1. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France Jim Hurrell and Martin Visbeck Co-Chairs, International CLIVAR SSG Introduction to CLIVAR SSG-18 Strategy and Evolution of CLIVAR

2. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France Mission To observe, simulate and predict changes in Earth’s climate system with a focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Copyrigh t NASA

3. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France CLIVAR Objectives Understand the causes of climate variability on intra-seasonal to centennial time-scales through observations, analysis, and modeling Improve predictions of climate variability and change associated with both internal and external processes Extend observational climate record through assembly of quality-controlled paleoclimatic and instrumental data sets

4. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France CLIVAR – A Global View

5. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France

6. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France Seven CLIVAR Research Imperatives Top priorities of CLIVAR panels and working groups, with metrics and specific deliverables, for ~5 years Developed and evolving around several criteria; scientific importance; opportunity to make considerable progress; benefit from international coordination Imperatives map across: CLIVAR panels and working groups WCRP and other international research programs Therefore, they help inform ongoing discussion on future evolution of WCRP Progress and reports against imperatives (Wed)

7. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France CLIVAR Imperatives Anthropogenic Climate Change Natural variability versus forced change Climate sensitivity and feedbacks Regional phenomena (e.g., ENSO, AMOC, …) Extremes (Complete CMIP5) Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Determine predictability Mechanisms of variability Role of oceans Adequacy of observing system Initialization Quantifying prediction uncertainty (Building pan-WCRP links) (Complete CMIP5, CHFP, CORE) Intra-to-Seasonal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Monsoons (and ENSO, TAV, …) ISV/MJO Quantifying prediction uncertainty (Building pan-WCRP and WWRP links) (Complete CHFP)

8. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France CLIVAR Imperatives Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs Analysis and Evaluation “Climate Process Teams” (process studies) (Building links pan-WCRP, IGBP) (Complete CORE) Capacity Building Summer schools and topical workshops Expert training Data Synthesis and Analysis Ocean Coupled Data Assimilation Systems (Building links – carbon, biogeochemistry, ecosystems) Ocean Observing System Development, implementation and system design Advocacy for sustained observations (Building IGBP links for Carbon, Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems)

9. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France Future WCRP Structure and JSC-32 (Ghassem) Action Item: Discuss Strategy and Evolution

10. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France SSG-17: Much CLIVAR science falls under “ocean-atmosphere”  Ocean basin panels, GSOP, WGOMD  Ocean observing system (partnership with GOOS/IOC, JCOMM, etc.)  Modeling/prediction of coupled system (WGSIP, WGCM) given the dominant role of oceans on these time scales But some CLIVAR activities are broader and do not, including existing interactions with GEWEX (Wed), SPARC, CLIC, …  monsoons; extremes; annular modes; sea level rise; etc.  some (atmospheric) process studies (e.g., VOCALS, YOTC)  interactions with other international programs (e.g., IGBP) Strategy and Evolution of CLIVAR

11. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France Questions, Issues: o What research should be the focus of an “ocean- atmosphere” project? Strategy and Evolution of CLIVAR Grand Challenges as “banners” for WCRP science: o How are they defined? o Which ones should we propose? o Is it time to “downsize” CLIVAR? If so, where do some current (broader) activities fit in the restructured WCRP? o Is it time to change the name of CLIVAR? Pros and cons? o How to ensure needed interactions/partnerships (across WCRP, IGBP, WWRP, ESSP, etc.) in a restructured WCRP? o How to ensure critical and effective interfaces for regional programs (e.g., VACS, VAMOS, AAMP, etc.)?

12. CLIVAR SSG-18 2-5 May 2011 IOC/UNESCO, Paris France Welcome! … and thanks to IOC