1. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 1 Adjustment to Hazards (Smith, 2002: Ch 4) Adjustment to Hazards (Smith, 2002: Ch 4 ) factors affecting adjustment to hazard accepting loss sharing loss (emphasis in this lecture on collective adjustments) Geography 106b Hazards

2. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 2 Three Categories of Adjustment: 1) Modify Loss Burden loss sharing spread burden well beyond immediate victims e.g, insurance, relief aid

3. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 3 Loss Sharing

4. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 4 Three Categories of Adjustment: 2) Modify Hazard Events loss reduction depends on good knowledge base about the hazard – “experienced” e.g., design, engineering e.g., hazard resistant buildings Source: http://www.eng.uwo.ca/research/ttlpp/http://www.eng.uwo.ca/research/ttlpp/

5. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 5 Three Categories of Adjustment: 3) Modify Human Vulnerability largest category of responses adjust people to the events preparedness, landuse planning, avoidance prediction key – forecasting and warning

6. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 6 Factors Affecting General Adjustment Choices hazards not typically on political “radar” – vs e.g, unemployment, inflation, crime, healthcare radical vulnerability adjustment unrealistic – e.g., moving whole communities costs of alternatives vary widely debate - who should bear cost therefore: cost-benefit assessment of options required

7. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 7 Role of Government? Question How much should governments intervene to help absorb hazard losses – e.g., floods? Specifically, what “mechanisms” should they use? Who should pay for losses (what’s fair)?

8. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 8 Losses Two Scenarios accepting loss - “free” choice “no-action” response people choose to live/act how they want relative to hazards e.g., floodplain housing = cheap! assumes: people have good information; choice is not constrained by capital (more about this next day) share loss - government intervention typically governments intervene once disaster happens (re: political ramifications otherwise) motivated somewhat to reduce individual/community vulnerability to keep post-event costs low

9. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 9 Sharing Loss external government aid - disaster aid (e.g., UNICEF, UNDRO, WFP) internal government aid inter-community aid commercial insurance

10. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 10 Problems “Sharing Losses” sudden-onset draw more $ donor fatigue golden hours critical – e.g, 90% earthquake victims in first 24 hours 2-6 hours most critical recovery takes a very long time – aid/relief enthusiasm wanes in later periods rising costs of relief – e.g., compensating the wealthy

11. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 11 Delayed Medical Relief

12. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 12 General Sequence of Disaster Recovery

13. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 13 Commercial Insurance Identify some advantages and disadvantages of commercial insurance for hazard losses.

14. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 14 Commercial Insurance Advantages predictable compensation private market driven potential equitable distribution of costs (if data good) encourage mitigative measures for policy holders = reduced risk Disadvantages mainly a solution for MDCs unobtainable in high risk areas low uptake of hazard insurance potential inequitable distribution of costs moral hazard problem unduly raises premiums

15. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 15 Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment Choices Example Assuming adjustment to hazard has something to do with the perception of hazard frequency – what do you feel is the probability (0.0 = 0% chance; 1.0 = 100% chance) of each of the following natural hazards occurring in London over the next 50 years? –Tornado –Hurricane –Flood –Debilitating Ice Storm –Major Blizzard

16. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 16 Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment Choices Experience and Probability Estimates Londoners underestimate Londoners overestimate Londoners underestimate

17. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 17 Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment Choices Experience and Probability Estimates Londoners underestimate Londoners overestimate

18. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 18 Factors Affecting Individual Adjustment Choices experience – more experience = more likelihood of adjustment material wealth – including capital, resources (e.g., information) – wider range of options personality – risk taker? confidence in the future (see risk perception lecture) type of hazard – dreaded? (see risk perception lecture)

19. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 19 Prospect Theory In each example, which option do you do you prefer: 1)a) 0.01 probability of gaining $1000 dollars; b) 0.99 probability of gaining $100. 2)a) 0.01 probability of losing $1000 dollars b) 0.99 probability of losing $100.

20. 10/7/2008 2:58pm Geog 2152 20 Losses “Valued” More generally people are much more willing to do something to protect against loss than they are willing to gamble on an equivalent gain