1. M & E Estimating Numbers of Vulnerable Children IATT, April 2007 Beverly Nyberg, Ed.D.

2. The NEED for Estimating the Number of Vulnerable Children No reliable estimates for the number of vulnerable children Estimates for the numbers of orphans are available from any cause due to HIV/AIDS Countries and service providers need to know In order to plan for appropriate services and resources Give accurate information: National Tracking Indicator #38 (UNGASS) - total number of OVC in a country is the denominator for the percent of OVC served.

3. Possible Models for Estimations Depend on definitions All vulnerable children regardless of cause? What is the cut off line for vulnerability? Is there a global definition or a country specific? Child vulnerable due to specific causes HIV/AIDS – how to define? High prevalence vs. low prevalence countries Poverty Others: Armed conflict, malnutrition/famine, etc.

4. Possible Models for Estimations Depends on information available Population-based surveys DHS/AIS etc Non-household based children Lag-time for orphan calculations Depends on level of analysis National or sub-national estimates

5. Discussion of Defining Vulnerability Katie Schenk, Population Council Research in Zambia

6. Defining the Estimated Population All vulnerable children regardless of cause? What is the cut off line for vulnerability? Is there a global definition or a country specific? Child vulnerable due to specific causes HIV/AIDS – how to define? High prevalence vs. low prevalence countries Poverty Others: Armed conflict, malnutrition/famine, etc.

7. Determining Level of Estimation National Easier to estimate No confidentiality at risk Sub-national More beneficial for targeted planning

8. Possible Models for Estimations – Prior Conclusions All vulnerable children regardless of cause A global definition Children vulnerable due to specific causes HIV/AIDS – how to define? All children potentially vulnerable due to HIV/AIDS Children whose vulnerability has actually increased due to AIDS, e.g. orphaned or parents sick in last 3 months. Poverty – below poverty line Use information available Restricted to definition of the survey instrument Prefer lowest level possible, e.g. district Necessary for planning purposes

9. THANKS….