1. Domestic Energy Demand: Projections to 2030 Diana Dixon

2. Current situation: Domestic energy consumption end use Space heating is the largest energy use Space heating has been reducing over the last few years Appliances have increased since the 70’s

3. Current situation: Domestic energy end use and fuel 2007 Gas currently represents: 84% of space heating 79% of water heating Consumer switching cost from Gas to Electricity / renewable energy will be high Source: domestic 2009, DECC

4. Key drivers of domestic demand Conservation Population Number of Households Appliances & trends Outdoor temperature

5. Looking forward: Population & Housing statistics 27.8m households by 2031 (+252,000 households p.a.) Currently 26% elderly heads of household 32% in 2031 (6 percentage points increase) 13% people live alone now 18% will live alone in 2031 Source: http://www.communities.gov.uk

6. Space Heating: Conservation measures 95% of suitable households have loft insulation 85% of housing stock has double glazing 40% suitable properties have cavity wall insulation Assumption: 0.5% improvement p.a. due to new housing stock & conservation measures

7. Space Heating: Heating-degree days Reduction of 300 days over 40 years = 0.29% p.a. Assume that this trend will continue Source: sciencedirect.com

8. Space Heating: Aging population Implications: More people at home during the day Lower metabolic rates Thermal comfort defined as between 20-24°C by WHO 10% increase in space heating in 6% of households. For every 1 °C of energy the requirement is 8-10 °C in the UK Negligible impact on space heating ~0.93% by 2030 Source: Office of national statistics

9. Lights & Appliances Assumptions: Number of major appliances per household is close to saturation point. New technology / consumer electronics demand will be off-set by: – Reduced average household size – Improved energy efficiency – Low energy lightbulbs - assume a switch over of 100% by 2020 (395,524 x 20%) Water & Cooking: Assume that ratio for cooking and water will remain flat - aligned to no of households

10. Domestic Projections to 2030 (Using the current ratios for the domestic uses)