1. 1 MDG Needs Assessment Process in Tajikistan Temur Basilia MDG Team Leader UNDP Tajikistan July 2005

2. 2 Presentation Agenda Tajikistans MDG Needs Assessment Process; Main Structural Reforms needed for achievement of the MDG; Scenarios of the MDG Needs Assessment in Tajikistan; Financial Estimations; Next Steps.

3. 3 MDG Needs Assessment Process- The Government of Tajikistan The Presidents leadership; The Government Working Groups under the leadership of relevant deputy prime ministers; Coordination of the process by the State adviser to the President.

4. 4 Governmental Working Groups President President Administration Education Working Group Focal Point at the Ministry of Education Health Working Group Focal Point at the Ministry of Health Food Security Working Group Focal Point at the Ministry of Agriculture Water Sanitation and Treatment Working Group Focal Point at the Ministry of Melioration and Water Manag. Gender Working Group Focal Point at Committee on Women Affairs

5. 5 MDG Needs Assessment Process- The UN Tajikistan The UN MDG Team: International and national consultants; Policy: Policy Adviser, Macroeconomist and Financial Modeling specialist, PRSP consultant; Sectoral consultants: Health, Education, Agriculture and Food Security, Water and Sanitation; Environment, and Gender; Regular meetings and workshops with donors and civil society; Support of the Millennium Project.

6. 6 Main Structural Reforms Needed for the Achievement of the MDGs Good governance and public administration reforms; Tax and customs administration reforms; Privatization and the development of small and medium enterprises; Utility sector reform.

7. 7 Main Structural Reforms Needed for the Achievement of the MDGs (cont.) Good governance and public administration reforms Eliminate duplication of functions at all levels; Improve the function of the executive office of the President, with better capacity and more focus on development of overall strategies and monitoring oversight; Improve capacity of the public service delivery at all levels, but especially at local levels, and encourage flexible local service delivery mechanisms that address local needs and priorities; Create open competitive system for all positions of public service

8. 8 Main Structural Reforms Needed for the Achievement of the MDGs (cont.) Tax and customs administration reforms Simplify the Tax Code, and establish a unified income tax rate of 12%; Increase the threshold for VAT for private enterprises with an annual turnover equivalent to US$ 50,000 and higher; Consider abolishing the sales tax and replacing it completely with VAT; Reduce the new Single Agricultural Tax rate to avoid extra burden on poor farmers, especially cotton farmers; Improve tax collection from wealthy individuals (the tax administration to identify the 100 wealthiest individuals for tax collection).

9. 9 Main Structural Reforms Needed for the Achievement of the MDGs (cont.) Privatization and the development of small and medium enterprises Simplify the burdensome administrative procedures for the private sector-develop a standard package for registration and streamline licensing, permits and approvals processes; Reduce the frequency of tax inspections to once every two years, and impose the issuance of mandatory notifications to enterprises before inspections; Coordinate other inspections (fire, sanitation, law enforcement agencies etc.) by limiting the frequency to one per year; Establish an Investment Council under the Presidents leadership to eliminate barriers for investors and attract new potential investors.

10. 10 Main Structural Reforms Needed for the Achievement of the MDGs (cont.) Utility sector reform Restructure energy monopoly company and other large state utilities; transfer generation, transmission and distribution responsibilities from state enterprises to private providers; Create an independent regulatory body for the energy and water sectors to establish tariffs and regulate utility providers; Implement nationwide metering services for electricity and water usage to increase the net collections; Regulate tariff rates for public utilities based on cost recovery principle and the publics ability to pay; provide subsidies for the poor; Encourage mechanisms to reduce losses and illegal usage of utilities; Encourage community involvement in public utilities management (i.e. water users associations).

11. 11 Scenarios of the MDG Needs Assessment Economic growth scenarios: baseline and high-growth; Baseline Scenario: GDP Growth- 5% annually; increasing tax revenue-19% by 2015; budgetary expenditures on MDG related activities-31% High (growth) Scenario: GDP Growth- 7% annually; increasing tax revenue-24% by 2015; budgetary expenditures on MDG related activities-50%

12. 12 Scenarios of the MDG Needs Assessment (baseline scenario)

13. 13 Scenarios of the MDG Needs Assessment (high growth scenario)

14. 14 Scenarios of the MDG Needs Assessment (per capita)

15. 15 Next Steps The Government ownership of the development of the MDG-based PRS and the National Development Strategy; The UN: technical assistance, coordination of the monitoring and evaluation of the PRS process; advocacy for increased ODA; Participatory process: inclusion of civil society, donors, and local communities; Other donors participation: Donors Advisory Board (UN, IMF and WB) with involvement of other international organizations.

16. 16 Government Working Groups And Their Cooperation with the UN NDS and PRS Development Project

17. 17 Structure of the UN Project to Support the Development of NDS and PRS