1. Spatial Distribution of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation: Operational Applications in South Carolina Jason Caldwell South Carolina State Climatology Office PAMS Mini-Technical Conference March 11, 2005

2. Atlantic Ocean Gulf of Mexico Appalachian Mountains Geographical Influences on Tropical Precipitation UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT MOISTURE SOURCE

3. TROPICAL STORM STEERING MECHANISMS SURFACE: Central Atlantic Sub-Tropical High Extends E-W with weakness SE US 500 MB: Westerly Flow East Coast Mid-Level Ridge over Central Atlantic 250 MB: Trough over Midwest and Great Lakes

4. SOUTH CAROLINA TROPICAL STORMS CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD (1871-2004) TOTAL STORMS:145 PERIOD CONSIDERED:1950-2003 TOTAL 1950-2003:70 STORMS SELECTED TOTAL:54 STORMS

5. SELECTED TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AFFECTING SOUTH CAROLINA 1950-2003 Division 1 Division 2 Division 3 Division 4 Division 5 Division 6 Division 7 Division 8

6. SITE SELECTION 20 DAILY SITES SPACING: 50-75 km

7. DIVISION 1 Offshore Track Helene1958 Ginny 1963 Amy1975 Arthur1996 4 STORMS

8. DIVISION 2 East Florida Landfall South Carolina Track Cleo1964 Dora1964 Dawn1972 ST 31976 David1979 Isidore1984 Chris1988 Jerry1995 Kyle2002 9 STORMS

9. DIVISION 3 West Florida Landfall Offshore Track Donna1960 Gladys 1968 Dennis1981 Ana1991 Irene1999 5 STORMS

10. DIVISION 4 Panhandle Florida Landfall Inland/Coastal Track TS 71953 Florence 1953 Flossy1956 TS 11957 Brenda1960 Alma1966 Alma1970 Agnes1972 Kate1985 Allison1995 Josephine1996 Earl1998 Gordon2000 13 STORMS

11. DIVISION 5 Gulf Coast/Panhandle Landfall Track East of Appalachians Hilda1964 TS 1 1965 Babe1977 Marco1990 Helene2000 5 STORMS

12. DIVISION 6 Gulf Coast/Panhandle Landfall Track West of Appalachians Danny1985 Andrew 1992 Alberto1994 Beryl1994 4 STORMS

13. DIVISION 7 Direct Landfall South Carolina Able1952 TS 31953 Hazel1954 Cindy1959 Gracie1959 Hugo1989 6 STORMS

14. DIVISION 8 Direct Landfall North Carolina Connie1955 Diane1955 Ione1955 TS 61961 Diana1984 Bertha1996 Bonnie1998 Floyd1999 8 STORMS

15. Division 4 MeanObserved Precipitation TROPICAL STORM BONNIE * Used Panhandle/Inland-Coast Track (Division 4)

16. HURRICANE CHARLEY * Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7) Observed PrecipitationDivision 7 Mean

17. Observed PrecipitationDivision 6 Mean HURRICANE FRANCES * Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)

18. Observed PrecipitationDivision 7 Mean HURRICANE GASTON * Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7)

19. Observed PrecipitationDivision 6 Mean HURRICANE IVAN * Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)

20. Observed PrecipitationDivision 2 Mean HURRICANE JEANNE * E Florida/SC Track (Division 2)

21. BONNIE GASTON FRANCES JEANNEIVAN CHARLEY ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGY Observed – Climatology = ERRORS RANGE -4.60 (over-predicted) to +7.10 (under-predicted) AVERAGE ERROR 2004 -2.11 (Camden) to +0.56 (Calhoun Falls)

22. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK ------------------------------------------ UNDER-PREDICTS PRECIPITATION IN UPSTATE FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS & ALONG TRACK; OVER PREDICTION MORE SPORADIC ADDITIONAL STATIONS ADDED TO ACQUIRE MORE COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION (REMOVE WALTERBORO, CAMDEN) COMPARISON OF CLIMATOLOGY TO HPC FORECASTS PREPARATION OF MAX/MIN DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FLOOD FORECAST ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL WORK WITH SERFC STATISTICS, STATISTICS, STATISTICS …… 15 th CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (SAVANNAH, GA – JUNE 2005)