1. Calculating the Reproductive Ratio

2. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic. For Standing Disease, R 0 is 2 Step01234567 No. new infections 1248163264128

3. Counter Plague 1 st scenario No. on die No. of new infections 10 20 31 41 52 63 What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario.

4. Counter Plague 1 st scenario No. on die No. of new infections Av. no. new infections expected 100 200 31 41 52 63 What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario. R 0 =

5. Counter Plague 2 nd scenario No. on die No. of new infections 10 20 31 41 51 62 What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario.

6. Counter Plague 2 nd scenario No. on die No. of new infections Av. no. new infections expected 100 200 31 41 51 62 What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario. R 0 =

7. Counter Plague No. on die No. of new infections Av. no. new infections expected 1?? 2?? 3?? 4?? 5?? 6?? How could you set up Counter Plague so that R 0 equals: 1.5 4 What is the largest value of R 0 you can get in Counter Plague?