1. South Bay SUNTANS Application Presented to the CFWG June 10, 2009

2. SF Bay SUNTANS in the news … http://suntans.stanford.edu/

3. Proposal Goal: –To investigate the exchange of material between margins and Bay Approach: –Apply the SUNTANS model to a specific South Bay margin(s) and tributaries –Use tracer experiments to quantify exchange rates

4. Example: Santa Monica Bay Used nested grids to allow for higher resolution in areas of interest

5. Example: Santa Monica Bay Used Lagrangian particles as tracers of exchange processes

6. Example: Santa Monica Bay Calibrated physical model to long-term observations

7. Example: Santa Monica Bay Identified the dominant modes of water movement

8. Example: Santa Monica Bay Related the dominant modes of water movement to theoretical mixing models Estimated dispersion rates

9. Example: Santa Monica Bay Examined the behavior of particles under various modes of water movement

10. Example: Santa Monica Bay Estimated monthly-mean residence times and escape times

11. Example: Santa Monica Bay Examined wastewater plume dynamics

12. Proposal Goal: –To investigate the exchange of material between margins and Bay Approach: –Apply the SUNTANS model to a specific South Bay margin(s) and tributaries –Use tracer experiments to quantify exchange rates

13. Workflow & Budget Project is a collaboration between –SFEI –Ed Gross (Consultant) –Mark Stacey & Rusty Holleman (UCB) Total Propsed Budget $100k –Approximately 20% SFEI, 20% Ed Gross, 60% UCB

14. Deliverables Working hydrodynamic model of South Bay (actually includes all Bay at coarse resolution) –Need to work out exactly what this means… do we want the code? Future access to code? Stored physical results? Working (offline) particle tracking model Technical report on methods and preliminary results –Probabilistic maps of tributary plumes –Estimates of exchange rates

15. Benefits to RMP Major step towards understanding exchange processes A model that we can use for scenario testing Strategic seat at the table –Can guide future specific SUNTANS applications –SFEI/RMP as clearing house for environmental models

16. Fieldwork Proposal ($50k) Premise: –Proposed modeling approach will require additional data for calibration/validation. What are the data needs? –Will be identified as part of the Margins Conceptual Model –Some thoughts: Real-time monitoring of fluxes at tributary outlets Real-time monitoring of fluxes at bridges (ex. Dumbarton) Tracer studies to estimate (episodic) exchange rates Update bathymetry Sediment characterization studies to estimate plume extent and transport pathways

17. Fieldwork Proposal ($50k) Possible approach –Wait for results of conceptual model and preliminary SUNTANS results –Develop list of information needs –Prioritize list based on scienific importance, potential for successfully filling information gaps, stakeholder needs, etc. –Fully scope top few studies –Make final decision on which study or studies to implement