1. futureworks | Fellowship for Regional Sustainable Development Building New Pathways to Sub-Baccalaureate Credentials: The GPS Model Brian Bosworth, FutureWorks June 19, 2013

2. Lets Begin With Some Numbers : National Completion Rates Sub-Baccalaureate Institutions, Public & Private Public, Degree Granting 2-Year (1,010) Completers within 150% of Time 20.5% Completers within 200% of Time 26.7% Public, Non-Degree 1 & 2-Year (362) Completers within 150% of Time 68.0% Completers within 200% of Time 73.0% Private, For-Profit, Degree-Granting 2-year (645) Completers within 150% of time 58.5% Completers within 200% of time61.9% Private, For-Profit Non-Degree 1 & 2-Year (1,873) Completers within 150% of time 66.3% Completers within 200% of time 69.3% Source: IPEDS, 2010 Data 2

4. Whats Behind These Low Rates of Success? Low completion rates reflect our adherence to a traditional academic structure that is not suited to the real needs of the non-traditional students we serve. Traditional structure asks them to devote time they do not have, make choices for which they are not prepared, and accept complexity and uncertainly when they need simplicity and predictability. Within this traditional academic structure, it simply takes too long to get the credential that permits transfer into a bachelors program or pays off in the labor market. 4

5. Traditional Approaches Might Work for Some, Wont Work for Most Piecing together a coherent academic pathway to a credential from an array of apparently unconnected individual courses scheduled in small chunks over 16-week semesters. This may work some of the time for traditional students with lots of time, good preparation, and strong navigational skills or access to them. It seldom works for typical community college students who are often not well-prepared, sometimes face severe and immediate financial pressures, frequently have family responsibilities. These students seldom have academic advisors or non-academic supports to help guide them through the multiple choices required by conventionally complex academic systems. 5

6. Time Is the Enemy Most community college students respond to these scheduling challenges by slowing way down – attending only part-time, trying to squeeze in one or at most two courses each semester and occasionally stopping out for a full semester. At this pace, the pathway to a credential is long and choppy; things go wrong and most students drop away before getting any credential. Time is the enemy of completion. This is costly and inefficient – for the students and the state. 6

7. GPS Not A Silver Bullet, But… We cant just continue doing what we are doing – the cost is too great. Small changes around the edges are not making a difference For community colleges, guided pathways with structured programs can make an enormous difference. The challenge is scale and scope. 7

8. Image GPS at Scale: NSC Data Nationally in 2006: 990,027 students enrolled for the first time at a public 2- year college; 306,330 received any sort of credential in 6 years But if only 50% of these were brought to full-time enrollment intensity (double the national average) And if they completed at a rate of 52.6% (the national average for full-time students) and the other half completed at the rate of 33.2% (the national average for mixed enrollment intensity students)…. 8

9. Results? A total of 424,129 of the entering cohort would have completed. That represents 117,799 more than the 306,330 actual completions for 2006 fall entering students Thats a gain of almost 40%. 9

10. Imagine Higher Rates of Enrollment Intensity If 50% of all entering students were brought to full-time enrollment intensity, And the completion rate for full-time students were 68.8% (the average of the five leading states – IL, ND, SD, TN, and MN) …. And 44.2% for mixed enrollment intensity students (the average of the five leading states – KY, MN, ND, VA and FL)…. 10

11. Results? A total of 559,358 of the entering cohort would have completed. That represents 253,028 more than the 306,330 actual completions for 2006 fall entering students Thats a gain of 82%. 11

12. Thats the Promise of GPS at Scale If we create guided pathways that allow many more students to pursue credentials at a much faster pace, We could literally double the numbers of completers. 12