1. Solar Power Potential with PRT Ron Swenson ATRA Santa Cruz 2006 November 18

2. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … The Elevator Speech Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric. Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway GM’s Yellow Gas Cap Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol. Only solar energy will do the job. Solar is sufficient to power high capacity PRT -- 100 percent -- using only the system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way.

3. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … A Little Personal History

4. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Objective To demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute, and is in fact the only viable transport alternative. Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options… Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels. Global Warming will force out coal and uranium. Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale. Social Equity will prevail against war for oil. Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers… Politics: Energy Independence Economics: Quick Payback Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) Environment: Carbon Divestment

5. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: Global Warming

6. Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20 th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.

7. Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries Tons CO 2 per person Tons of CO 2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars

8. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: Peak Oil

9. Can Solar Energy Replace Oil? We know the peak is coming … but what can we do about it?

10. American Consumers Do Understand

11. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: BioFuels

12. Net Production of Biomass in the USA www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

13. The All-New DonCar! www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

14. There is no S SS Silver Bullet. Silver Why Silver in the first place? The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35 AgSpecific gravity of Ag = 10.50 Ag Ag

15. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Context: Social Equity

16. Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation resulting from the exhaustion of non- renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion. www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

17. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequence of Delayed Investment begin investment before decline Net Energy Production Begin investment during decline www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

18. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Energy Independence

19. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Non-Oil, Power Exporting … Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..) Cities… (Santa Cruz?) Colleges… (UCSC?) Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day) Citizens… (You and I?) But “energy independence” is an elusive goal. To get a clue, let’s go back to the future…

20. Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

21. Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 13 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6 www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

22. 120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

23. Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2

24. PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr Peak +5 +10 +15 www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday

25. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … The Solution: Solar PRT

26. Solar on Rail www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran

27. SkyTran Solar Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations

28. jPod Solar www.jPods.com

29. Similar Solar Systems Exist

30. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Economics

31. 30 mph, operating speed x 2 sec (vehicle interval) = 88 ft between vehicles = 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified x 2 kw @ operating speed = 120 kw needed in a mile stretch 10 hrs at peak operation equivalent ÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6) = 2.5 solar factor 120 x 2.5 = 300 kW/mile x $6.00 /watt $1,800,000 /mi 16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market 3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile

32. Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel

33. 1.5 people/vehicle 2,700 passengers per hour at full capacity 27,000 passengers per day Calculate Passengers per Day www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

34. 25 mpg, average fleet mileage 27,000 passengers per day to match 2.0 people/vehicle 13,500 vehicles/day x $2.50 /gallon fuel price = $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily $ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage $ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage = 3.7 years, Payback for solar system to offset gasoline Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

35. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Science

36. Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … Pennsylvania? Saudi Arabia? Off-shore? Plus … Ravaged land/oceans Greenhouse gases Water contamination EROI = 10± And it’s getting worse…

37. Thermodynamics of PV EROI: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROI = 10  30 ~ electric And it’s getting better…

38. Environment

39. Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

40. Back to solid fuels? A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year. How much more would a tractor need?

41. Lessons from History! The original buggy whip protest!

42. Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… Touch it? … It is ephemeral, like solar power. See it? A match made in heaven. Can you lift it?

43. The Electric Rail

44. Solar PRT www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

45. Solarevolution™ More at www.SolarEvolution.com

46. Additional Information More about Global Conditions More about California Conditions More about Santa Cruz Conditions More about PRT More History More about Ethanol More about TeraWatts

47. More about Global Conditions: Peak Oil

48. Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth

49. Consumption by Sector, USA

50. Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures

51. Oil Market Paradigms “Seven Sisters” Oil shocks OPEC manages market OPEC has to meet new demand Conservation, new fuels, new technologies Non-OPEC - FSU OPEC FSU OPEC Used with permission by Peter Wells

52. USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030 $10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use

53. More about Global Conditions: Global Warming

54. CO 2 Reduction Target

55. Breakdown of CO 2 Emissions

56. More about Global Conditions: Conventional Vehicle Perspective

57. Measuring the efficiency and emissions of the fuel/energy source Well-to-Wheel

58. From “Well-to-Wheel” to LCA

59. kg CO 2 /kg LCA Example: CO 2 from Materials Production

60. LCA Example: CO 2 from Vehicle Production

61. More about California Conditions

62. Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference

63. More about Santa Cruz Conditions

64. Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns

65. Master Transportation Study

67. More about PRT

68. Freeway at Capacity

69. Vehicles Removed

70. PRT Passengers

71. PRT System

72. Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT

73. More History

74. Lest we forget … They did bring coals to Newcastle.

75. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

76. The Horseless Carriage

77. From GridLock to Gas Lines

78. More about BioFuels

79. The BioFuel Myths and Facts not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

80. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … Reality or Public Relations? For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident Appendix F ﾐ Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle, June 6, 1986

81. US Agriculture: Crop Areas www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

82. US Agriculture: Crop Energy Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads) www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek

83. More about TeraWatts

84. Solar Industry Response? www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2 Goals 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠ 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How to get there? Federal government procurement $100 m/year R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…” Inadequate InconsistentInconsistent

85. Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge) 14.5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day 30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day The Basis of Prosperity 20 st Century = Oil 21 st Century = [Renewables] www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

86. Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! “ Think TeraWatts ” www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

87. white Renewable Nations