1. MAGISTER ILMU KOMPUTER (M.Kom)
B U D I L U H U R U N I V E R S I T Y
POST GRADUATE PROGRAM
MAGISTER ILMU KOMPUTER (M.Kom)
IT PROJECT MANAGEMENT

2. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
Ruth Drayer

3. Project risk
An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on at least one project objective (time, cost, scope, quality)
May have one or more causes
May have one or more impacts
Risk conditions could include aspects of the project’s or organization’s environment that may contribute to project risk
2010

4. A risk response generates by the project team as it is worth
Known risk
Identified & analyzed
A risk response generates by the project team as it is worth
Unknown risk
Can not be managed proactively
2010

5. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
Plan
Plan Risk Management
Identify Risk
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Response
Control
Monitor and Control Risk
2010

6. 1 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT Deciding how to: approach conduct
the risk management activities for a project
The risk management planning process should be completed early during project planning process
The level of detail will vary with the needs of the project
2010

7. Questions Addressed in a Risk Management Plan (Schwalbe: ITPM Table 11-2).
2010

8. Terms:
Contingency plans are predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs
Fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high impact on meeting project objectives
Contingency reserves or allowances are provisions held by the project sponsor that can be used to mitigate cost or schedule risk if changes in scope or quality occur
2010

9. PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT INPUT OUTPUT Project scope statement
Cost management plan
Schedule management plan
Communications management plan
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets
Risk management plan
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Planning meetings & analysis
2010

10. PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT INPUT
Project scope statement (see: scope definition)
Project management plan (Cost; schedule; communication)
Enterprise environmental factors
Policy statements express risk attitudes and tolerance
Organizational process assets
Risk categories, risk tolerance
Templates
Roles and responsibilities, and authority levels of decision making
2010

11. PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Planning meetings & analysis
Project manager
Selected team members & stakeholders
Person in the organization with responsibility to manage the risk planning and execution
2010

12. PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT OUTPUTS
Risk management plan, includes:
Methodology:
approaches, tools, data sources to perform risk management
Roles & responsibility
Defines the lead, support, and risk management team membership for each type of activity,
Assign people to these roles
Clarifies their responsibilities
2010

13. PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT OUTPUTS (cont)
Risk management plan, includes (cont 1):
Budgeting:
Assigns resources
Estimates costs
Included in the project cost baseline
Timing:
When?
How often?
Establishes risk management acivities to be included in the project schedule
Risk categories:
Risk Breakdown Structure
Templates, based on previous projects
2010

14. PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT OUTPUTS (cont)
Risk management plan, includes (cont 2):
Definitions of risk probability & impact
Probability & impact matrix
Revised stakeholder tolerance
Reporting formats
Tracking (whether & how risk management processes will be audited)
2010

15. PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT OUTPUTS: Risk Breakdown Structure
2010

16. Relative or numerical scales are shown
PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT OUTPUTS: Probability & Impact Matrix for 4 Project Objectives
Defined conditions for impact scales of a risk on major project objectives
Project Objective
Relative or numerical scales are shown
Very low / 0,05
Low / ,10
Moderate / 0,20
High / ,40
Very high / 0,80
Cost
Insignificant cost increase
< 10% cost increase
10 – 20% cost increase
20 – 40% cost increase
>40% cost increase
Time
Insignificant time increase
< 5 % time increase
5 – 10% time increase
10 – 20% time increase
>20% time increase
Scope
Scope decrease barely noticeable
Minor areas of scope affected
Major areas of scope affected
Scope reduction unacceptable to sponsor
Project end item is effectively useless
Quality
Quality degradation barely noticeable
Only very demanding applications are affected
Quality reduction required sponsor approval
Quality reduction unacceptable to sponsor
2010

17. Project Risk Management Worksheet
RISK PROBA-BILITY
IMPACT DESCRIPTION
LEVEL OF IMPACT
DATE OF IMPACT
PRIORITY LEVEL
RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN
Risk probability & level of impact:
VL=very low; L=low; M=medium; H=high; VH=very high
2010

18. 2 IDENTIFY RISK
Determining which risks might affect the project and documenting their characteristics
An iterative process; new risks may be known as the project progresses through its life cycle
2010

19. IDENTIFY RISK Risk register INPUT OUTPUT Risk management plan
Activity cost estimates
Activity duration estimates
Scope baseline
Stakeholder register
Cost management plan
Schedule management plan
Quality management plan
Project documents
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets
Risk register
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
2010

20. IDENTIFY RISK Risk register INPUT OUTPUT TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Documentation reviews
Information gathering techniques
Checklist analysis
Assumption analysis
Diagramming techniques
SWOT analysis
Expert judgement
2010

21. Assignments of roles & responsibilities
IDENTIFY RISK INPUT
Risk management plan
Assignments of roles & responsibilities
Provision for risk management acrtivities in the budget & schedule
Categories of risk
Activity cost estimates
Activity duration estimates
2010

22. Uncertainty in project scope statement Stakeholder register
IDENTIFY RISK INPUT
Scope baseline
Uncertainty in project scope statement
Stakeholder register
Project management plan
Schedule namagement plan
Cost management plan
Quality management plan
2010

23. Enterprise environmental factors
IDENTIFY RISK INPUT
Project documents
Enterprise environmental factors
Published information, commercial databases, benchmarking, industry/academic studies
Organizational process assets
Lesson learned & actual data from previous project files
2010

24. IDENTIFY RISK TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Documentation reviews
Information gathering techniques
Brainstorming
Delphi technique
Root cause analysis
Interviewing: Experienced project participants; stakeholders; experts
Checklist analysis
Assumptions analysis
2010

25. IDENTIFY RISK TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Diagramming Techniques
Cause & effect diagram
System / process flow diagram
SWOT analysis
Expert judgment
2010

26. List of identified risk List of potential responses
IDENTIFY RISK OUTPUTS
Risk register
List of identified risk
List of potential responses
2010

27. 3 PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
Prioritizing risks for subsequent further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact
2010

28. Potential Risk Conditions Associated with Each Knowledge Area (Schwalbe: Table 11-5.)
2010

29. PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
INPUT
OUTPUT
Risk register
Risk management plan
Project scope statement
Organizational process assets
Risk register updates
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Risk probability and impact assessment
Probability and impact matrix
Risk data quality assessment
Risk categorization
Risk urgency assessment
Expert judgment
2010

30. PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS INPUT
Risk register
List of identified risks
Risk management plan
Roles & responsibilities for conducting risk management
Budget; schedule; probability & impacts matrix;
Stakeholders’ risk tolerances
Project scope statement
Technology used (common / state of the art)
Organizational process assets
Data about risks on past projects
Lessons learned knowledge base
2010

31. PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Risk probability and impact assessment
Investigate the potential effect (neg or pos) on a project objective
Probability & impact are assessed for each identified risk. The level is evaluated during the interview or meeting.
Probability and impact matrix
Ratings are assigned to risks based on their assessed probability and impact. Result: low or moderate or high risks. Risk rating rules can be tailored in the risk management planning
2010

32. Probability & Impact Matrix
Threats
Opportunities
0,90
0,05
0,09
0,18
0,36
0,72
0,70
0,04
0,07
0,14
0,28
0,66
0,50
0,03
0,10
0,20
0,40
0,30
0,02
0,06
0,12
0,24
0,01
0,08
0,80
Impact ( ratio scale) on an objective (e.g. cost, scope, time, quality
= high risk
= low risk
2010

33. PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Risk data quality assessment
Require accurate and unbiased data
Risk categorization
RBS & others
Risk urgency assessment
Risk requiring near-term responses may be considered more urgent to address
Expert judgment
2010

34. PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OUTPUTS
Risk register updates, includes
Relative ranking or priority list of project risk
Risks grouped by categories
List of risks requiring response in the near-term
List of risks for additional analysis and response
Watch lists of low priority risks
Trends in qualitative risk analysis results
2010

35. 4 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
Assess the likelihood and impact of identified risks to determine their magnitude and priority
Performed on risks that have been prioritized by the qualitative risk analysis process as potentially and substantially impacting the project competing demands
Large, complex projects involving leading edge technologies often require extensive quantitative risk analysis
Managers often perform quantitative risk analysis right after risk identification process
Should be repeated after risk response planning
2010

36. PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
INPUT
OUTPUT
Risk register
Risk management plan
Cost management plan
Schedule management plan
Organizational process assets
Risk register updates
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Data gathering and representation techniques
Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques
Expert judgment
2010

37. PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS INPUT
Risk register
Identified risks
Relative ranking or priority list of project risk
Risks grouped by categories
Risk management plan
Roles & responsibilities
Budget; schedule activity for risk management;
Probability & impacts matrix;
Stakeholders’ risk tolerances
Risk categories
2010

38. PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS INPUT
Project management plan
Schedule management plan
Cost management plan
Organizational process assets
Similar completed projects information
Risk databases
Studies of similar projects by risk specialists
2010

39. PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Data gathering and representation techniques
Interviewing  probability & impact on project objectives
Probability distribution
Expert judgment
Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques
Sensitivity analysis
Expected monetary value (EMV) analysis
EMV = ∑ pi . Qi p = probability
Decision tree analysis
a diagramming method used to help select the best course of action in situations in which future outcomes are uncertain
2010

40. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques
Modeling and simulation : a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system
Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s outcome many times to provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results
To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have three estimates (most likely, pessimistic, and optimistic) plus an estimate of the likelihood of the estimate being between the optimistic and most likely values
2010

41. Decision Tree
Sumber: Schwalbe 2004
2010

42. PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS OUTPUTS
Risk register updates
Updates includes :
Probabilistic analysis of the project
Probability of achieving cost and time objectives
Prioritized list of quantified risks
Trends
2010

43. 5 PLAN RISK RESPONSES
Process of developing options, and determining actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project objectives
Planned risk response must be:
Appropriate to the significance of the risk
Cost effective in meeting the challenge
Timely
Realistic within the project context
Agreed upon by all parties involved
Owned by a responsible person
2010

44. PLAN RISK RESPONSE Risk register Risk management plan
INPUT
OUTPUT
Risk register
Risk management plan
Risk register updates
Risk related contract decision
Project management plan updates
Project document updates
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Strategies for negative risk or threat
Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
Contingent response strategies
Expert judgment
2010

45. PLAN RISK RESPONSE INPUT
Risk register
Identified risks
Root causes of risks
List of potential responses
Risk owners
Risk symptoms & warning signs
Risk management plan
Roles and responsibilities
Risk analysis definitions
Risk thresholds for low, moderate, and high risk
Time & budget required to conduct project risk management
2010

46. PLAN RISK RESPONSE TECHNIQUES
Strategies for negative risk or threat
Avoid: changing the project plan to eliminate the threat posed by an adverse risk ( acquiring expertise, obtaining information, etc)
Transfer: shifting the consequence of a risk and responsibility for its management to a third party (insurance)
Mitigate: taking early action to reduce the probability of its occurrence
2010

47. General risk mitigation strategies for technical, cost, and schedule risks
Source: Schwalbe, ITPM 3rd ed
2010

48. RISK RESPONSE PLANNING TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
Exploit (ensure )
Share (allocating ownership to a third party)
Enhance
Contingent response strategies
Used only if certain events occur
Expert judgment
2010

49. PLAN RISK RESPONSE OUTPUTS
Risk register updates
Risk related contractual agreements
Agreements for insurance, services, etc
Project management plan updates
Project document updates
2010

50. 6 MONITOR & CONTROL RISK
Monitoring risks involves knowing their status
Controlling risks involves carrying out the risk management plans as risks occur
Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk events that must be done when there are no contingency plans
2010

51. MONITOR & CONTROL RISK INPUT OUTPUT Risk register
Project management plan
Work performance information
Performance reports
Risk register updates
Organizational process assets updates
Change requests`
Project management plan updates
Project document updates
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
2010

52. MONITOR & CONTROL RISK INPUT
Project management plan
Assignment of people (risk owners), time, other resources to project risk management
Risk register
Work performance information
Project deliverables status
Corrective actions
Performance reports
Analysis results
2010

53. MONITOR & CONTROL RISK TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
Risk reassessment
Identification, analysis, response design of new risks
Risk audits
Examine the effectiveness of the risk mgmt process
Variance and trend analysis
EV analysis; CPI; SPI
Technical performance measurements
Comparing performance vs project management plan
Reserve analysis
Time & budget
Status meetings
Periodic
2010

54. MONITOR & CONTROL RISK OUTPUTS
Risk register updates
Organizational process assets updates
Lessons learned
Change requests
Project management plan updates
Project documents updates
2010

55. TUGAS
Buatlah Risk Management Worksheet untuk proyek anda
2010

56. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT
The End