3. HDI trends

4. Poverty headcount ( based on national poverty line; not $1/day ) 13% Actual Required

5. Under-five mortality rate 47

6. U5MR trends 1990-2006 n=190 U5MR in 1990 U5MRin06 1990: All: 76 / Pak: 130 2006: All: 55 / Pak: 97

7. U5MR by quintile

8. Net primary enrollment ratio 100%

10. DHS 2006/07: highlights Almost 1 in 10 children die before age 5; little changed since 2000 39% of deliveries by a health professional Supplementation of breast milk starts early Proportion of children fully immunized 47% in 2006; down from 53% in 2001 44% of ever-married women have heard of AIDS Contraceptive prevalence rate plateau-ed at 30% Total fertility rate high at 4.1 – population dividend

11. Pakistan: selected indicators by maternal education Avg=39% Avg=47% Avg=44%

12. Next Asian Tiger or failed state? Serious economic turbulence ahead Unsustainable deficits – trade, budget, energy, water Under-investment in basic services Recent growth spurt is ending; led to bubbles in real estate, KSE, consumer demand Growth without development – limited structural change & little trickle-down Polarized society – many dimensions

13. Democratic or autocratic ? Sickly democracy in Asia: 2006 saw military coups in Thailand & Fiji; 2007 saw non-elected caretaker gov. in Bangladesh & state of emergency in Pakistan EIU rank of 27 Asian countries (2007): 16 flawed democracies; 10 authoritarian; 1 full democracy Democratic practice within political parties is poor. Dynastic parties are symptom thereof Democracy in Pakistan will continue to wobble – muddling through Space needed to make it home-grown