1. The Effect of Elderly Household Members on School Enrollment of Children in Tibet Barbara A. Anderson*, Cheong-Seok Kim**, John H. Romani*, John Traphagan*** and Jinyun Liu* * University of Michigan * University of Michigan ** Dongguk University ** Dongguk University *** University of Texas *** University of Texas

2. This paper would not have been possible without : The cooperation of the Tibet Regional Statistics Bureau and the China National Bureau of Statistics Advice from Qiongda of the Population Institute, Tibet University, and Chen Hua of Yunnan Normal University Support from NICHD Center Grant Number P30 HD- 1003 and NIH/NIA Fogarty Grant TW00857 to the Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, and NIA Grant P20AGG12846 to the Michigan Exploratory Center on Aging

3. Alternative Hypotheses about Effects of Presence of Elderly on School Enrollment William Goode and the conservative effect of the elderly on family members Kristen Hawkes and the “Grandmother hypothesis”

4. Summary of Findings Presence of a literate adult in the household, urban residence, and relatively high availability of schools are related to a child attending school. Living in an agricultural household and in a family engaged in animal husbandry (pastoral nomads) are related to less chance of being in school. For both girls and boys, the more brothers, the less likely the child is in school. For boys the number of sisters is positively related to school enrollment; for girls, the number of sisters is negatively related to school enrollment. Presence of relatives age 60+ has no effect on school enrollment of boys. For girls, males and females over age 70 have no influence or a negative influence on school enrollment. Females in their early sixties, have a positive relation to school enrollment.

5. Data Used Data are from a sample of households for Tibet from the 1995 Mid- Censal Survey of China. The unit of analysis an ethnic Tibetan child age 10-14. There are 7,207 boys in the analysis and 7,225 girls in the analysis. The main analysis method is logistic regression analysis. The dependent variable is whether the child is enrolled in school in 1995, with the value 1 if the child is in school and 0 if the child is not in school. Other characteristics of the child and characteristics of the household are used as independent variables in the analysis.

6. Characteristics of Tibetan Elderly in Tibet, 1995 % Population age 60+ 8% % Age 60+ ever-married 90% % Women age 60-64 with at least one surviving child 80% % Age 60+ with any schooling 8% % Age 60+ living in household with 2+ generations 88%

7. Characteristics of Tibetan Households with a Child Age 10-14 Average household size 7.3 % Containing a literate adult 60% % Rural 86% % With a member age 60+ 33% % All children age 10-14 in school 40% % Boys age 10-14 in school 48% % Girls age 10-14 in school 32%

8. Logistic Regression Results for Relation of School Enrollment to Child and Household Characteristics Statistically significant coefficients are underlined. BoysGirls Constant 4.091 4.091 4.693 4.693 Age of Child -.258 -.344 Literate Adult in HH.547.547.568.568 Rural Residence -.578 -.578 -.944 -.944 Animal Husbandry HH -2.048-2.202 Agricultural HH -.823 -.823-1.001 Teachers per 10,000 Population in Township.002.002.001.001 Teachers per 10,000 Population in County.002.002.004.004 Number of Cases 7,207 7,225 7,225

9. Logistic Regression Results of Relation of Presence of Other Household Members on School Enrollment of those Age 10-14 Child’s age, household characteristics, and availability of schooling are included in each model. Statistically significant coefficients are underlined. BoysGirls 1 2345678 Girls 5-14.058.058.059.059.058.058-.110-.108-.107-.109 Boys 5-14 -.099-.099-.099-.099-.242-.242-.241-.242 Person 60+ -.012-.022.006.006-.146-.217-.242 Woman 60-64.056.056.049.049.337.364.364 Woman 65-69 -.026.125.125 Man 60-64 -.085-.026 Man 65-69 -.032.005.005

10. Conclusions and Implications The results give some support for both hypotheses. The presence of an elderly person overall has a negative effect on girl’s school enrollment, supporting Goode. But if a younger elderly woman is in the household, girl’s school enrollment is significantly increased, supporting Hawkes. An elderly person could inhibit a girl’s school enrollment if household resources are directed to the elderly person’s care or if the girl were substantially responsible for the elderly person’s care. This would be more likely if the person were older, and probably less healthy. If boys are not expected to help in the care of the elderly or if the schooling needs of boys are more important than care of the elderly, the presence of elderly persons would not affect a boy’s school enrollment. If a woman in her 60’s contributed labor that would otherwise be expected of a girl, the older woman’s presence would positively affect the girl’s enrollment. The more boys in the household, the less likely any given boy is to be in school. Thus, even if households value schooling for boys more than for girls, there is still a decision about which boys will attend school.