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Available soil water- a practical communication tool in southern NSW Michael Cashen Agricultural Climatologist michael.cashen@industry.nsw.gov.au Acknowledge contribution from John Smith, Ian Hume & Sam North
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My Talk Case study site - Deniliquin Explore rainfall Links with research outcomes ~ SEACI phase 1 Comparing periods 61-90 & 91-09 using PAW The future 2030 ~ unseen risks?
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Case study: Deniliquin
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Deniliquin yearly rainfall Federation drought (1900-2006) World War II (1936-1945) ‘Big Dry’ (1997-2009) Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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Autumn outside the box Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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Estimated PAW 61-90 ETc Wheat: Median monthly pan * Pan factor (0.72) * Crop Coefficient Kc Pan factor variant ~Sam North Pers Comm, 20 th June 2011
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A tale of two periods -rainfall Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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A tale of two periods- ETc (Wheat) Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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A visual comparison of PAW Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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Quantifying the difference Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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The future? Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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What about autumn? Given the findings of SEACI phase 1 (i.e. link between STR and temperature), are we at risk of under estimating the impact of CC ?
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Conclusion - Autumn rainfall in decline since mid 80’s. - Strong linkage to intensification of the Subtropical Ridge (SEACI Phase 1) - Autumn decline reducing growing season length and Plant Available Water for growth in spring - Current CSIRO/BoM 2007 projections not indicating significant autumn declines
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References CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007,Climate Change in Australian, Technical report 2007. CSIRO (2010) Climate variability and change in south-eastern Australia: A synthesis of findings from Phase 1 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2007, Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia, CAWCR Technical Report No. 026
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Deniliquin seasonal rainfall trends Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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Monthly median rainfall 61-90 Data:http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/
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