1. McGraw-Hill © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Trend Forecasting Chapter Five Core Concepts in Fashion by Laura Portolese Dias

2. 5-2 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Fashion forecasting is the process of predicting new trends – Can use a variety of tools to predict – Newspapers, magazines

3. 5-3 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Trickle-up theory – Thorstein Veblen  First discussed the idea of social classes – George Simmel  Believed in order for a fashion to become accepted, it first had to be accepted by upper classes  Theory suggests because people in the lower classes prefer to associate themselves with upper class, they would eventually adopt the fashion of upper class.  At this point in time, the fashion would be rejected by the upper class  Theory is hard to apply today because there are many more classes and social structure is much different

4. 5-4 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Trickle up theory – Sometimes called the “bottom up theory” – Fashion begins in lower classes of society and trickles up, then is eventually copied by upper classes – Example: Grunge fashion

5. 5-5 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Trickle across theory – Sometimes called the horizontal flow theory – Believes that fashion flows in between social groups – Sometimes lower classes will start trends, and sometimes upper classes will start trends – Mass communication, such as the internet allows people to see all forms of fashion

6. 5-6 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting External Forces effecting fashion – Social – Economic – Political – Legal – Technological – Global

7. 5-7 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Social issues effecting fashion – Age  View on age has changed  People in the upper years of their life are more active  No longer an “expected” outfit for someone based solely on age – Women in the workforce  Needed new types of clothing as women entered the workforce

8. 5-8 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Social Issues effecting fashion – Men and their appearance  Acceptable for men to care about their appearance  Special creams, lotion and clothing developed for men in recent years – Ethnic influences  Ethnic clothing can inspire new designs  Immigrant population of United States brings many forms of fashion together

9. 5-9 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Economic Forces effecting fashion – Consumer income  Total income – The amount a person makes from all sources  Personal income – The total amount of income less social security taxes  Disposable income – The total amount of income less federal income taxes, sales tax and property tax  Discretionary income – The amount left over after paying all taxes and paying for necessities like food and rent

10. 5-10 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Economic Forces effecting fashion – Purchasing power  The amount of goods which can be purchased for the same amount of money in a given time period  Things effecting purchasing power: – Interest rates – Inflation – Recessions and layoffs

11. 5-11 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Legal forces effecting fashion – Mergers or acquisition  The sale of a company to another – Importing regulations  Importing is when a good from one country is sent to another country – Requirements for labeling  Concerns how products should be labeled  For example, requirements for care of garment

12. 5-12 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Political forces effecting fashion – Clothing can change depending on which party is in office Technological forces effecting fashion – Ability to communicate new fashions quicker through internet – Use of computers for garment design – Online shopping

13. 5-13 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Global Issues effecting fashion – Trade agreements  For example, NAFTA made it possible to have clothing made in Mexico and ship to the United States at no additional cost

14. 5-14 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Tools to predict fashion – Primary data  Data which is researched and gathered  For example, watching for new trends at a local club would be considered primary data – Secondary data  Newspapers, magazines, websites-any type of data which was not gathered by you

15. 5-15 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Collection reports – Expensive but helpful – Shows sketches, textile selection and other important data about a designer collection Trend reports – Similar to collection reports, but focus on a variety of designers, rather than just one designer

16. 5-16 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Color services – Research and predict new upcoming colors Websites – Can research websites to find out about street trends Trade publications – Any publication made for a specific industry – Women’s Wear Daily is an example

17. 5-17 Chapter Five Trend Forecasting Music/Movies/Television – Watching what stars are wearing can be a good predictor of new fashions Street Fashion – Watching what the everyday trendsetter is wearing can help predict fashion