1. Available soil water- a practical communication tool in southern NSW Michael Cashen Agricultural Climatologist michael.cashen@industry.nsw.gov.au Acknowledge contribution from John Smith, Ian Hume & Sam North

2. My Talk  Case study site - Deniliquin  Explore rainfall  Links with research outcomes ~ SEACI phase 1  Comparing periods 61-90 & 91-09 using PAW  The future 2030 ~ unseen risks?

3. Case study: Deniliquin

4. Deniliquin yearly rainfall Federation drought (1900-2006) World War II (1936-1945) ‘Big Dry’ (1997-2009) Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

5. Autumn outside the box Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

7. Estimated PAW 61-90 ETc Wheat: Median monthly pan * Pan factor (0.72) * Crop Coefficient Kc Pan factor variant ~Sam North Pers Comm, 20 th June 2011

8. A tale of two periods -rainfall Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

9. A tale of two periods- ETc (Wheat) Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

10. A visual comparison of PAW Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

11. Quantifying the difference Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

12. The future? Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

13. What about autumn? Given the findings of SEACI phase 1 (i.e. link between STR and temperature), are we at risk of under estimating the impact of CC ?

14. Conclusion - Autumn rainfall in decline since mid 80’s. - Strong linkage to intensification of the Subtropical Ridge (SEACI Phase 1) - Autumn decline reducing growing season length and Plant Available Water for growth in spring - Current CSIRO/BoM 2007 projections not indicating significant autumn declines

15. References CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007,Climate Change in Australian, Technical report 2007. CSIRO (2010) Climate variability and change in south-eastern Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 1 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2007, Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia, CAWCR Technical Report No. 026

16. Deniliquin seasonal rainfall trends Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

17. Monthly median rainfall 61-90 Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/