1. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 RMP Modeling Strategy John Oram Jay Davis

2. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Intent To develop a capacity to predict the effect of different management alternatives on –loads from watersheds, –the recovery of contaminated areas on the Bay margin, –the recovery of the Bay as a whole

3. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Approach To develop conceptual and numeric models of the physical, chemical, and biological processes governing the fate of water, sediment, and pollutants of concern in San Francisco Bay and its associated watersheds

4. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Question 1 : Bay Margins What is the contribution of contaminated Bay margins to impairment in the Bay and what are the projected impacts of management actions to the Bay's recovery?

5. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Question 2 : Bay Recovery What patterns of exposure are forecast for major segments of the Bay under various management scenarios?

6. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Question 3 : Small Tributary Loads What are the projected impacts of management actions on loads or concentrations of pollutants of concern from the high-leverage small tributaries? Where should management actions be implemented in the region to have the greatest impact?

7. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Some Comments Need very specific details about the uses anticipated by Water Board staff (and other stakeholders) –ongoing, iterative, transparent process for developing these questions, tracking various decision points Need milestones or decision points to make sure model outputs will be available at the right time for consideration by water board staff/managers. –Currently have ~5 year goal informing PCBs TMDL v2.0 Need a clear narrative describing what we already know, how the proposed work could expand that, what it will take to get there –To be addressed as part of Margins Conceptual Model

8. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Strategy : Coordination Establish (or Participate in) a Bay Area Modeling Forum that will –guide agencies and NGOs in the selection, use, and interpretation of models –improve communication and coordination of local modelers and stakeholders –reduce duplication of efforts –improve the overall quality of modeling products Will Participate in CeNCOOS Forum Aug 6-7, 2009

9. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Strategy : Bay & Margins Model Develop a flexible grid model capable of implicitly allowing for the interaction of fine-scale processes occurring at the Bay Margins with the larger-scale processes of the Bay proper

10. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Strategy : Bay & Margins Model What is a flexible grid anyway? –An approach to allow increased resolution in areas of concern

11. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Strategy : Bay & Margins Model # cells44,148 cell sizeCurvilinear 50 m to 1.3 km dt (min)1.0 - 0.1 Curvilinear Grid Delft3d grid from P. Barnard (USGS)

12. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Strategy : Bay & Margins Model SUNTANS grid of Puget Sound Unstructured Grid

13. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Strategy : Local Watersheds Develop models of key watersheds over the next three years with the goal of developing a regional model (or set of models) Watersheds will be identified by SPLWG and Small Tributaries Strategy Team –These groups will provide project oversight as well. Implement field studies to fill information gaps –2010 funding proposed to identify information gaps

14. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 Strategy : Local Watersheds Example: Guadalupe Watershed Model

15. Draft Strategy 6-10-09 * = currently funded by RMP