1. A Perspective on NASA Ames Air Traffic Management Research Jeffery A. Schroeder Federal Aviation Administration* * Formerly NASA Ames

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3. Take-away Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past contributions Present research has wide coverage, with separation assurance and traffic flow management being the top two thrusts We need to enable more first-look operational evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives 3

4. Plan Past key contributions: –Traffic Management Advisor –Continuous descent arrivals in traffic –Direct-To Present research: –Separation assurance –Broad sketches of the other research Suggested future modifications: –Need more first-look operational evaluations –Need to resolve the vertical trajectory prediction conundrum 4

5. Past Key Contributions Traffic Management Advisor BOS ZNY MEM ORD PHX LAX SFO DEN MSP DFW ATL FLL Minneapolis Seattle Salt Lake Oakland Los Angeles Albuquerque Denver Houston Kansas City Memphis Fort Worth** Atlanta Miami Jacksonville Chicago Boston Cleveland Washington Indy LAS MIA SEA TMA installed, metering achieved SLC PDX MCO IAD EWR STL CVG DTW LGA JFK MDW Adjacent- center- metering sites IAH CLT PHL Throughput increased by 3-5% NASA version 5

6. Past Key Contributions Continuous Descent Arrivals in Traffic 6

7. Past Key Contributions Direct-To 900 flying minutes saved a day at Ft. Worth Center* 7

8. Controller Interface Data Link Voice Link Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) TCAS Trajectory Automation (2-20 min time horizon) Safety Assurance (0-3 min time horizon) Present Research Separation Assurance 8

9. Controller Interface Data Link Voice Link Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) TCAS Trajectory Automation (2-20 min time horizon) Safety Assurance (0-3 min time horizon) Present Research Separation Assurance 9

10. Cleveland Center New York Center Fort Worth Center Present Research Separation Assurance 10

11. Unique aircraft pairs Time (min) Today’s operations Aircraft pairs Present Research Separation Assurance 11

12. One controller doing work of 5 to 10 people. No loss of separation. Unique aircraft pairs Aircraft pairs Time (min) Today’s operations Automation detects, human resolves Aircraft pairs Time (min) Present Research Separation Assurance 12

13. Controller Interface Data Link Voice Link Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) TCAS Trajectory Automation (2-20 min time horizon) Safety Assurance (0-3 min time horizon) Present Research Separation Assurance 13

14. 69 Operational Errors NASA’s tactical safety assurance Today’s conflict alerting Alerts, % Present Research Separation Assurance 14

15. Broad Sketches of the Other Research Traffic flow management –Improving sector demand predictions –Translating weather for effective re-routing –Developed structure for deciding on proper controls –Investigating aircraft-by-aircraft and aggregate optimization –Developed framework for collaboration Terminal area –Capacity increases with improved time-based scheduling –Alternatives for conflict detection and resolution in terminal area –Simulations of very closely spaced parallel approaches 15

16. Broad Sketches of the Other Research Configuring airspace dynamically –Multiple algorithms used to draw geometries with a recent bakeoff showing Voronoi-genetic showing most promise –Examined combining under-utilized sectors in Cleveland showing a potential reduction of 40% in sector-hours Airport surface –Optimizing surface flow showing 50% reductions in total taxi time –Real-time simulation investigated controller acceptability of precision-taxi operations 16

17. Broad Sketches of the Other Research Trajectory prediction uncertainty –Developed framework for requirements, comparisons, and communication of trajectory engines System-level analysis –Completed broad studies and have been integrating sets of two technologies (i.e., surface/terminal, TFM/separation) 17

18. How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?* 18

19. How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?* ASDE-XSTARSCPDLCWAASLAAS (GBAS) ConOps To Commisioning (years) 10 20 19 *2004 GAO report

20. How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?* *2004 GAO report ASDE-XSTARSCPDLCWAASLAAS (GBAS) ConOps To Commisioning (years) 10 20 TMA 20

21. Flights Altitude prediction error, ft Mean = 240 ft σ = 2100 ft n = 1636 Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors 21

22. Flights Altitude prediction error, ft Mean = 240 ft σ = 2100 ft n = 1636 Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors 22

23. Trajectory Prediction Errors 8400 ft 43,000 ft 46,000 ft Current uncertainty in 5 mins 23

24. Trajectory Prediction Errors 8400 ft 43,000 ft 46,000 ft Likely required uncertainty in 5 mins 30,000 ft 1000 ft Current uncertainty in 5 mins 24

25. Summary Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past contributions Present research has wide coverage, with separation assurance and traffic flow management being the top two thrusts We need to enable more first-look operational evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives 25