1. Toward a vulnerability/adaptation methodology Thomas E. Downing Stuart Franklin Sukaina Bharwani Cindy Warwick Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford With contributions from Mike Brklacich, Carleton University Kirstin Dow, SEI and other colleagues

2. From theory to practice Political ecology of vulnerable food systems Actor Network Theory Early warning systems Disasters … Stakeholder analysis & engagement Livelihood vulnerability & exposure Adaptation evaluation Integrated analysis Key insights Implications for methodology

3. Political ecology Political ecology of vulnerable food systems Vulnerability is… –General attribute of system and particular instance of exposure Instantiation of a class –Dynamic, a process Emergence, resilience –Multi-level, occurring simultaneously at different spatial scales Glocal

4. Actor Network Theory Vulnerability emerges from the interactions of actors Boundaries of assessment are determined by character of network Coupled socio-ecological systems are complex Elements need to be understood in their context Actor Network Theory Early warning systems Disasters …

5. Stakeholder analysis & engagement Identify the actors –Motivations, constitution, regulation –Range of adaptive strategies and options –Capacities and constraints –Social networks and institutions Participatory, mental mapping of problem space Chapati exercise Stakeholder analysis & engagement

6. Livelihood vulnerability & exposure Priority complexes of vulnerability and hazards –Multiple stresses –Links to driving forces of vulnerability –Focus on reasons for concern: the priority outcomes of vulnerability –Gaps in knowledge Sensitivity matrix Links to climate scenarios and socio-economic scenarios Livelihood vulnerability & exposure

7. Livelihood sensitivity matrix CLIMATIC HAZARDSExposure Index DroughtDry spellsFloodsWarm spells ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Soil water ▲■▲◦ 75 Water supply ▲○■◦ 60 Wood fuel □◦○◦ 35 Grazing/fodder ■○■◦ 55 LIVELIHOODS Smallholders ▲□□◦ 60 Emerging farmers □○○◦ 40 Traders □◦■◦ 45 Impact Index73406020

8. Evaluating adaptation Range of choice and potential effectiveness –Options –Strategic planning –Adaptive capacity Matrix inventory and checklist Multi-criteria assessment Decision support Adaptation evaluation

9. Further (integrating) analyses Participatory evaluation of alternative futures Vulnerability profiles Risk assessment Participatory policy exercises; role playing Knowledge elicitation and multi-agent modelling Integrated analysis

10. Morning exercises Objectives –Present core methodology for grounded vulnerability assessment –Build on your expertise and confidence in conducting V&A studies –Demonstrate facilitation techniques Process –Brainstorm on livelihoods –Groups on livelihood sensitivity –Report back –Groups on socio-economic scenarios –Report back –Lunch and evaluation –Further methods –Wrap up

11. From global to local scenarios Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism Conventional Worlds Barbarization Great Transitions policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism

12. Food Insecurity: Present Status

13. Food Insecurity: Links to Climate Change -Disaster morbidity -Social infrastructure losses -Consequences of availability & access +Adaptation interventions? -Energy costs & reduced irrigation -Loss of market infrastructure in disasters -Increased transport costs +Local sourcing for markets -Heat stress & water shortage -Drought & storms -Salinisation & loss of coastal lands + CO2 enrichment

14. Food Insecurity: Worst Case?

15. Toward a risk assessment: Reasons for concern Climate Agricultural exports National food balance Food security in vulnerable households Prolonged drought risks High Moderate Low Present

16. Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia

17. Knowledge elicitation Sub stages involved in the process Knowledge elicitation can be a big bottleneck in the research process KnETs are tools which can automate parts of this process

18. Rapid prototyping Interactive questionnaire Identify salient aspects of knowledge domain Java

19. Rule induction program Rule induction algorithm creates rules based on data from questionnaire

20. Learning program Stakeholders participate in pruning and refining resulting decision trees using a ‘learning’ program

21. Agent based modelling

22. ABM: social behaviour and climate change Individual Social Reference runsMH climate change Neighbourhood sourcing: individual=30%, social=80%. All runs: 1973=100. Scenarios broadly correspond to EA reference scenarios: individual (alpha and beta); social (gamma and delta).

23. Two approaches Compared Agent based:  Discontinuities  Large range of results Dynamic simulation:  Smooth scenarios  Modest range

24. Conclusion Expert-stakeholder teams need a common framing and language of narratives Vulnerable food systems are complex: choosing the priority risks in actor networks is essential The end-to-end analysis should guide selection of methodology at each stage: often simple methods are powerful Political ecology of vulnerable food systems Actor Network Theory Early warning systems Disasters … Stakeholder analysis & engagement Livelihood vulnerability & exposure Adaptation evaluation Integrated analysis