1. ‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA Coleen Vogel REVAMP, Wits University

2. Average ΔT° Average Δpreip (%) A mixed picture of uncertainty and agreement. Regions of low consensus related in part to spatial positioning of boundaries of the climate processes Africa A1B: 1980–1999 and 2080–2099 IPCC AR4: Fig 11.2

4. Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses. (Ch 9)

5. Some synergies between DRR and CCA DRR National priority + local with institutional basis for implementation; DRR National priority + local with institutional basis for implementation; Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance EW; Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance EW; Use knowledge etc. to build resilience; Use knowledge etc. to build resilience; Reduce underlying risk factors; Reduce underlying risk factors; Strengthen disaster preparedness. Strengthen disaster preparedness.

6. CCA – Bali Action Plan Risk assessments – national risk information, socio-econ data on vulnerability and capacity. Risk assessments – national risk information, socio-econ data on vulnerability and capacity. Early Warning Systems – risk knowledge, monitoring and warning and dissemination and communication, response. Early Warning Systems – risk knowledge, monitoring and warning and dissemination and communication, response. Risk reduction plans - integrated plans and programmes for sectors and areas of development (Source: Informal Task Force, Inter-agency Standing Committee + ISDR) Risk reduction plans - integrated plans and programmes for sectors and areas of development (Source: Informal Task Force, Inter-agency Standing Committee + ISDR)

7. Frameworks DRR and Vulnerability assessments used in CC/variability coping/adaptation assessments

8. Double Structure of Vulnerability (After Bohle, 2001) THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE OF VULNERABILITY Crisis and Conflict Theory Political Economy Approaches The “external” side of vulnerability The “internal” side of vulnerability EXPOSURE COPING Human Ecological Perspectives Entitlement Theory Models of Access to Assets Action Theory Approaches

9. Disaster Management and Vulnerability Increased Vulnerability Exposure to Hazards and Threats LACK OF RESOURCES Income Assets Social Support Etc… LACK OF ACCESS Health Services Credit Information Etc… Reduced Capacity to Cope and Recover (After Wisner)

10. RISK ASSESSMENTS: some methods

11. A possible approach e.g. Sustainable Livelihoods (Carney, 1999 and others)

13. Previous assessments – strategies and lessons Coping (adaptation????) implies a range of strategies – several assessments show few exist – most involve modifications of existing food sourcing and other livelihood patterns. Coping (adaptation????) implies a range of strategies – several assessments show few exist – most involve modifications of existing food sourcing and other livelihood patterns. Strategies may be harmful – sale of livestock may erode subsistence bases. Strategies may be harmful – sale of livestock may erode subsistence bases. Most involve selling their futures to survive. Most involve selling their futures to survive. Strategies not static and what worked in one climate shock/stress period may not work in others – need for constant updating. Strategies not static and what worked in one climate shock/stress period may not work in others – need for constant updating.

14. BASELINE HAZARD + COPING OUTCOME + = Household Economy and Livelihoods (Sawdon, RHVP)

15. HAZARD/SHOCK FACTORS : The Siavonga Valley in Zambia experienced poor rainfall during the 2000/2001 cropping season leading to a 40% drop in maize production compared to previous year. Government plans to provide food assistance. RISK OF FOOD INSECURITY: APPROPRIATE RESPONSE: The vulnerability assessment shows that maize is not an important source of food in the Siavonga Valley. Therefore a 40% drop in maize production alone, will not put households at risk of food insecurity. VULNERABILITY OF AFFECTED HOUSEHOLDS: A food aid intervention in this situation is not appropriate (after Fews, 2003) Purchase Gifts Wild food Labor for food Other crops Maize Millet Sorghum 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0 1999/20002000/2001 This graph shows how poor households in the Siavanga Valley obtain food and cash % of minimum annual food requirements PROBLEM SPECIFICATION Projected crop production this year compared to last year ……….111% of last year ………………..59% of last year ……………….138% of last year ……………98% of last year

16. Moving to towards quantification and costing? Some disaster loss inventories

17. Date Area most affected Loss (R. Mil)* Mar 2003 Eden212.4 Dec 2004 Eden > 60.0 Apr 2005 Overberg5.0 Aug 2006 Eden & Overberg 510.5 Jun 2007 West Coast 128.3 Nov 2007 Eden & Overberg 1.2 bn Jul 2008 West Coast 74.1 Nov 2008 Overberg & Cape Winelands 943.0 Total Four districts R. 3 bn in 6 yrs Severe weather events - costly for W. Cape * Not adjusted for construction inflation

18. African context What ‘drives’ change and enhances risks? What ‘drives’ change and enhances risks? How are we COPING currently? How are we COPING currently? What makes us RESILIENT to change? What makes us RESILIENT to change? Can we ‘ramp’ these activities up – MOVE from COPING to ADAPTATION? Can we ‘ramp’ these activities up – MOVE from COPING to ADAPTATION? Can we begin to draw together cases from sectors (water, health, energy) or types of interventions (humanitarian) that help us to begin to say something about coping and adaptation? Can we begin to draw together cases from sectors (water, health, energy) or types of interventions (humanitarian) that help us to begin to say something about coping and adaptation?

19. Decision-making in uncertainty – improved EWS

20. Alternative EWS ways of thinking (Source: Heads Up! EWS for climate water and weather, M. Glantz, 2007).

21. Alternative Typologies of Forecast Systems (adapted from Vogel and O’Brien, 2003) Producer focus Producer focus Focus on communication as key issue (e.g. probabilistic and deterministic forecasts) Focus on communication as key issue (e.g. probabilistic and deterministic forecasts) Some focus on user environment Some focus on user environment Some focus on how end-users manage risk Some focus on how end-users manage risk Some focus on how end-users cope and adapt to changing environments. Some focus on how end-users cope and adapt to changing environments. User focus Focus on user environment Focus on ‘widening the discourse’ Focus on obtaining data from end users about their risk environment Serious reflection on ‘institutional issues’, ‘degree of fit’ (e.g. Orlove and Tosteson, 1999). Conventional Alternative Approach

22. Forecasts – moving to integration? Institutional perspective (Policies and state apparatus) Understanding clients and their ‘risk management’ strategies Understanding the user’s risk environment ‘User perspective’ Forecasters’ perspective Do I understand the info requirements of the end user? In what ‘risk environment’ is my client based? How can we create a dialogue to collectively reduce risk? Possible outcomes -Enhanced risk-reduction measures - Integrated plans of action - Design of ‘more appropriate institutional’ processes for effective use of forecasts.

23. December 2004 first quarterly climate preparedness meeting, Suid Bokkeveld, South Africa Heiveld Co-op senior member describing August – December 2004 climate and agriculture conditions; and leading discussion about coming quarterly & longer term strategies. Discussion follows presentation and critique of updated seasonal forecast, and of the agricultural advisory (both national scale products; here being evaluated and discussed at the sub-district scale). (source: Archer, E.R.M., Oettlé, N.M., Louw, R ) ‘is the product less important than the process?’

25. Community-Based Climate Risk Management Plans Courses and Training Establishing Institutional Platforms BOUNDARY ORGANISATIONS ‘DEVELOPMENT’ ‘GOVERNMENT’ ‘ACTION-BASED’ Settlement Committee Connect platforms to ongoing development activities

26. Issues for consideration Risk assessment: How can we integrate risk assessment with planning and other ongoing assessments? Enhanced sustainability of VAs. Risk assessment: How can we integrate risk assessment with planning and other ongoing assessments? Enhanced sustainability of VAs. Early Warning: Can we say more about climate variability? In Africa living with variability key priority. ENSO, rain days, inter and intra-seasonal rainfall; seasonal and decadal assessments….etc. Early Warning: Can we say more about climate variability? In Africa living with variability key priority. ENSO, rain days, inter and intra-seasonal rainfall; seasonal and decadal assessments….etc. Resilience and capacity: Can we begin to show costs and tradeoffs between and for linking climate change, adaptation and development? Doing MORE with LESS! Resilience and capacity: Can we begin to show costs and tradeoffs between and for linking climate change, adaptation and development? Doing MORE with LESS!

27. Acknowledgements Gary Sawdon, RHVP. Gary Sawdon, RHVP. Save the Children + various others. Save the Children + various others. Ailsa Holloway, DiMP, UCT. Ailsa Holloway, DiMP, UCT. IPCC Africa chapter authors, WG II, 2007. IPCC Africa chapter authors, WG II, 2007. Emma Archer, CSIR. Emma Archer, CSIR.