1. Why are Short-term economic statistics important? User views on Short-term economic statistics UNECE Training Workshop “Short-term statistics and seasonal adjustment” Astana, 14 – 17 March 2011 Petteri Baer, Marketing Manager, Statistics Finland

2. 14 - 17 March 2011 Everybody acknowledges the importance of National Accounts GDP “- Yes, of course” Sure, we need something to measure the economic growth of the society Sure, we need international comparability at the level of different economies Sure, we need a denominator for the shares of different industries in the economy 2Petteri Baer

3. 14 - 17 March 2011 What about short-term statistics on economic development? It may be another story Why? No real supply provided by official statistics (?) Too many disappointments, when requesting good AND timely statistics Substitutive indicators, guesstimates in wide use And if there IS some supply Often not much information provided to potential users Misinterpretations about the consistency of the statistical information due to necessary revisions 3Petteri Baer

4. 14 - 17 March 2011 More and more statistical publication takes place on the internet… This is a very positive development Availability and accessibility of official statistics has grown substantially In the beginning of the year 2008 >500 Million internet hosts in the world! This also increases pressure on timeliness

5. 14 - 17 March 2011 But note: – There are traps on the way! Just putting your information on your web site does not automatically mean it is utilized Even though your web information is utilized, it does not mean that your most important users make use of it

6. 14 - 17 March 2011 All potential users These guys are real users Heavy user Traps on the way, continued  You may cover only a tiny share of your potential users - but not recognize it! 6Petteri Baer

7. 14 - 17 March 2011 Traps on the way, continued Counting the popularity of your web site by “hits” may deceive you because a substantial part of the “fabulous growth” comes from search engines checking if you have any new information

8. 14 - 17 March 2011 Very often you do not really know, who your users are, when you provide services on the internet 8Petteri Baer

9. 14 - 17 March 2011 A Problem - as posed in a Pretoria Expert Group Seminar in 2003 “Statisticians like to talk to one another in mysterious ways and with a time clock which runs 10 times slower than everyone else's”  We have to communicate better!  We have to imagine ourselves into the position of the potential users of our information!

10. 14 - 17 March 2011 Especially concerning Short-term economic statistics… Timeliness is an issue of huge importance Trade-off between timeliness and accuracy - always Globalization Modern communication tools

11. 14 - 17 March 2011 The voice of a policy maker Rob Wright, Deputy Minister of the Department of Finance of Canada, opening in May 2009 the International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends in Ottawa, organized by UNSD and Statistics Canada 11Petteri Baer

12. 14 - 17 March 2011 Rob Wright: The role of Data in Public Policy Development “Process of policy development is lengthy Research and analysis required to understand when and where policy change and reform are needed Designing policy Developing consensus (political, public) We rely on high quality and timely data throughout the process” 12Petteri Baer

13. 14 - 17 March 2011 Rob Wright: How can statisticians improve public policy? “Identify and close data gaps Priority to long term issues and trends But there is a need to be able to adapt to current developments, if possible Identify turning points Consult users Government, private sector, researchers” 13Petteri Baer

14. 14 - 17 March 2011 The importance of turning points in the assessing development In assessing economic development In designing financial and monetary policy decisions In making investment decisions

15. 14 - 17 March 2011 The voice of a businessman and banker Don Drummond, Chief Economist of Toronto Dominion Bank, Canada, opening the International Seminar, mentioned above: "I would rather have no data than wrong data." 15Petteri Baer

16. 14 - 17 March 2011 Statistics Canada performed a stakeholder need assessment in 2008 (1) …with the central users of Short-term economic statistics A great deal of trust for Canadian Statistics was expressed in the services of Statistics Canada on STS At the same time, the following improvements were required: Better timeliness Additional questions to be included in the Labour Force Survey Better metadata and Improvements on the web site and the search engine 16Petteri Baer

17. 14 - 17 March 2011 Statistics Canada performed a stakeholder need assessment in 2008 (2) Other issues that came up in this consultation with the main stakeholders: A worry that a NSO should not rush into short-term data collection without the usual testing of the instrument Short term ad hoc measures will not be useful unless there is time series continuity The agency should continue its longer-term investments in quality improve-ments and new data products 17Petteri Baer

18. 14 - 17 March 2011 Conclusions Short-term economic statistics ARE important and their importance is growing Not only as a service item But also for building up the image and the reputation of the statistical agency as an important, accurate and timely information provider Identifying turning points in the economic cycle is one of the most important functions Availability and comparability of long term time series and seasonal adjustment of fixed term indices are of top importance Keep your users well informed about your services Understand your audiences’ specific needs by better communication 18Petteri Baer