1. 102 May 2011 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes Guus Velders

2. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 2 Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010 A focus on information and options for policymakers: –Metrics: update of lifetimes, GWPs, ODPs –New scenarios of ODSs from now-2100 –Options for policymakers to reductions in ODSs –Impacts of other human activities –Scenarios of HFCs as ODS replacements –World avoided scenarios Ozone impacts and climate impacts Authors: John Daniel, Guus Velders (CLAa), Olaf Morgenstern, Darin Toohey, Tim Wallington, Donald Wuebbles (LA), and many others

3. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 3 World avoided for ozone layer Montreal Protocol is working –Large increases in mixing ratios prevented –Large ozone depletion prevented at poles, mid-latitudes and equator –Large increase in UV-B radiation prevented –Increase in adverse effects prevented

4. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 4 World avoided for climate Climate protection by Montreal Protocol Large contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions –ODSs potent greenhouse gases –By 2010, decrease in GWP-weighted emissions of 10 GtCO 2 -eq/yr –About 5 times Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 –Reduction in radiative forcing of 0.23 W/m 2 (13% of CO 2 ) by 2010

5. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 5 New scenarios constructed Constraints for 1980-2008: –Observed mixing ratios 1980-2008 –Rate of change + lifetime historic annual emissions –Bank per species for 2008 from TEAP (bottom up) –Production reported to UNEP for 1986-2008 Assumptions for baseline 2009-2100: –Montreal Protocol limits –HCFCs extrapolation of historic growth in production –Annual release from bank = emission / bank Options: –Zero production; emission; bank destruction

6. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 6 Lifetimes of halocarbons Revision: –CFC-114 from 300 to 190 yr –CFC-115 from 1700 to 1020 yr –HFC-23 from 270 to 222 yr –Only small changes to others HFCs and the HCFCs Lifetimes affect: –GWPs, ODPs –Emissions derived from observations –Scenarios for future ODS concentrations and ozone layer –Closure of budget (bottom-up vs top-down) CFC-11 (lifetime now 45 yr) important for all CFCs CCl 4 uncertainty in budget

7. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 7 Future mixing ratios ODSs Current baseline in black Old (WMO, 2003, 2007) baselines in red CFCs: –All mixing ratios decreasing –Small change cf 2003/2007 CCl 4 (carbon tetrachlorine) –Decreasing –Significant change cf 2003/2007 CH 3 CCl 3 (methyl chloroform) –Approaching zero

8. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 8 Future mixing ratios ODSs HCFCs: –Increasing use in developing countries –Increasing mixing ratios –Changes due to accelerated phase-out of 2007 Halon 1211 decreasing Halon 1301 still increasing (slightly)

9. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 9 EESC: Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine Metric for ozone layer depletion EESC returns to 1980 levels by –2046 for midlatitude –2073 for Antarctic Zero emissions past 2010 –2033 (13 year earlier than baseline)

10. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 10 Comparing ODS scenarios by different metrics ODP-emissions- EESC GWP-emissions- RF

11. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 11 Impacts of new options Success of the Montreal Protocol: –ODS options have less impact on future ozone than what has already been achieved –Other compounds and activities become relatively more important: Climate changes through direct and indirect effects: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O: temperature, dynamics, chemistry Very-short lived species (VSLS) Geoengineering by injection of sulphur in stratosphere Emissions from rockets and aviations Emissions related to biofuels

12. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 12 Hypothetical cases for accelerating recovery Change EESCChange ozoneChange emissions GtCO 2 -eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs11%0.13%7.9 Halons14%0.15%0.4 HCFCs4.8%0.07%4.9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs8.8%0.15%13.2 CH 3 Br for QPS6.7%0.09%0.002 Emission stop after 2010 CCl 4 7.6%0.9 CH 3 CCl 3 0.1%0.004

13. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 13 Hypothetical cases Change EESCChange ozoneChange emissions GtCO 2 -eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs11%0.13%7.9 Halons14%0.15%0.4 HCFCs4.8%0.07%4.9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs8.8%0.15%13.2 CH 3 Br for QPS6.7%0.09%0.002 Emission stop after 2010 CCl 4 7.6%0.9 CH 3 CCl 3 0.1%0.004 HFCs (more scenario0%0%up to 170 N 2 Odependent)0.35%130

14. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 14 HFCs as ODS replacement Global phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs Much of application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs Demand for HFCs increasing globally New scenarios for HFC use through 2020 or 2050 HFC growth expected especially in developing countries HCFC phase-out 2013-2040

15. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 15 HFC scenarios: emissions and radiative forcing Scenarios: –Non-intervention (BAU) –Intervention through techn. developments, policy incentives –Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs by 2050 –HFC emissions can reach 9-19% of CO 2 by 2050

16. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 16 Comparing emissions by different metrics Emissions weighted by: –Mass –GWP –ODP

17. Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011 17 Thank you for your attention Montreal Protocol initiated steps CO 2 Isobutane HFO-1234yf Mineral wool … CFCsHCFCs HFCs ???