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Estimating Water Demands for Irrigation Districts on the Lower Colorado River David Kracman University of Texas at Austin December 7, 2000
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Colorado River Basin Albers Conical Equal Area Projection
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The Highland Lakes
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Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis Lake Buchanan/Buchanan Dam Lake Travis/Mansfield Dam
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Rice-Growing Irrigation Districts 500,000 acre-ft diverted for rice irrigation each year
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Organization of Presentation Definition of Study Area Description of Water Demand Regression GIS Applications and Data Acquisition Preliminary Regression Results Conclusions Future Work Acknowledgments
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Definition of Study Area All shapefiles projected to Albers Conic Equal Area Approximate irrigation district boundaries from LCRA
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Counties in Study Area
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Water Demand Regression Developed by Dr. Quentin Martin, LCRA
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Delay Factor Variable t i = day of first diversion in year i TE = earliest diversion of any year TL = latest first diversion of any year
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Gross Lake Evaporation Closely related to pan evaporation More data available than pan evap Texas Water Development Board
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Rainfall 4 National Weather Service stations near study area Used data from nearest station to fill data gaps
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Total Acreage Rice Acreage Data available for first and second crops Planted acreage a function of economic, weather, other factors
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Water Demand Dependant variable in regression Measured in acre-ft Garwood Irrigation Pump
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GIS Applications Gross Lake Evaporation Data
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GIS Applications National Weather Service Station Locations
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Regression Design
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Regression Analysis SPSS Statistical Package
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Regression Results R 2 improved from 0.49 to 0.787 Std Errors of coefficients improved from 0.5896 and 0.1386 to 0.275 and 0.113 respectively
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Conclusions GIS can aid in development of regression for predicting water use in rice-growing irrigation districts These regressions have potential to improve existing regressions, and may be incorporated into optimization models
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Future Work Develop regressions for other irrigation districts, for all relevant months Incorporate results into optimization model Continue to fill data gaps
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Questions? (My niece, Molly)
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