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Danielle Hultquist—from Sweden Bin Liu– from China March 11, 2009
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History about Currency Basic Knowledge about Currency Exchange Why Different Exchange Rates? Historical Movements in Exchange Rates Risks Related to Foreign Exchange Arbitrage Currency Exchange Investment
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5 tribes 5 basic goods-Fish, Bread, Pork, Egg, Firewood 5 different needs
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Barter – Trade without money ◦ Game The Ancient Sumerians ◦ 3500 BC First paper money ◦ 10 th century China
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What is foreign exchange rate? Direct Quote vs. Indirect Quote American Terms vs. European Terms U.S. dollar as the base currency
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(http://www.x-rates.com/)
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World Money System-historical Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
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School of Salamanca- 16 th century Spain ◦ Equivalent coins traded at different rates ◦ PPP The Swedish Riksbank – 18 th century ◦ Daler bank notes Gold Standard ◦ Currency convertible into pre-set, fixed quantities of gold
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The Swedish Riksbank – 18 th century
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WWI & WWII ◦ Disorder in international finance Bretton Woods ◦ July 1944 ◦ Agreement: Fixed exchange rates, quotation on gold or US dollars ◦ Breakdown Floating exchange rates and imbalance
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Historical Movements cont’d
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World Money System-historical Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) The Law of One Price: the theory states that, in ideally efficient markets, identical goods should have only one price. Different Exchange Rate Appreciation & Depreciation Big Mac!
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(http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_ id=13055650)
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Interest rate risk Country risk Exchange rate risk Adverse movements in exchange rates
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Triangular arbitrage Cross-rate An example: Condition: Starting: US$10,000 CD$1.24/US$1.00 AU$1.53/US$1.00 AU$1.23/CA1.00 CD$/US$*AU$/CD$≠AU$/US$ 1.24*1.23=1.5252<1.5353 How to make money?
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1. Buy Australian dollars with US dollars: US$10,000*(AU$1.53/US$1)=AU$15,300 2. Buy Canadian dollars with Australian dollars: AU$15,300/(AU$1.23/CD$1)=CD$12,439 3. Buy US dollars with Canadian dollars: CD$12,439/(CD$1.24/US$1)=US$10,031
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Dealers --large international banks and other financial institutions No organized exchange --linked Brokers: facilitate most of the transactions Necessary information: daily periodicals & services In general: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD52pBu93gY&feat ure=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD52pBu93gY&feat ure=related
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Why do we need currency? How currencies are quoted? Why are there different exchange rates? Historical movements through time What are the risks with currency exchange? What’s arbitrage? How to invest in currency?
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Sincerely, Danielle Hultquist Bin Liu
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