2. Presentation Outline Project Purpose and ApproachProject Purpose and Approach Review of Existing Modeling Practice in CaliforniaReview of Existing Modeling Practice in California Methods for Improving Sensitivity to Smart- Growth StrategiesMethods for Improving Sensitivity to Smart- Growth Strategies Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations

3. Project Purpose and Approach

4. Motivation for Project  Continued growth is increasing congestion  There is interest in Smart Growth  Local jurisdictions need to be able to evaluate strategies  Local models may not have adequate sensitivity

5. Purpose of Project Examine how local modeling is being done in CaliforniaExamine how local modeling is being done in California Assess how sensitive local models are to Smart GrowthAssess how sensitive local models are to Smart Growth Identify what supplemental methods are being usedIdentify what supplemental methods are being used Prepare recommendations for how to improve Smart-Growth sensitivityPrepare recommendations for how to improve Smart-Growth sensitivity

6. Smart Growth Strategies Create Range of HousingCreate Range of Housing Create Walkable NeighborhoodsCreate Walkable Neighborhoods Mix Appropriate Land UsesMix Appropriate Land Uses Provide a Variety of Transportation ChoicesProvide a Variety of Transportation Choices Direct Development Towards Existing CommunitiesDirect Development Towards Existing Communities Take Advantage of Compact Building DesignTake Advantage of Compact Building Design

7. Desired Smart-Growth Effects Providing opportunities to satisfy travel needs at nearby destinations with shorter vehicle trips, trip chaining or non-motorized travelProviding opportunities to satisfy travel needs at nearby destinations with shorter vehicle trips, trip chaining or non-motorized travel Using land use to create trips with origin- destination pairs that are more easily traveled by alternative modesUsing land use to create trips with origin- destination pairs that are more easily traveled by alternative modes Providing better and more attractive conditions for travel by alternative modesProviding better and more attractive conditions for travel by alternative modes Providing economic incentives for use of alternative modesProviding economic incentives for use of alternative modes

8. Project Approach Literature ReviewLiterature Review  Conventional Transportation Modeling, Local Models, Smart-Growth Sensitive Methods Survey of Local Jurisdiction PracticeSurvey of Local Jurisdiction Practice Case Study of Six Local JurisdictionsCase Study of Six Local Jurisdictions Sensitivity Test of Supplemental Method – 4D ElasticitiesSensitivity Test of Supplemental Method – 4D Elasticities Formulation of Conclusions and RecommendationsFormulation of Conclusions and Recommendations

9. Review of Existing Modeling Practice in California

10. Uses of Models in Local Land-Use and Transportation Planning Visioning/Policy DevelopmentVisioning/Policy Development General Plan or Specific PlanGeneral Plan or Specific Plan Transportation Investment Study/Corridor StudyTransportation Investment Study/Corridor Study Traffic Impact or Development Fee ProgramTraffic Impact or Development Fee Program Traffic Impact Analysis/CEQA Analysis for New DevelopmentTraffic Impact Analysis/CEQA Analysis for New Development

11. Urban Transportation Modeling System (UTMS) Use in local modeling is almost universalUse in local modeling is almost universal Often referred to as the “Four-Step Model” – Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice and AssignmentOften referred to as the “Four-Step Model” – Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice and Assignment Trip-basedTrip-based Network-basedNetwork-based Zonal representation of trip makersZonal representation of trip makers

12. Common UTMS Limitations Affecting Smart-Growth Sensitivity Trips not relatedTrips not related Consideration of only vehicle tripsConsideration of only vehicle trips No modeling of walking and bicyclingNo modeling of walking and bicycling Fixed vehicle trip rates by land use typeFixed vehicle trip rates by land use type Land use not affected by travel patternsLand use not affected by travel patterns Design not reflected in choiceDesign not reflected in choice Zonal aggregation of decision makersZonal aggregation of decision makers Focus on peak-period travelFocus on peak-period travel Zones often too largeZones often too large

13. Common Practice by Local Jurisdictions In area with large MPO –SANDAG, SCAG, MTC, SACOGIn area with large MPO –SANDAG, SCAG, MTC, SACOG  Usually a focused version of MPO model  May also be a focused version of County (CMA) model  MPO models multimodal and include non-motorized modes  Local models may not carry all functions of MPO model In area with medium MPOIn area with medium MPO  Often the same model  Usually includes mode choice In area with small MPO or no MPOIn area with small MPO or no MPO  Often most basic UTMS vehicle-trip model

14. Methods for Improving Sensitivity to Smart-Growth Strategies

15. Methods for Increasing Smart-Growth Sensitivity Enhancement of UTMS ModelsEnhancement of UTMS Models Activity-Based Travel ModelsActivity-Based Travel Models Fully Integrated Land Use and Transportation ModelsFully Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Application of Smart-Growth Trip and VMT Elasticities (4Ds) Estimated from Aggregate Zonal DataApplication of Smart-Growth Trip and VMT Elasticities (4Ds) Estimated from Aggregate Zonal Data

16. UMTS Improvement Options Smaller ZonesSmaller Zones Mode ChoiceMode Choice Non-Motorized Modes in Mode ChoiceNon-Motorized Modes in Mode Choice Modeling Multiple Modes of Access to TransitModeling Multiple Modes of Access to Transit Distribution Sensitive to Multi-Modal OptionsDistribution Sensitive to Multi-Modal Options Auto Ownership Sensitive to Land-UseAuto Ownership Sensitive to Land-Use Income StratificationIncome Stratification Disaggregate Simulation of HouseholdsDisaggregate Simulation of Households Activity-based ModelingActivity-based Modeling Integrated Transportation-Land Use ModelingIntegrated Transportation-Land Use Modeling

17. Logical Progression of Steps to Improve UTMS Sensitivity

18. 4D Elasticities Density – population and employment per square mileDensity – population and employment per square mile Diversity – ratio of jobs to housingDiversity – ratio of jobs to housing Design – pedestrian environment variables including street grid density, sidewalk completeness and route directnessDesign – pedestrian environment variables including street grid density, sidewalk completeness and route directness Destination (Accessibility) – mean travel time to all other destinations with a regionDestination (Accessibility) – mean travel time to all other destinations with a region 5th D – Distance – Distance to rail transit5th D – Distance – Distance to rail transit

19. 4D Elasticity Values Source: Criterion Planners/Engineers With Fehr & Peers Associates, October 2001.

20. Sensitivity Test of 4D Elasticities Demonstrated reduction in vehicle trips and VMT from Smart-Growth strategiesDemonstrated reduction in vehicle trips and VMT from Smart-Growth strategies Changes in transit service had no effect on 4D resultsChanges in transit service had no effect on 4D results Sophisticated UTMS modeling methods capture most of the 4D effectsSophisticated UTMS modeling methods capture most of the 4D effects

21. 4D Experience in California Software optionsSoftware options  GIS-based planning packages – INDEX and PLACE 3 S  Post Processor to UTMS Model ApplicationsApplications  INDEX – Fresno and Madera Councils of Government, City of Sacramento, Sacramento County, San Luis Obispo County  PLACE 3 S – Sacramento Region  UTMS Post Processor – Sacramento Region, Contra Costa County, Humboldt County, Development Proposals

22. Conclusions and Recommendations

23. Conclusions – Local Model Sensitivity to Smart Growth Strategies Many local jurisdictions use models that have almost no sensitivity to Smart-Growth strategiesMany local jurisdictions use models that have almost no sensitivity to Smart-Growth strategies Local jurisdictions using MPO or CMA models with more sophisticated features capture some of the Smart-Growth sensitivity but it is not clear how much is capturedLocal jurisdictions using MPO or CMA models with more sophisticated features capture some of the Smart-Growth sensitivity but it is not clear how much is captured GIS systems making more sensitivity possibleGIS systems making more sensitivity possible

24. Conclusions – Supplemental Methods 4D elasticities capture some of the Smart-Growth sensitivity but not all4D elasticities capture some of the Smart-Growth sensitivity but not all The 4D elasticities capture some unknown trip- reduction effects as a result of correlationThe 4D elasticities capture some unknown trip- reduction effects as a result of correlation The 4D elasticities can estimate reduced VT and VMT that are assumed to be made on transit, even if there is little or not transit serviceThe 4D elasticities can estimate reduced VT and VMT that are assumed to be made on transit, even if there is little or not transit service

25. Recommendations – Local Jurisdiction Practice Local jurisdictions with moderate-to-high- sensitivity models should strive to continue to enhance their models for Smart-Growth sensitivityLocal jurisdictions with moderate-to-high- sensitivity models should strive to continue to enhance their models for Smart-Growth sensitivity Local jurisdictions with low-sensitivity models should consider using a 4D post processorLocal jurisdictions with low-sensitivity models should consider using a 4D post processor

26. Recommendations – Research Development and Training More research, development and training needed to support more sophisticated modeling by local jurisdictionsMore research, development and training needed to support more sophisticated modeling by local jurisdictions More research should be conducted to support 4D elasticities or other post processing methodsMore research should be conducted to support 4D elasticities or other post processing methods