1. Growing Graduates in Times of Scarcity: Aligning Curriculum to Maximize Success Craig Hayward and Rick Fillman, Cabrillo College RP Group 2011 Kellogg West Conference Center

2. “Curriculum Alignment Tool” or CAT  Six years of section data  Just over 19000 records.

3. Section level data  Section Name (Math-254-56789)  Term  Academic Year  Section Accounting Method [XB01]  Dept  Division  Location  Main Campus  Watsonville Center  Online

4. … more section level data  Enrollment count  WSCH [new XB11]  FTES  FTEF [XE-03]  Fall/Spring Summer winter

5. … recently added section level data  Success count  Retention count  CA resident count  OOS count  Int’l count  Cohort/Learning community section  Grades! Counts of A,B,C,D,F,W

6. Course level data  Level (by local course numbering)  Note to self – maybe add [CB21]  Units  Transfer (yes/no) [CB05]  CTE (yes/no) [CB09]  CTE-ness [CB09]  fulfills transfer GE requirement ( TransGE )  IGETC  CSU_GE  Core Program requirement

7. Derived fields, course attributes.  CoreReq CTE course?  CoreReq Trans course?  CTE  Transfer  MREE100&200  other

8. Data sources  XFTE report (Cabrillo IT) –section data – enrollments, FTES, WSCH, location, etc.  Data Warehouse –grade tallies  course MIS classification  Student resident status  Faculty Assignment sheets –TU utilization  Cabrillo Articulation –IGETC/CSU courses  Curricunet – core requirement  Local LC history

9. Next?

10. The power of math From Horn & Lew (2007)

11. Curricular alignment for success – the math sequence  How does attaining transfer level math vary according to initial math level attempted?  What is the mix of placement levels of your incoming students?  What is the placement/promotion/ repetition mix in your math classes?  How will changing the actual mix of math sections/levels offered impact success?

12. Relationship between starting level and transfer attainment

13. Assessment/Placement

14. Complexity #1: It’s not all new students

15. Actual course mix

16. Forecast of transfers and BAs based on math assessment Enroll Passed transfer math TransferBachelors attainment Course MixYear 1By year 3 By year 6By year 10 3 levels below 16% 479342014 2 levels below 19% 5621217250 1 level below 23% 699340201140 Transfer math 42% 1260739436305

17. Forecast of transfers and BAs based on math assessment Enroll Passed transfer math TransferBachelors attainment Course MixYear 1By year 3 By year 6By year 10 3 levels below 10% 30021139 2 levels below 20% 6001307654 1 level below 25% 750365215151 Transfer math 45% 1350791467327

18. It’s a simplified model Unrealistic assumption #1: All students will enroll in math in their first year. Instead there is a mix of placed, promoted & repeaters. Unrealistic assumption #2: Students transfer at the same rate once they reach transfer level math regardless of their starting level Unrealistic assumption #3: Transfer students everywhere graduate at the rate seen at the CSU

19. Increasing BA/BS Attainment  Moore & Shulock (2010) point to “diminishing capacity at UC and CSU to receive transfer students”  Geiser (2010) says that the “single most critical factor for California to improve B.A. attainment is to expand 4-year enrollment capacity.”  The nominal capacity of the CCC is about 1.3 million FTES. The nominal capacity of the CSU system is about 400,000 FTES.  The key to increasing the number of Baccalaureates in the state is a more efficient allocation of existing higher education resources.

20. The transfer gap  A study by Long Beach Community College staff and the Center for Urban Education found that one in five students where were eligible to transfer to the CSU or UC did not do so. The Missing 87 (2007).  MPR found that a single cohort of first-time freshmen in the CCC produced 10,000 transfer- ready students who had no records of actually transferring within six years (Horn & Lew, 2007).  The TVP found that after nine years, there were over 11,000 TVP cohort students who became transfer ready but never transferred.

21. How to increase efficiency  Transfers to the CSU graduate in higher proportions than do CSU native freshmen  70.1% vs. 48.9%, six-year rates for the 2002 cohort  This difference is even greater for the swiftest growing demographic group – Latinos  While 40.6% of native CSU freshmen who are Latino graduate within six years, the comparable rate for Latino transfer students is 68.3%  What if we “stocked” the CSU with primarily students who had already completed their first two years of undergraduate work?

22. Estimated Annual CSU GRADs by Transfer/Freshman mix

23. Three steps to producing 125,000 additional Ba/Bs by 2025  FOCUS on increasing the number of Bachelor degree recipients in the state as the paramount goal of the post- secondary educational system  INTEGRATE the capacity of the CCC and CSU to increase efficiency  GROW the capacity of the CSU by adding incrementally to existing campus capacity

24. Q&A ?