1. Book Industry TRENDS 2007 BookExpo America 2007 Working to create a more informed, empowered, and efficient book industry supply chain.

2. Agenda Introduction Methodology and Sources of Data Key Highlights and Findings Questions and Answers

3. Introduction Michael Healy, Executive Director Book Industry Study Group, Inc.

4. About BISG Industrys leading trade association for policy, standards and research. Develops and maintains standards that enable effective communication among all segments of the industry supply chain. Conducts research and gathers data on issues affecting the book industry as a whole.

5. BISG Mission Working to create a more informed, empowered, and efficient book industry supply chain.

6. How We Accomplish Our Mission Provide a forum for the book industry Policy development Best working practices Consensus on industry issues Develop standards for effective industry supply chain communications Conduct research on issues affecting the book industry

7. Research & Publications

8. Book Industry TRENDS 2007 The only complete view of todays book-publishing industry More than 250 pages of tables, charts, and analysis An up-to-date report that covers the growing segment of small to mid-size publishers

9. Methodology and Sources of Data Jeff Hayes, Vice President & General Manager, InfoTrends Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research Robert Wharton, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research

10. Tracking Small Publishers Most book publishing revenue data is on large publishers Significant publishing activity by smaller entities Self-publishersTrade Associations Small businessesCorporations Specialty publishersNon-profit organizations Need new primary research to quantify Concerns about generating reliable data

11. The Long Tail of Book Publishers Annual book publishing revenue Rank Order Source: BISG Under the Radar Research

12. The Long Tail … Annual book publishing revenue Rank Order Source: BISG Under the Radar Research

13. The Long Tail … Annual book publishing revenue Rank Order Source: BISG Under the Radar Research

14. Profile of Small Publishers (<$50M) Type of Publisher N = 1117 11.9% Educational institution Corporation Association Retailer Distributor Printer Government Category of Books Published Percentage of Publishers

15. Small Publisher Key Research Findings 53% earn revenue from non-book activities (e.g. speaking, seminars, consulting, editing, distribution, education) Nearly 90% use Internet for marketing and/or sales Growing portion of revenue from paperback (73.7% vs. 71.6%) Lower average selling prices in 2006 vs. 2005 ($11.21 vs. $13.46) Getting retailers to carry books and production costs are top concerns Used books, competition, and returns are not of high concern

16. Small Publisher Market Projections 193,802 records of US entities with an ISBN Not in business 31.6% In business 68.4% 132,526 61,276 Not active 33.2% Active Publishers 66.8% 88,528 43,999 Median Revenue ($K) $3.6 $65 $177 $637 $2,000 NA X 67,907 6,434 7,442 1,860 4,651 233 Under $50K 76.7% $50K to $99K 7.3% $100K to $499K 8.4% $500K to $999K 2.1% $1M to $49.9M 5.3% $50M+ 0.3% Annual Revenue Projected Revenue ($M) $418 $1,321 $1,186 $9,302 NA = $246 $12,474 Total

17. Year Over Year Comparisons Statistical variance is an issue Most increase from $1M to $49M publishers

18. Analyzed survey data by key segments Format Category Channel Foreign vs. domestic Additional analysis to incorporate into TRENDS 2007 Eliminate double counting Apportion to TRENDS segments Integrating Small Publisher Projections

19. Additional Data Sources U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau International Trade Administration Monthly Retail and Book Store Data The Statistical Abstract of the U.S. U.S. Department of Education

20. Additional Data Sources Congressional Budget Office Annual Reports & 10-Ks Wall Street Reports Industry Reporting Services Major Publications Trade Associations R.R. Bowker

21. Additional Data Sources Financial Reporting Services Data from NBER, Federal Reserve, etc. Discussions with Industry Experts Discussions with Book Publishers Discussions with Academic Researchers

22. ARIMA Models A uto R egressive I ntegrated M oving A verages Time series forecasting tool Uses lags and shifts in historical data to uncover patterns and predict the future

23. Key Highlights and Findings Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research

24. Summary Data

25. Adult Trade For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

26. Juvenile Trade For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

27. Mass Market Paperback For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

28. Religious For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

29. Professional Publishing For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

30. College Textbooks For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

31. Elhi For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

32. University Press For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

33. Standardized Tests For additional statistics from Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html to purchase a copy of the publication.

34. Thank you Questions? For more information: Book Industry Study Group, Inc. (646) 336-7141 www.bisg.org