1. USGS & WFRC Science Directions Ecosystems Climate change Water availability Energy Invasive species Wildlife health and disease Threatened and endangered species

2. 2 C3C3C3C3 The Pacific Northwest Climate Change Collaboration (C 3 )

3. 3 Climate Science Centers (CSCs) Delivering Fundamental Climate-Impact Science to Resource Managers on a Regional Basis Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) On-the-Ground Applied Science and Adaptive Management National Climate Change and Wildlife Center at USGS HQ & Eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) Provide scientific information, tools and techniques for land, water, wildlife and cultural resource managers to adapt to climate and ecologically-driven responses at regional-to- local scales. Deliver basic climate-change-impact science to Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Prioritize fundamental science, data and decision-support activities to meet the needs of the LCCs. Work with the LCCs to develop adaptive management and other decision-support tools for managers. Twenty-One Nationwide, functioning within a specific landscape as part of a national and international network Focus on-the-ground strategic conservation & adaptive management efforts at the landscape level. Management-science partnerships that inform integrated resource-management Link science and conservation delivery LCCs are cooperatives, formed and directed by land, water, wildlife and cultural resource managers and other stakeholders. Steering committees will include representatives from governmental entities (federal, state, tribal and local), as well as non-governmental organizations. On the Landscape: CSCs & LCCs

4. Responding to Climate Variability and Change: Trans-boundary Assessment & Services in the CRB Objective Develop and test a practical, integrated approach to organizing and collecting climate change information and science to support climate related decision making at both regional and local scales

5. Decision Analysis: What is it? A set of tools for structuring and analyzing complex decision problems An approach and process for making logical, reproducible, and defensible decisions in the face of: –Technical complexity –Uncertainty –Multiple, competing objectives A multi-disciplinary field of study drawing from statistics, economics, operations research, management science, psychology…

6. Numerous structured decision making “tools” exist Examples in use within the USGS include: –Joint Fact Finding (JFF) –Stakeholder Analysis (SA) –Decision Support Systems (DSS) –Adaptive Management DA has similarities with all these approaches, but some key differences –More quantitative than JFF –More decision-focused than SA –More process- focused than DSS –More comprehensive than AM

7. Decision Analysis at the USGS DA provides (at least) 3 key benefits –Multi-discipline integration: Acts as an integrating tool, to help bring together the varied research and researchers within the climate change community (and the broader technical community) –Information value: Helps to locate and/or highlight areas where significant gaps in data or knowledge limit understanding of the full nature of the issue being considered –Link to end-users: Provides a tangible and explicit link between science and the needs of customers and end-users of the science and data.

8. aka Research to Operations (R2O) = Integrated Approach to Global Climate Change WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory NOAA – NCDC, Western Region Climate Services Natural Resources Social Economic Demands Tribal Culture Population Growth Physical Biological Recreation Agriculture

9. Partners: Federal, State, and Local Agencies Universities Tribes Great Northern LCC, CSCs Stakeholders: Agriculture, Landowners, Local Recreation Tribes: Yakama, Colville, Umatilla Local Officials Habitat Physical Population Community Decision Support: Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effects Social & Economic Analyses Bioenergetics

10. Idaho Falls, ID (USGS, Science Apps., Climate Change) - $ Tacoma, WA (USGS Water Resources) - Physical models Yakima, WA (BOR) - Water management (RiverWare) CRRL - Habitat criteria, GIS, Decision Support Tools CRRL – Bioenergetics CRRL – Fish population analyses Ft Collins, CO (USGS) — Sociologist & Economist Habitat Aquatic Physical Population Community Bioenergetics Linking Models to Predict Climate Change Effects in the Yakima River Basin Socioeconomic analyses

11. Change Scenarios Early 2020- 2030 Base 1988 -2006 Mid 204 020 50 Watershe d Model RiverWare Temperatu re Model Hydrodyna mic Model GIS Modeling Habitat maps Habitat DSS Bioenerget ics Model (Growth) Salmon Survival Model (Population) Interactions (Community) Socioeconomic Analyses Linking Physical, Biological, Social & Economic

12. Jan. 2010 – Methow CC Team ~20 researchers/managers March 16-18, 2010 DA Stakeholders Workshop Developed Conceptual Model for the Methow Oct 2010 data compiled, modeling approach defined February 2011 DA Stakeholders Pilot project: Methow River Basin Columbia Basin R2O Workgroup [20+ Fed (US & Canada), State, Tribal & NGOs]

13. Why is R2O Working? Strong Multi-Disciplinary Approach Integrates Research at International, Regional, & Local levels Collaborative Research with Multiple Local Agencies High Stakeholder Involvement Stakeholders’ Workshops Online Decision Support Tools Decision Analysis Conceptual Models

14. Why USGS? Federal mission, experience/expertise, credibility, and multidisciplinary capability Significant NW presence—5 science centers, 3 Coop units, 2 Geology laboratories Expertise in biologic, cartographic/geographic, geologic, and hydrologic sciences Decades of scientific studies in the Basin, e.g., stream-gauging stations, salmonid research

15. Next Steps Continue on-the-ground science in the Methow Cross-Case comparison of studies in Columbia River Basin Select additional sites for monitoring Develop long-term anchor location Long-Term monitoring, paired with answering specific questions