1. Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration: Baselines, Supply Curves, Monitoring and Pilot Projects John Kadyszewski Winrock International September 30, 2003 West Coast Partnership

2. © Winrock International 2003 2 Summary  Objectives of Terrestrial Sequestration Component  Experience with Analytical Framework  Examples from California  Analysis of Pilot Projects

3. Objectives

4. © Winrock International 2003 4 Terrestrial Tasks  Baseline for Region  Supply Curves for Economic Assessment of Terrestrial Sequestration  Analysis of Pilot Projects

5. Analytical Framework

6. © Winrock International 2003 6 Creating a Baseline  Two components: Land-use change between two points in time Corresponding changes in carbon stocks  To obtain a trend need at least three points in time and two time intervals

7. © Winrock International 2003 7 General Approach for Carbon Supply  Divide lands into three main categories: Forests Rangelands Agriculture  Identify options for enhancing carbon sequestration for each category  Estimate: area available—how much and where amount of carbon sequestration over 20, 40, and 80 year periods

8. © Winrock International 2003 8 Overall Data Structure

9. © Winrock International 2003 9 Primary Data Sources  National Cooperative Soil Survey -- STATSGO  USGS 1:250,000 Digital Elevation Model  1992 USGS National Land Cover Data (NLCD) Project  USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis  National Atlas  GAP Analysis  National Wetlands Inventory

10. © Winrock International 2003 10 Example from Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi

11. © Winrock International 2003 11 Types of carbon projects Present land useProject activity Agriculture or non-forested landReforest with native species Agriculture or non-forested landCommercial plantations Agriculture or non-forested landSwitch crops Conventional tillageConservation tillage Grazing landsRestore riparian zones Managed forestsChange management goals Managed forestsProtect and conserve forests

12. © Winrock International 2003 12 Estimating the Supply of Carbon Offsets Categories of Costs:  Opportunity costs of producing carbon  Conversion costs  Measuring and monitoring costs  Land management costs  Contract costs  Risk aversion factors

13. © Winrock International 2003 13 Example: Afforestation

14. © Winrock International 2003 14 Pilot Project Options  Afforestation  Riparian management  Wildland fire management linked to biomass energy  Forest management (alternative silviculture)  Increase carbon intensity of agriculture

15. Examples from California

16. © Winrock International 2003 16 Baseline for Forests  Five sub-regions (1) North Coast, (2) South Coast, (3) North Cascade, (4) North Sierra, (5) South Sierra  Seven primary causes of change (1) Fire, (2) Harvest, (3) Development, (4) Regrowth, (5) Seasonal, (6) Other, (7) Unclassified

17. © Winrock International 2003 17 Reconcile Available Data

18. © Winrock International 2003 18 North Coast: Carbon Gains and Losses The gross changes in stored carbon between 1994 and 1998 for forests in North Coast California : CauseConsequence Fire - 388,000metric tons of Carbon Harvest - 1,025,000 Development - 2,400 Regrowth + 207,000 Seasonal + 200 Other - 48,000 Unclassified - 1,870,000 TOTAL - 3,126,200 metric tons of Carbon

19. © Winrock International 2003 19 Fire Between 1994 and 1998 WHR data for North Coast California records: 17,719 ha affected by fire 1,262 ha showed a large decrease in canopy coverage Gross loss in aboveground biomass carbon: Douglas-fir146,000 tons of Carbon Fir-Spruce2,000 tC Hardwoods118,000 tC Other Conifers122,000 tC Redwood0 tC TOTAL388,000 tC

20. © Winrock International 2003 20 Harvest Between 1994 and 1998 WHR data for North Coast California records: 28,411 ha affected by logging 3,803 ha showed a large decrease in canopy coverage Gross loss in aboveground biomass carbon: Douglas-fir212,000 tons of Carbon Fir-Spruce10,000 tC Hardwoods119,000 tC Other Conifers44,000 tC Redwoods640,000 tC TOTAL1,025,000 tC

21. © Winrock International 2003 21 Regrowth Between 1994 and 1998 WHR data for North Coast California records: 29,515 ha of forest regrowth 4,363 ha with a large increase in canopy coverage through regrowth Increases in aboveground carbon: Douglas-fir65,000 tons of Carbon Fir-Spruce5,000 tC Hardwoods35,000 tC Other Conifers33,000 tC Redwoods69,000 tC TOTAL207,000 tC

22. © Winrock International 2003 22 Baseline for Agricultural Lands Divided crops into two main classes based on carbon densities

23. © Winrock International 2003 23 Area of Agricultural Land in California – 1000 ha Overall loss of 232,00 ha or 5.3% of the 1987 area 88% of total loss

24. © Winrock International 2003 24 Change in Area by Land Use

25. © Winrock International 2003 25 Carbon Density Estimates of Agricultural Land  Fruit / Nut Orchards – 25 to 30 t C/ha  Vineyards – 10 to 12 t C/ha  Berries / Other Horticulture – 10 t C/ha  Cultivated Crops and Hay – 5 t C/ha

26. © Winrock International 2003 26 Carbon Stocks by Land Use Millions of tons of Carbon

27. © Winrock International 2003 27 Change in Carbon Stocks 1987-1997 High Carbon Density Croplands Low Carbon Density Croplands

28. Pilot Projects

29. © Winrock International 2003 29 Analysis of Pilot Projects Distribution of land by class in CA

30. © Winrock International 2003 30 Example: Carbon Sequestration Options for Rangelands  Convert to forests  Convert low carbon density to higher carbon density rangelands (e.g woodlands)  Change management practices Several management strategies are likely to increase soil C Re-seeding to deep-rooted perennial grasses Developing water supplies for livestock Intensive grazing management (water systems, additional fencing, etc)

31. © Winrock International 2003 31 Convert Rangelands to Forests Determine which rangelands could support forests—suitability analysis Land-use suitability analysis based on I. Biophysical factor-dependent suitability for forest habitats II. STATSGO production map-based models to map suitability for forage and biomass production Analysis of rates of carbon accumulation Economic analysis

32. © Winrock International 2003 32 Reconcile Available Data

33. © Winrock International 2003 33 Map of Rangelands and Forests

34. © Winrock International 2003 34 Inputs to GEOMOD Prepare Factor Maps Slope

35. © Winrock International 2003 35 Create Suitability Map for Forests

36. © Winrock International 2003 36 Least Most Approx. 9,472,000 hectares of suitable rangelands

37. © Winrock International 2003 37 Rangelands Suitable for Forest Growth (by suitability level)

38. © Winrock International 2003 38 Highest suitability for forest in selected montane chaparral areas.

39. © Winrock International 2003 39 Conclusion  Terrestrial component will provide common data on baselines and carbon sequestration options for the region  Analysis will identify leading candidates for pilot projects