1. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 2013–2014 Update Tenth Edition Joshua S. Goldstein Jon C. Pevehouse Chapter Four: Foreign Policy

2. U.S. officials watch Osama bin Laden raid, 2011.

3. 4.1 Making Foreign Policy Models of Decision Making Individual Decision Makers Group Psychology Crisis Management

4. MyLab Media Video. The New European Union. http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_mpsk_vcs_1/vcs 3_6_new_european_union.html Please log into MyPoliSciLab with your username and password before accessing this link.

5. Models of Decision Making Rational model Alternatives to rational model

8. Individual Decision Makers Decision makers are individuals. National leaders and rational decisions Individuals: differing values and beliefs, unique personalities Individual vs. rational Impact of the individual

9. Foreign policies often deviate from rationality as a result of the misperceptions and biases of decision makers and populations. Here, in 2012, North Korea’s new dictator Kim Jong-Un rides a roller coaster that could symbolize the West’s efforts to curtail his country’s nuclear weapons program. These weapons will pose a much greater threat if Kim, who took over in 2011, is an irrational madman than if he turns out to be a shrewdly rational actor. FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS

10. Positive and negative effects Psychological dynamics that occur within groups Structure of decision-making process Group Psychology

11. Both individual misperception and group psychology encourage overconfidence and excessive optimism among decision makers. This general tendency in every government especially marked the period of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Here, President Bush declares victory on an aircraft carrier, May 2003. FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS

14. Crisis Management Crises – outcomes and time frames Groupthink, psychological stress, sleep deprivation

15. Crisis management takes a high toll psychologically and physiologically. President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia seems to show this strain in 1992— the beginning of years of civil war and perpetual crisis in that country. Shevardnadze, formerly a Soviet foreign minister, had returned to lead his native Georgia when the Soviet Union dissolved. He left office in 2003 after a popular uprising against corruption. WORKING UNDER STRESS

16. 4.1 Making Foreign Policy Q. The rational model of decision-making involves which of the following sequence of steps? A. Clarify goals, order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action. B. Order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals, clarify goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action. C. List alternatives to achieve goals, order goals by importance, investigate consequences of alternatives, clarify goals, and choose the course of action. D. Clarify goals, list alternatives to achieve goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, order goals by importance, and choose the course of action.

17. Answer: A. Clarify goals, order goals by importance, list alternatives to achieve goals, investigate consequences of alternatives, and choose the course of action.

18. In the rational model decision making process uncertainty rarely plays a role. True-False

19. Answer: False.

20. Bureaucracies Interest Groups The Military-Industrial Complex Public Opinion Legislatures 4.2 Domestic Influences

21. Simulations: You are the Prime Minister of Japan. http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_longman_media_1/201 4_mpsl_sim/ir/simulation.html?simulaURL=4 Please log into MyPoliSciLab with your username and password before accessing this link. MyLab Media

22. Bureaucracies Diplomats Interagency tensions

23. Interest Groups Coalitions with common interest who attempt to shape decision outcomes Lobbying

24. Foreign policies are affected by the pulling and tugging of various domestic interest groups. Legislatures respond to these groups, constituencies, lobbyists, and media. These interested parties pack the U.S. Senate confirmation hearing for the new secretary of state, John Kerry, in 2013. DOMESTIC BREW

25. The Military Industrial Complex Interlocking network of governmental agencies, industrial corporations, and research institutes Eisenhower’s concern about “unwarranted” influence Revolving door

26. Public Opinion Democracies vs. authoritarian governments Propaganda Journalists Levels of public – “mass,” attentive, elite Rally ’round the flag syndrome Diversionary foreign policy

27. Israeli Prime Minister and Palestinian negotiator, 2012.

28. Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe

30. Legislatures Relationship with executive – presidential vs. parliamentary systems Power of the Purse

31. Foreign policy outcomes result from processes at several levels of analysis, including the roles of individuals. All these levels were in play in 2011–2013 as Syria went from protest to civil war. In 2012, this father chose, like many other individuals, to take up arms and join rebel fighters. The country’s future will be decided in no small part by the aggregation of many such individual decisions. INDIVIDUAL CHOICE

32. 4.2 Domestic Politics Q. Of the following goals, which are pursued by bureaucrats in the foreign policy decision-making process? A. Groupthink B. Liberal analysis C. National goals D. Political domination

33. Answer: C. National goals

34. True-False The planning and pursuit of the Cold War played in integral role in the conception and growth of American military-industrial complex.

35. Answer: True

36. Chapter Discussion Question Given the definitions of groupthink, and using the example of the Iran-Contra affair, and of the war in Iraq, what are at least two examples of groupthink pulled from recent headlines?