1. Division of Early Warning & Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Strengthening capacity to sustainably manage ecosystems for human well-being

2. Division of Early Warning & Assessment MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT PROJECT River Basin Sub-global Assessments MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT PROJECT River Basin Sub-global Assessments Sherry Heileman & Dave MacDevette UNEP - Division of Early Warning and Assessment

3. Division of Early Warning & Assessment MILLENNIUM ASSESSMENT BACKGROUND A 4-year (2001-2005) international assessment of current and future ability of ecosystems to meet human needs for goods and services Under the auspices of the CBD, the CCD, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, and other partners Funded by the GEF, UNF, Packard Foundation, World Bank, Government of Norway, and UNEP In-kind contributions from other UN Agencies, EC, and USA

4. Division of Early Warning & AssessmentOBJECTIVES 1.to meet needs of users for peer reviewed, policy relevant scientific information on ecosystems, the goods and services they provide, and options for meeting policy goals 2.to build capacity at all scales to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments and to act on their findings

5. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE MILLENNIUM ASSESSMENT A demand-driven assessment USERS Ecosystem-related conventions -Convention to Combat Desertification -Convention on Biological Diversity -Ramsar Convention on Wetlands National (sub-national) government Local Communities Civil society Private sector

6. Division of Early Warning & Assessment The MA will Assess how changes to ecosystems will affect their ability to meet human demands for goods and services Examine economic, public health, and social consequences of changes Address impacts of multiple drivers Seek to provide information that can be used to better weigh trade-offs among ecosystem goods and services through integrated assessments

7. Division of Early Warning & Assessment Driver Response Human Impact MA will address impacts of multiple drivers IPCC Climate Change Energy Sector Biodiversity Food Supply Water HealthEconomicsSocial Ecosystems HealthEconomicsSocial Climate Change Land Cover Change Biodiversity Loss Nutrient Loading Etc. MA

8. Division of Early Warning & AssessmentDESIGN The MA is a multiscale assessment (local to global spatial scales) At global level- assessment of ecosystem state and trends development of scenarios exploration of response options At subglobal level- assessments will be conducted at local, national, and regional scales

9. Division of Early Warning & Assessment UNITS OF ANALYSIS The MA uses the ecosystem as one unit of analysis Ecosystem: A system formed by the interaction of a community of organisms with their environment - e.g. lake, river basin, politically defined region

10. Division of Early Warning & Assessment RIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTS OBJECTIVES Provide information for decision-making Build capacity for integrated ecosystem assessments Develop and test methodology for integrated multiscale ecosystem assessments

11. Division of Early Warning & Assessment RIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTS The Lancang-Mekong river basin Norway – the Glomma Sweden – a semi-urban watershed Switzerland, Germany, Austria - Lake Constance Drainage Basin

12. Division of Early Warning & Assessment SOUTHERN AFRICA RIVER BASIN ASSESSMENTS Multinational river basins- Gariep river basin Zambezi river basin Okavango river basin An experiment- Assessments conducted at local, river basin and regional scales, with integration across scales

13. Division of Early Warning & Assessment LOCATION OF RIVER BASINS

14. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE GARIEP RIVER BASIN Objective To assess the current and future impacts of human activities on the capacity of ecosystems within this catchment to meet present and future needs

15. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE GARIEP RIVER BASIN Activities 1.Development of indicators (at each scale) Driving forces (e.g. land use changes, climate change) Response (e.g. vegetation cover, water quality) State (e.g. % arable land/crop type, % habitat loss)

16. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE GARIEP RIVER BASIN Activities 2.Status quo assessment consolidation of all indicators into a single, consolidated view of ecosystem health and resilience 3.Scenario development (economic & social decline, rampant economic growth, sustainable development)

17. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE GARIEP RIVER BASIN Activities 4.Software and report generation CD-based dynamic system model for scenario exploration by decision-makers Scientific and popular reports

18. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Objectives 1.Characterize the regional ecosystems and assess the condition of goods and services in the countries of the Zambezi catchment. 2.Define scenarios of future state and major drivers of change at catchment and subcatchment levels

19. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Assessment will include 1.Condition/state (land cover, forest and soil carbon, water supply & quality, climate data & characteristics) 2.Pressures (on major land cover types & uses, forcing factors, population projections) 3.Scenarios of major drivers of change 4.Impacts of land use change 5.Responses and policy options (with stakeholder groups)

20. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Activities 1.Map land use and cover to give 1990 and 2000 baselines 2.Define major drivers of environmental change at catchment and subcatchment levels 3.Identify regional level ecosystem contributions to livelihood systems

21. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Activities 4.Analyze the interrelationships between the ecological, climate and socio-economic systems in the basin, including adverse impacts of land degradation and climatic extremes (through integrated assessment and modeling) 5.Build capacities of southern African individuals and organizations in ecosystem assessments

22. Division of Early Warning & Assessment THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Outputs Near real-time state of land use and land cover Provision of integrated information for all countries A dynamic representation of the interrelationships between different factors Data and insights into regional connectivity in pressures and impacts One stop shopping for data on broad suite of variables

23. Division of Early Warning & Assessment DATA MANAGEMENT The model for the Southern Africa data management system is the Safari 2000 data and information system. It consists of three elements: A data sharing agreement between project participants A commitment to provide the regional facilitator with metadata A mechanism for post project data archive and dissemination

24. Division of Early Warning & AssessmentCONTACTS Gariep basin Prof. Albert S. van Jaarsveld Centre for Environmental Studies University of Pretoria South Africa AsvJaarsveld@zoology.up.ac.za Zambezi basin Dr. Paul V. Desanker Depart of Environmental Science, University of Virginia, 104 Clark Hall, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA Desanker@virginia.edu

25. Division of Early Warning & Assessment MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT WEBSITE www.millenniumassessment.org