1. CHALLENGES OF FIRE AND FLOODS IN HUMAN SETTLEMENTS CONFERENCE
Cause, effect and prevention of fire and
flood disasters in human settlement.
19 – 20 APRIL 2005
Gerhard Schulze
[PMG note: for picture]
Photo’s News24

2. Kofi Annan, SG of the UN 8 October 2003
“Natural hazards are a part of life. But hazards only become disaster when people’s lives and livelihood are swept away Let us remind ourselves that we can and must reduce the impact of disasters by building sustainable communities that have long-term capacity to live with the risk”

3. Secretary-General of WMO 22 March 2004
Nearly 90% of the economic impact of disaster in last ten years was weather and climate related.
Progress in meteorological and hydrological sciences shows that the impacts of natural hazards can be reduced trough preparedness and mitigation.
It is imperative to be informed of the risks and options to mitigate the risk.
3rd Assessment report of the IPCC concluded that it is likely that the duration, location, frequency and intensity of extreme events will change.

4. Economic impacts of natural disasters

5. Increases in natural disasters

6. CONCEPTUAL DEFINITION OF RISK:
Disaster
in preparedness
Deficiencies
Hazard
Risk
Vulnerabilities

7. Risk as a process Relief funding RISK Time Disaster Hazard Investment
Settlement in hazardous area
Lack of zoning ordinance
Lack of building codes
Poverty and increases in poverty
Occurrence of disasters
Migration & population increase

8. Risk Management Preparedness Mitigation Prevention Risk reduction
Reduce deficiencies
Mitigation
Reduce vulnerabilities
Prevention
Hazard reduction
(Early warning systems)
Risk reduction

9. Risk Identification: Hazard analysis
Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities.
Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning.

10. What the SA Weather Service can offer
Hazard monitoring in real time
Early warnings
Risk-identification (assessments)
Climate records
Expert advice

11. South Africa - Country Profile Munich Re

12. Storms and heavy seas
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13. [PMG note: email info@pmg.org.za for picture]
Photo DWAF

14. Lightning
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Photo News24

15. [PMG note: email info@pmg.org.za for picture]

16. Phase 1
Phase 2

18. Preparedness and emergency management
Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction
Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels

19. Initiate actions according
Monitor precursors No
Will hazard
occur?
Yes
Issue warning
or alert
Initiate actions according
to emergency plans

20. Knowledge Management
Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation)
Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information
User education and awareness are essential:
to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics
to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended users
to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness
to enable emergency management authorities to make well-informed decisions

21. ECMWF model scores

22. Conclusions
SA Weather Service can provide a more effective service to reduce the consequences of extreme weather events by quantifying the risks and disseminating this information directly to the general public.
Its profile and the support that it gains from the community can only be strengthened by this sort of process.
But naturally even greater benefits will be gained if we improve the reliability of our forecasts, particularly for events which still remain difficult to forecast using numerical forecasting models.

23. 10 April :45
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24. 10 April :30
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25. 11 April :45
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26. Weather Warnings issued
08/04/ :14 Advisory: Widespread showers expected Sunday along south coast and adjacent interior with possible heavy falls in places East of Still Bay
09/04/ :48 Heavy falls of rain likely in places between Stilbaai and Plettenbergbaai tomorrow (Sunday)
10/04/ :59 Heavy falls likely today (Sunday), Overberg, Breede River valley, Ruens, Little Karoo, South Coast persisting in east tomorrow morning Monday.
10/04/ :13 Warnings as issued earlier, heavy falls will last longer and improve during tomorrow (Mon) from the west. Please keep communication channels constantly open as in past. Thank you Johan Stander
10/04/ :15 Gale force south easterly winds (35knots/65km/h) expected in places Between Table Bay and Cape Agulhas today and Mon Morning

27. Weather Warnings (cont)
10/04/ :09: There seems to be a well developed weather systems to North West of Cape Town. If this moves across we might have substantial falls in Cape Town. Regard this information as an Advisory for Cape Town. Will keep a close eye on this and inform well in advance if significant for CT. JS
10/04/ :01 Severe thunderstorms might move across the Peninsula till tonight. Thunderstorms already over areas defined earlier, will keep you informed.
11/04/ :23 Heavy falls and gale force winds warnings for the CAPE PENINSULA hereby cancelled.
11/04/ :26 While further rain is still expected overnight, warning heavy falls of rain is hereby cancelled, Keith Moir

28. Storms of 10 & 11 April News24
Torrential rain lashed the region on Sunday night, causing millions of Rands damage.
In Bredasdorp between 600 to 800 houses were damaged, and 3 000 people affected.
In Mitchells Plain, Bellville, Durbanville and Khayelitsha heavy rains, a strong wind and hailstorms created havoc
Sixty-one families from the temporary tented accommodation at Joe Slovo informal settlement were "re-housed" at the Langa civic centre
In the Joe Slovo tented emergency shelter, hundreds of people, already displaced after a fire swept through the informal settlement, were also affected by the downpour.

29. Radar 10 April :41
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30. 10 April :26
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31. Climate change

32. [PMG note: email info@pmg.org.za for picture]