1. Florida Multimodal Statewide Freight Model
Model inputs and structure, and integration with regional truck-touring models
Presented by Colin Smith, RSG

2. Freight Issues in Florida
Florida has a large, complex, multimodal freight transportation system:
15 deep water seaports (international trade moving through Florida’s ports was valued at $56.9 billion in 2009)
2,786 miles of rail lines carried 1.6 million carloads and 83 million tons of freight in 2008
Miami International Airport first in the nation in total international freight tonnage
Strategic Intermodal Systems Highways cover 4,300 of roadway and carry the majority of the state highway system’s truck traffic
Issues include how to manage and invest in the system to meet statewide objectives:
For example – SIS objectives: economic competitiveness, interregional connectivity; efficiency; choices; intermodal connectivity; energy, air quality, and climate; and emergency management and safety
Florida does have a number of specific freight issues that are important, related to the complexity and size of its transportation system, its coastal location with a large number of ports, and its proximity to central and south America which make Miami Airport such an important air freight handling airport

3. Motivation for the Model
Enhance Florida’s statewide freight forecasting capabilities
AND
Provide a framework to support enhancements to regional freight forecasting
New model is multi-modal
Includes updated commodity flow information
More detailed framework: additional policy sensitivity
Represent characteristics of firms and shipments
Represent supply chains and distribution channels
Capture trip-chaining that occurs
New model is multi-modal
Models all shipments to, from, and within Florida
And movements by all modes: truck as existing model, but also now models freight movement by rail, water, and air, and connections between those all of the modes so that we can understand multi-modal trips, e.g. imports by water to truck, truck-rail-truck shipments, etc.
Includes updated commodity flow information
Currently using FHWA’s freight analysis framework data, updated in 2007
FDOT is purchasing updated Transearch data
More detailed framework: additional policy sensitivity
Represent characteristics of firms and shipments
Represent supply chains and distribution channels
Capture trip-chaining that occurs
Model framework is design to allow us to evaluate and answer more policy questions
Freight demand is based on the business needs of firms in Florida, and so we represent the locations, sizes, and industries of firms in Florida is detail
Freight is moved in individual shipments and not annual commodity flows, so we model shipments specifically
How shipments are moved through intermodal and distribution centers is important and so those supply chains and distribution channels are explicitly modeled
Framework is also designed to connect to more detailed regional truck touring models that capture the patterns of truck deliveries in urban areas. 3

4. Model Structure Overview
Florida Statewide Model
Conversion to modal trip tables
Passenger Model
National Supply Chain Model (Firms, Shipments, Modes)
National/Statewide Networks
Regional Model
Pax Model
Regional Truck Touring Model
Regional Networks
The new statewide model is being integrated into the existing statewide model framework, alongside the passenger model. The freight demand model produces shipments by mode and origin/destination that are (for the statewide model) converted to modal trip tables and assigned to national and statewide networks. The detailed shipment information from the statewide model can also be transferred to regional models to support a regional truck touring model. The overall framework that we are transferring to Florida is based on a combined national and regional model framework implemented in Chicago for CMAP, the Chicago MPO, and FHWa, so it is explicitly designed to support regional modeling.

5. Model Integration: CUBE
The freight model is implemented in R and Cube. Cube provides the overall structure, skimming and assignment, and gives control to R which runs the demand model components via a command line window.
Cube Window
This screenshot shows the model running, with Cube starting a command window to run the R script. Status messages are printed to the command window and logged in a file and R also uses a progress bar to show how far through the current model component it is.
Command Line Window
Progress Bar Window

6. Statewide Model Framework
Firm Synthesis
Supplier Selection
Goods Demand
Distribution Channel
Shipment Size
Mode and Transfers
Network Assignment
Synthesizes a list of businesses in Florida, the rest of the US, and an international sample
Connects suppliers to buyers based on the commodities produced by the supplier and consumed by the buyer
Distributes commodity flows amongst the paired suppliers and buyers
For each buyer/supplier pair, selects whether shipments are direct or involve intermediate handling (intermodal, distribution center)
For each buyer/supplier pair, converts an annual commodity flow to shipments by size and frequency
Introduce how the model works:
The first three components deal with firms and the interactions between them
Firm synthesis creates a list of business locations in Fl, the US, and internationally. These represent the origins and destinations of freight shipments
Supplier selection models the process of firms who need specific commodities as inputs to their business (buyers) select a supplier to buy that commodity from. That connection from supplier to buyer then represents a link over which commodities will flow
In goods demand, we have an input of observed aggregate freight demand that is then allocated to those connections between suppliers and buyers
2. The next three steps deal with how those commodity flows between each supplier and buyer are turned into shipments and moved.
- Distribution channel: models whether shipments are moved through an intermodal center or distribution center
- Shipment size model divides the annual flows between each supplier and buyer into individual shipments
- The mode and transfer models then estimates some key characteristics of the shipment movement: the mode for each leg of trip and the transfer locations
3. Finally, the model converts the modal shipment movements into a demand for vehicle movements (e.g. trucks, rail cars) and assigns those to the transportation networks to estimate truck volumes on roads, rail car volumes, and demand at intermodal connections.
Identifies the mode for each leg of the trip from supplier to buyer and the transfer locations
Assign the trips to the multi-modal networks based on the mode(s) and transfer locations 6

7. What is “firm synthesis”?
A model that creates a complete set of “agents” that represent firms
The model embodies each of those firms with individual characteristics that affect the behavior that we are interested in modeling:
Where are they located?
How large is the firm?
What industry do they operate in?
Which commodities do they consume?
Which commodities do they produce?
Concept is similar to population synthesis used in activity-based models
In this case, households are the agents that are created
They are described in terms of location, size, etc.
An introduction to firm synthesis, which is the first component of the model 7

8. What is “supplier selection”?
Model to establish business relationships between producers (suppliers) of goods and consumers (buyers) of goods
Data
FAF industry to commodity crosswalk, to determine type and percentage of produced commodity by each industry type
Make and use tables in the 2007 Benchmark Input-Output Account, to determine type and percentage of commodities used by each industry
Firms’ characteristics and amount of incoming and outgoing commodities are from the first module
Rule-based system:
Uses “Distance” and “Establishment size of both supplier and buyer” as the input criteria for assessing the suitability of candidate suppliers
The output is the probability of partnership for each pair of supplier-buyer
The firms with the highest probability of partnership will be selected as the best suppliers
An introduction to Supplier Selection, which is the second component of the model

9. Model Geography: Firms and Commodity Flow Data
Individual firms are synthesized in each traffic analysis zone (TAZ) based on employment data for each industry (County Business Patterns, InfoUSA, QCEW, and other local data)
TAZs provide detailed spatial resolution, particularly in metropolitan areas, for firm locations and shipment origins and destinations
Firm locations. Each point represents one business
TAZ system provides detailed spatial resolution for firm locations, shipment origins and destinations, and connections to the transportation networks
TAZ systems covers Florida, plus additional buffers into AL and GA (not shown on map)
Commodity flow data is relatively aggregate but the model incorporates the much more detailed firm location data and this is used to disaggregate the commodity flows
Across the whole of Florida, the TAZs provide a significant level of detail
FAF commodity flow data, a model input, uses large FAF zones. This is disaggregated down to TAZs based on the firm allocations and economic (input/output) data 9

10. Freight in Florida: Commodity Flows to and from Florida
If we look at the geographical distribution of domestic movements from Florida, adjoining states in the South East dominate, with important flows to the northeast and California
Going back to our example of flows to the Houston area:
Cereal grains is the largest movement from Florida to Houston, at 800,000 tons per year
Following this there are several commodities that are actually largely imported from international origins to Florida, transhipped and then moved on to Houston: that accounts for much of the Fuel Oils, Gasoline, and Coal products
Looking at the overall mode shares (for the domestic movements), truck dominates, with some multimodal and rail trips. But, once we look at the combination of commodity and mode, we see cereal grains, the top commodity, is almost entirely moved by rail or a combination of modes (e.g. truck to rail)
The model is designed to capture those commodity specific mode choices 10

11. Freight in Florida: Freight flows to the state
Now looking at flows to Florida, we see a different distribution, with energy rich states becoming important alongside our neighboring states.
Looking again at our Houston example, other coal and petroleum products account for most of the flows from Houston to Florida, as would be expected given the number of refineries in that region. In this case, pipelines are important, along with trucks and rail.
Again, when we look at the connection between commodities and modes: pipelines are used for most of the other coal and petroleum products, with rail being used for some of the bulk commodities and trucks for the higher value goods 11

12. Model Geography: Transportation Networks
Model covers all of Florida and includes transportation networks across the USA and internationally
Uses newest multi-modal transportation networks: highway, rail, seaports and waterways, airports, and intermodal connections
Uses network information to understand transportation costs (including storage costs during transshipment), capacities, and resulting travel times
Model outputs vehicle and commodity flows on networks and through intermodal/distribution centers
The new model is multi-modal and as such incorporates new networks for each mode and for the connections between modes
Key freight locations such as ports, airports, and truck terminals are represented
A rail network connects to those locations. Movements of freight by rail is modeled based on observed data from the USDOTs Waybill data
FDOT has just developed a new highway network using up to date information from NAVTEQ 12

13. Mode and Transfers Model
Shipments are Assigned to the Following Modes:
Truck (Full truck load, less than truck load)
Rail (Carload, intermodal)
Water (international, non-international)
Air
Paths for shipments with complex distribution channels, i.e. that are not direct from shipper to buyer, can use a single mode or be multimodal, e.g.
Truck – Truck
Truck – Rail – Truck
Truck – Air – Truck
Truck – Water
The mode and transfer model includes all freight modes. And also combinations of modes – as a shipment may use more than one mode to get from supplier to buyer, for example, truck to rail to truck.
The choice of mode is made based on the full logistics cost of the path from supplier to buyer and not just the transportation costs.
Seller
Buyer
Truck
Air
Rail
Water
Annual logistic costs calculated for all available mode-paths for each firm pair
The least cost mode-path selected for each firm pair

14. Sample Model Sequence #1
sequence that illustrate how the model represents shipments.
Start with the a business connection between a wholesaler in Tampa and a Pharmaceutical manufacturer in Houston, TX.
We don’t model spatial detail in Houston, but we do in Florida: in this case, the wholesaler is located in Southwest Tampa, close to MacDill air force base
The total commodity flow between Houston and Tampa for Pharmaceuticals is 1110 tons, of which a proportion is allocated to this buyer-supplier pair based on the size of the firms: in this case 60 tons
In this case we identify that the freight will be moved through one distribution center en route from supplier to buyer, located in the Tampa region
In the shipment size model, we estimate a shipment size of 20,000lbs, which means 6 shipments over the course of the year to deliver the total annual flow between the supplier and buyer. This means that on any given day there is an approximately 2% chance of that shipment taking place.
The shipment is moved entirely by truck (20,000lbs equates to approximately a full truck local of pharmaceuticals) 14

15. Policy Sensitivity
Changes in land use and economy: spatial distribution of employment and mix of industries
Changes in transportation supply
Major highway network changes
Changes to rail capacity
Intermodal facility capacity changes, including deep water ports and airports
Changes in distribution center network
New facilities (with regional significance)
Changes in commodity flow origins and destinations outside Florida
Explain the policy sensitivity built in to the model and how FDOT plans to use this new tool
- This slide describes the broad types of policies that the model is sensitive to 15

16. Connections to the Statewide Model
Statewide model is designed to be integrated with regional models
Statewide model develops shipment paths including transfer locations and modes, and intercity truck movements
Statewide model outputs include a list of regional shipment pick-ups and deliveries that must be met in a given day: that can then be microsimulated in the regional model
Possible modes of operation
Integrate complete statewide model with regional model and run models sequentially
Provide an extract from the statewide model of regional shipment demand and run the regional model separately
The statewide model is specifically designed to be connected to the regional models, either in a remote way – via an output produced by the statewide model that is transferred and used as an input to the regional model – or in a more directly integrated manner in the same software application

17. Regional Model Framework
Shipment Flows (from Statewide Model)
Vehicle and Tour Pattern Choice
Number of Tours and Stops in each Tour
Stop Sequence and Stop Duration
Tour Start Time and output of Trip List
The regional model framework which was developed as part of the project that RSG did with FHWA and CMAP connects directly to the national scale supply chain model that is being implements in Florida.
The model is somewhat analagous to the tour building part of the activity based model. Instead we are trying to connect together delivery and pick up activities at businesses as opposed to facilitating work and shopping and other personal activiities.

18. Truck Touring Models
Chicago Region
Warehouse 120
Implemented in Chicago region for CMAP as part of FHWA project
Model links shipment deliveries and pick-ups together into truck tours
Tours built for different truck types and for different patterns: single stop, single loops, several returns to warehouse
Output is a trip schedule similar to that from an activity-based model of personal travel
Delivery tour
An example of how a truck tour is constructed.

19. Regional Policy Sensitivity
Regional model input is the output from the statewide model, so statewide model’s sensitivity feeds through to regional model
Local (more detailed) distribution of employment and land use affects local truck travel patterns
Local changes in transportation supply, non-truck traffic growth causing congestion, and resulting truck travel times
Local policies such as truck routes, truck prohibitions, delivery windows, and size limits can be modeled
An explanation of regional model policy sensitivity

20. Questions? Colin Smith, RSG colin.smith@rsginc.com 802-295-4999
Questions?