1. The Green Cockpit Decision support for realising sustainable public transport Significant B.V. EMTA 19 april 2013 Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga

2. 2 About us Significant Formerly part of Pricewaterhouse Coopers – in 2003 management buy out Currently about 50 researchers and consultants Different markets: »Healthcare »Mobility – public transport »Security and Justice »Social affairs »Business management public sector Koen Idzenga Managing Consultant Mobility Public Transport tenders Client-supplier relationship Fanatic field hockey player (but low level…) Paul van Hooff Managing Consultant System Dynamics Modeler of Green Cockpit Model Building Part-time geography teacher

3. 3 | 12 Background of the Green Cockpit Originally developed for the Arnhem Nijmegen City Region To support the tender of the Public Transport concession (10 years contract 2012 - 2022) Calculates ‘best ratio’ between environmental quality and costs for Public Transport Authority (PTA) Step by step development with focus on regional issues How can we translate (political) goals to realistic requirements for the buses in Arnhem Nijmegen City Region?

4. 4 Some questions to start with Who is working on sustainable public transport at the moment? What is your approach? What are the difficulties that must be overcome? How much more are you willing to pay for ‘clean’ buses? How do political goals balance with financial risks?

5. 5 | 12 Many questions, opinions and uncertainties Biogas Electrical Diesel Hydrogen ReliabilitySuitability Technical Price development Functional or technical specifications Commercial interests of operators Future number of passengers Political wishes Tank to wheel/ well to wheel Context Tender strategy CostsEmission Availability Future technical develop- ments Budget

6. 6 | 12 The Green Cockpit ……...Helps PTAs to get a better understanding of the costs involved »Buses, fuel consumption, infrastructure etc...Shows the development in (environmental) costs for each year in each scenario (Total Cost of Ownership - TCO)...Enables PTA’s to compare different scenarios of different bus types...Can deal with ranges in values in case of uncertainties (sensitivity analysis, what if...)...Helps PTAs to optimize their greening transition in time...Is the beginning of the discussion about sustainability in public transport (support of your decision).

7. 7 | 12 Some modelling conventions “If a future value of a variable is uncertain, you can decide not to model it, but then you’re sure that the results aren’t correct” “Leaving out a variable that is difficult to estimate, is like giving it the only value that it doesn’t have: zero”.

8. 8 | 12 Process & stakeholder management and creating support The Green Cockpit – an overview Calculation Module (System Dynamics) Characteristics techniques Characteristics concession Physical quantities Characteristics bus fleet Feedback & optimization

9. 9 | 12 Settings in the Green Cockpit Fuel consumption Range per fuel type Fuelling or charging time Reliability Characteristics techniques Characteristics concession Physical quantities Characteristics bus fleet Emission per fuel type (Well to Wheel) such as CO 2, NO x and PM 10 Shadow prices for each emission type (health, plants and buildings) Time-table Route length Number of routes Route characteristics (city / region) Number of buses in city and region Prices of buses Maintenance costs Additional infrastructure e.g. charging & filling stations

10. 10 | 12 Importance of the process Interests of departments (mobility, environment, economics, finance) Dealing with lack of reliable data Interests of operators and vehicle industry Which data are correct and which are not? → sanity check »Data about (real) fuel consumption »Development of prices Which risks can a PTA manage and which not? »Fuel prices? »Reliability of techniques Technical but also a political field

11. 11 | 12 Results

12. 12 | 12 For different buses in the fleet: costs Total costs Fuel costsDepreciationMaintenance

13. 13 | 12 Different environmental outcomes CO 2 PM 10 NO x

14. 14 | 12 Some technical details of Vensim Software for building System Dynamics Models Powerful ‘engine’: »checks the dimensional integrity »sensitivity analysis (e.g. Monte Carlo) Graphical representation of the model Interface with MS-Excel »Input in Excel: data can be changed for different scenarios »Output in Excel

15. Any questions?

16. Paul van Hooff Koen Idzenga paul.van.hooff@significant.nlkoen.idzenga@significant.nl +31 6 4403 0083 +31 6 5361 9950 Significant B.V. Thorbeckelaan 91 3771 ED Barneveld The Netherlands Telephone: +31 342 40 52 40 Contact details