1. WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 1 Preliminary Analysis of GCOS Implementation Plan – Satellite Supplement Jean-Louis Fellous (ESA) Strategic Implementation Team (SIT)

2. 2 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 COP-10 Decision on Research and Systematic Observation … 5. Invites Parties that support space agencies involved in global observations to request these agencies to provide a coordinated response to the needs expressed in the GCOS Implementation Plan … Response planned for SBSTA at COP 12, November 2006

3. 3 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 CEOS/SIT 2006 Work Plan At CEOS Plenary in London, Nov 15-16, the following SIT Work Plan was approved: –Short-term (weeks to months) Task A – CEOS Response to GEO 2006 Work Plan –Mid-term (months to year) Task B – Development of a comprehensive report to COP-12 The CEOS Response to the GCOS Implementation Plan –Long-term (one to several years) Task C – Overall CEOS Implementation Plan and framework for GEOSS

4. 4 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Recent events GCOS Office organised an Expert Meeting in Geneva on January 9-11, where GCOS IP requirements pertaining to space-based measurements were preliminarily reviewed V1.0 of the GCOS Satellite Requirements for Climate was released on March 3 V1.1 open for discussion by the broader climate community

5. 5 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 GCOS-IP Satellite Supplement (V1.0) content GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles –Ten basic Principles adopted by UNFCCC COP in November 1999, and further agreed by CEOS at its 17 th Plenary in November 2003 –Specific principles for satellite systems proposed to reaffirmation by CEOS Cross-cutting actions Specific actions –Atmosphere, Ocean and Terrestrial –Products feasible today or Emerging products

6. 6 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Satellite-specific Climate Monitoring Principles (1) 1. Constant sampling within the diurnal cycle (minimizing the effects of orbital decay and orbit drift) should be maintained. 2. A suitable period of overlap for new and old satellite systems should be ensured for a period adequate to determine inter- satellite biases and maintain the homogeneity and consistency of time-series observations. 3. Continuity of satellite measurements (i.e., elimination of gaps in the long-term record) through appropriate launch and orbital strategies should be ensured. 4. Rigorous pre-launch instrument characterization and calibration, including radiance confirmation against an international radiance scale provided by a national metrology institute, should be ensured. 5. On-board calibration adequate for climate system observations should be ensured and associated instrument characteristics monitored.

7. 7 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Satellite-specific Climate Monitoring Principles (2) 6. Operational production of priority climate products should be sustained and peer-reviewed new products should be introduced as appropriate. 7. Data systems needed to facilitate user access to climate products, meta-data and raw data, including key data for delayed-mode analysis, should be established and maintained. 8. Use of functioning baseline instruments that meet the calibration and stability requirements stated above should be maintained for as long as possible, even when these exist on de-commissioned satellites. 9. Complementary in situ baseline observations for satellite measurements should be maintained through appropriate activities and cooperation. 10. Random errors and time-dependent biases in satellite observations and derived products should be identified. CEOS should reaffirm adherence to these principles (and take them really seriously).

8. 8 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs) The term Fundamental Climate Data Record is used in the GCOS document to denote a long term data record, involving a series of instruments with potentially changing measurement approaches, but with overlaps and calibrations sufficient to allow the generation of homogeneous products providing a measure of the intended variable that is accurate and stable enough for climate monitoring. For one time research spacecraft, the principles of continuity obviously do not apply, but as many of the other principles as possible (e.g., those for rigorous pre- launch instrument characterization and calibration, on- board calibration, complementary surface-based observations, etc.) should be followed.

9. 9 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Cross-cutting actions Generation of Integrated Climate Products WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS International Coordination of Reanalysis Activities CEOS/IP Task Force CEOS/IP Task Force Propose to CEOS to establish partnerships Detailed Specifications of Integrated Climate Products WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS Emerging Products Propose endorsement by CEOS Archiving and Dissemination WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS Unique Fundamental Data Sets WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS Improved Community Awareness of Available and Planned Satellite Data Records WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS Exploiting Opportunities for Instrument Cross-Calibration WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS WGCV/WGISS for evaluation, then propose endorsement by CEOS

10. 10 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Atmosphere (1) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT A.1 Surface Wind Speed and Direction Reprocess ERS, QuikScat, SSM/I, SMMR? Scatterometer 2-sat. system Maintain passive MW Transponder network, buoys (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean constellation) (c) WGCV A.2 Upper Air Temperature Provide MSU records Construct RO climate record Continue MW sounding Establish RO network IR sounder data Improve instrument/orbit drift corrections Support RO val. (a) WGISS (b) CGMS & CEOS/IP (RO constellation) (c) WGCV A.3 Water vapour Reprocess HIRS, SSM/I, SSM/T2 + AMSU/B + MHS Continue measurements (LEO MW & IR, GEO WV, UV/VIS) Improve pre- launch cal. Val (GPS, radiosondes) (a) WGISS (b) CGMS & CEOS/IP (Land constellation) (c) WGCV

11. 11 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Atmosphere (2) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT A.4 Cloud Properties Reprocess and refine products from records from early 80s Maintain meteorological constellation & adequate instr. Satellite inter- calibration, active validation needed a) WGISS (b) CGMS & CEOS/IP (Clouds) (c) WGCV A.5 Precipitation Reprocess past records/improve resolution, new products Continuous rain measurements (GPM concept) R&D (solid precipitation) Cal/val major issues (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Rain constellation) (c) WGCV A.6 Earth Radiation Budget Reprocess past records to improve consistency Ensure continuity of ERB records with overlap Reference to calibration standard a) WGISS (b) CGMS & CEOS/IP (ERB constellation) (c) WGCV

12. 12 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Atmosphere (3) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT A.7 Ozone Construct long- term data records (TOMS/SBUV + other sensors) Continue observation with evolving instr. re: GCOS CMP Comprehensive Cal/Val activities required (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Atmosphere/Ozone constellation) (c) WGCV A.8 Atmospheric reanalysis (many ECVs) Provision of data sets to reanalysis centres Partnership with reanalysis centres Standard formats, quality indicators, cal/val feedback (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (c) WGCV Emerging products (A.9- 11): aerosols, GHGs, upper air winds Reprocess, provide data sets Establish & maintain adequate observing systems Support cal/val (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP & CGMS (c) WGCV

13. 13 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Ocean (1) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT O.1 Sea Ice Consolidate existing sea ice products Combine with in situ records Continue existing series of MW/Vis/IR CryoSat-2, Sent-3, IceSat Focus on ice thickness and drift data sets with rigorous cal/val (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean/ice constellation) (c) WGCV O.2 Sea Level Reprocess altimetry data as orbit, geoid & tides improve Continue series of overlapping Jason-class & plan two ERS- class missions Ancillary validation system as part of the missions (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean/altimetry constellation) (c) WGCV O.3 Sea Surface Temperature Continue support to GHRSST pilot projects Sustain IR & MW sensors (extend ATSR, TMI, AMSR…) Need to sustain in situ observations (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean/SST constellation)

14. 14 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006000102030405060708091011121314 ERS-2/RA GODAE ENVISAT/RA-2 TOPEX/Poseidon Jason-1Jason-2 ALTIKA Sentinel-3 CRYOSAT-2 End of life In orbit Approved Planned/Pending approval Data gap? Data gap ERS-1 CNES/EUMETSAT/NASA/NOAA signed Letter of Agreement for Jason-2 GFO KNOWN FUTURE ALTIMETRY MISSIONS NPOESS Jason-3? Data gap?

15. 15 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Ocean (2) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT O.4 Ocean Colour Ocean colour products freely available through ftp/Web Reprocess Sustain ocean colour record Risk of gap beyond 2007 Improve in situ measurement network for vicarious cal (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean/ice constellation) O.5 Sea State Build a comprehensive unified record Continue at least altimeter and SAR Explore new techniques Use existing buoys for calibration (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean/altimetry constellation) (c) WGCV O.6 Ocean reanalysis Data availability to reanalysis centres Partnership with reanalysis centres (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP

16. 16 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Ocean (3) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT Emerging products (O.7): Sea Surface Salinity ???

17. 17 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Terrestrial (1) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT T.1.1 Lake Area No current capability established for data archiving, current data holdings fragmented Establish a Lake Data Centre Reprocess altimeter/ATSR, initiate lake area product Sustain acquisition of VIS/NIR and radar data Consider WaTER proposal using interferometry and high resolution imagery Very high resolution imagery from sample sites (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean/SST constellation) T.1.2 Lake Level Altimeter cal to achieve required accuracy T.1.3 Lake Surface Temperature Sustain TIR sensors with climate accuracy Same as SST

18. 18 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Terrestrial (2) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT T.2 Glaciers, Ice Caps and Ice Sheets Global glacier outlines from historic Landsat 4/5 (1982-2000) Continue Landsat ETM+, stereo imagery Cryosat-2, IceSat Cal/val from field, very high res imagery, ref points survey, laser altimetry (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Ocean/ice constellation) T.3 Snow Cover Generate a reanalysis product from historic archives Continue obs. of snow areal extent with moderate res. optical imagery & passive MW Cal/val needed (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Land constellation) T.4 Albedo Reprocess archived data (operational weather sat) Continue operational observations Pre-launch characterisation on board cal, intercomparison (a) WGISS (b) CGMS

19. 19 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Terrestrial (3) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT T.5 Land Cover (types, type changes, historical changes) Continue production of global LC maps Provide access to archives (Landsat, Spot) Continuity of MODIS/MERIS and Landsat ETM-class missions No stringent requirements Accordance with agreed standards & protocols (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Land constellation) (c) WGCV T.6 fAPAR Reprocess archives Finer resolution product? Continuity of MODIS/MERIS- class missions Benchmarking ongoing under WGCV (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Land constellation) (c) WGCV T.7 Leaf Area Index Generation of global LAI product at finer resolution? Continuity of MODIS/MERIS/ SeaWiFS-class missions Network of ref. sites for in situ validation (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Land constellation) (c) WGCV

20. 20 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Terrestrial (4) Essential Climate Variable (a) Requirements re: past/current data sets (b) Requirements re: future systems (c) Requirements re: calibration and validation Recommended actions to SIT Emerging product (T.8): Biomass Demonstrate proposed methodologies with ALOS data Develop a concept future operational mission Use of JERS data precluded due to cal issues (a) WGCV (b) CEOS/IP (Land constellation) T.9 Fire Disturbance (burnt areas, active fires, fire radiated power) Reprocess archives, continue current products Continue MODIS/MERIS/ ATSR class Extend SEVIRI to all GEO sat.? Importance of relative cal. Absolute cal. if no overlap (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Land constellation) CGMS CGMS (c) WGCV Emerging product (T.10): Soil Moisture Exploit Envisat ASAR data over arid regions, plan ALOS polarimetric obs Develop a concept for global/regional soil moisture mapping Radiometric cal Validation through models and precip. events (a) WGISS (b) CEOS/IP (Land/soil moisture constellation) (c) WGCV

21. 21 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Major issues for CEOS Response Strategy –Focus on maintaining climate continuity of key products – –Ensure creation and maintenance of Fundamental Climate Data Records through instrument operations in accord with Global Climate Monitoring Principles, and reprocessing of existing data records. Implications of the Strategy –Suitable instruments to be established, maintained and changed in accord with GCOS principles –Data and metadata archives to allow current and future reanalysis –Ownership of, or Partnership with, the product generators –Product generation that includes error estimates –Ensuring data/information access by all Parties –The need in some cases to develop a measurement strategy or conduct research

22. 22 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 The way forward (1) Identify immediate responses (e.g., CryoSat-2) and immediate opportunities with a volunteer champion (e.g., already planned reprocessing of some archived data sets) Assign (a)-type requirements (reprocessing, provision of data sets, new products, etc.) for immediate assessment by WGISS (cost, lead/contributing agencies, timetable, etc.)

23. 23 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 The way forward (2) Assign (b)-type requirements (future missions, partnerships) to CEOS/IP (CEOS Long-Term Implementation Plan Task Team) for consideration in the framework of the constellation concept, in conjunction with CGMS in the case of the meteorological satellites constellation

24. 24 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 The way forward (3) Assign (c)-type requirements (cal/val, standards and protocols, methodological issues, etc.) for assessment by WGCV (cost, lead/contributing agencies, timetable, etc.) WGISS and WGCV meetings in May should be mainly devoted to this assessment. For each requirement, they should produce Task Sheets comparable with the GEO Work Plan, to serve as a basis for a tactical response to GCOS-IP

25. 25 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 The way forward (4) This tactical response will be complemented with the strategic approach of satellite constellations –Meteorological constellation (CGMS with CEOS) –Complementary Atmosphere, Ocean and Land constellations – with some subdivision e.g., ozone, altimetry, ocean colour, etc. (through CEOS) Altogether this would provide the substance for the CEOS Response to GCOS-IP to be submitted to COP-12

26. 26 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Nota Bene It is IN NO WAY intended to defer ACTIONS from GCOS IP to CEOS WGs CEOS WGs have the capacity and competence to assess and evaluate GCOS requirements, not to implement them Implementation, based on WGs assessment, will be the responsibility of space agencies, individually or collectively

27. 27 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Toward COP-12 and beyond On May 22-24 a dedicated Climate Theme Team composed of CEOS and GCOS designated experts will outline the draft CEOS Response to GCOS-IP (to be agreed at SIT-19 in September) based on a critical review the GCOS Satellite supplement and the outcome from WGs Links should be established to the various expert groups cited in the GCOS Satellite Supplement with respect to each ECV It is intended to present progress monitoring and reports at three-year intervals

28. 28 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 Timetable SIT-18 (March 21-22) First examine GCOS Satellite Supplement, discuss and agree the way forward From now on till their May meeting WGCV and WGISS to assess GCOS requirements in their respective areas and produce Task Sheets April-May CEOS IP Task Team to refine constellation concept 22-24 May: Climate Theme Team meeting 2 nd meeting in July Critical review of Climate Supplement and WG assessments, first draft outline of CEOS Response to GCOS-IP SIT-19 (Sept. 19-20) Discuss and agree Report to COP-12 COP-12 (Nov. 6-17) CEOS Response to GCOS Implementation Plan to be presented to SBSTA at COP-12

29. 29 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 What next? Job Assessment Forms(JAF) –This process is similar to the GEO Work Plan process, using Task Sheets to develop the many actions proposed to GEO participants –One should understand that the JAFs are just the beginning of a long story –JAFs could serve as an instrument to initiate and then monitor progress in each job area –Need a first set of JAFs with contact persons asap, but the process will be iterative

30. 30 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 What next? The planned Report to COP-12 is not the end of the story CEOS agencies will have to prioritize actions and invent a mechanism for their coordinated implementation A few ideas –A Joint WGISS/WGCV one-day session on GCOS may become a permanent feature? –Algorithms might be added to WGISS remit?

31. 31 WGISS/WGCV Meeting – Budapest, May 10, 2006 In any case we need your active participation and help. Thanks!