1. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Uncertainties of heavy metal pollution assessment Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E

2. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Outline  Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  Models intercomparison  Model results vs. measurements  Back trajectory analysis  Emission reporting for model application

3. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Model sensitivity analysis Pb and Cd total deposition Hg total deposition

4. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Model uncertainty Lead and cadmium Uncertainty 30-40% Uncertainty 20-50% Model intrinsic uncertainty without effect of emissions Mercury

5. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Review of MSC-E models Workshop on review of MSC-E models on HMs and POPs (Moscow, 2005) Purpose to establish whether MSC-E models on HMs and POPs are state of the art and fit for the purpose of evaluating long-range transport of HMs and POPs. Conclusions [ ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4 ]  The model parameterization is appropriate for operational modelling of heavy metal concentration and deposition in Europe  HM depositions, concentrations and transboundary fluxes of HMs calculated by MSC-E model corresponded well with other transport models  Other models, such as the MSC-E model, underestimated air and precipitation concentrations of Pb and Cd when using official emission data

6. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Model intercomparison Cd air concentration (2000) MSCE-HM CMAQ Comparison of MSCE-HM and CMAQ models for Pb and Cd CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model) – 3D chemical transport model developed in US EPA www.cmaq-model.org Conditions of comparison:  Anthropogenic emissions based on official and ESPREME data  Identical meteorological data for 2000  Similar initial and boundary conditions

7. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Model intercomparison Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2000) based on ESPREME data MSCE-HM = 0.62 Obs CMAQ = 0.68 Obs 30-40% underestimation based on official data MSCE-HM = 0.32 Obs CMAQ = 0.32 Obs 70% underestimation

8. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Wind re-suspension of HMs HM re-suspension scheme:  Parameterization of mineral dust suspension [Marticorena and Bergametti, 1995; Alfaro and Gomes, 2001; Gomes et al., 2003]  Parameterization of sea salt aerosol production [Monahan et al., 1986; Gong, 2003]  Detailed soil properties data [ISLSCP (Initiative II), http://islscp2.sesda.com]  Measured HM content in soil [FOREGS, Salminen et al., 2005] Total emission and re-suspension of Pb in Europe (1990-2005) Contribution of Pb re-suspension: 20% in 1990, 60% in 2005

9. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Evaluation vs. observations 20-30% underestimation Mod = 0.70 Obs Corr = 0.57 Mod = 0.45 Obs Corr = 0.51 Lead Annual mean concentration in precipitation based on official emissions data (2005) Cadmium 30-50% underestimation Cd Pb

10. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Analysis of discrepancies Daily mean Cd concentration in air (2005) Svratouch, Czech Republic (CZ1) 01.09.2005 06.11.2005

11. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Neuglobsow, Germany (DE7)Kotinen, Finland (FI93) Analysis of discrepancies Monthly mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2005) Cd emissions in 2005 FI93 Density of back trajectories February 2005 FI93

12. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Kotinen, Finland (FI93) Analysis of discrepancies Monthly mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2005) Cd emissions in 2005 FI93 March 2005 Density of back trajectories

13. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Hg Mod = 0.78 Obs Hg Mod = 0.94 Obs Evaluation vs. observations Hg concentration in air (2005) Hg concentration in precipitation (2005)

14. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 HM emissions reporting Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for Pb (2005) Reported Pb emission data for 2005:  Gridded data: 23 countries  Gridded sector data: 15 countries  National totals: 30 countries According to submission 2007

15. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 According to submission 2007 HM emissions by sectors Cd emissions in large European countries (2005)

16. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Non-Party emission estimates Comparison of official data with non-Party estimates of Pb emissions in 2000 (TNO, ESPREME) Germany According to submission 2007 Germany

17. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Emission uncertainty Emissions data uncertainties reported by countries (Pb) CountryEmission [t/y]Uncertainty Austria14-52% +110% Finland24-25% +26% United Kingdom118-30% +40% France13453% Denmark6266% Germany107? Russia355? Ukraine195? …

18. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Gaps of HM officially reported emissions data  Incomplete data on emission totals  Limited data on spatial distribution  No data on temporal variation  Scarce data on emission uncertainty  … What data should be used to fill the gaps?

19. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Summary (1)  Estimated intrinsic model uncertainty is 30-40% for Pb and Cd and 20-50% for Hg  Modelling results are highly sensitive to emissions data for Pb and Cd and to boundary conditions for Hg  MSCE-HM and CMAQ models agree in underestimation of measurements (up to 70%) when officially reported emissions data is used  Assessment of wind re-suspension allows improve agreement between modelling results and measurements  Current model-to-measurement comparison demonstrates 20- 30% underestimation for Pb and 30-50% underestimation for Cd. Modelling results for Hg well agree with observations

20. TFMM & TFEIP Workshop, Dublin, 2007 Summary (2)  Reported emission inventories for heavy metals are incomplete and of limited value in terms of model applications  Procedure of the reported emission gaps filling is to be elaborated