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HEART TRANSPLANTATION Overall ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983.

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Presentation on theme: "HEART TRANSPLANTATION Overall ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983."— Presentation transcript:

1 HEART TRANSPLANTATION Overall ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

2 NUMBER OF HEART TRANSPLANTS REPORTED BY YEAR ISHLT 2008 NOTE: This figure includes only the heart transplants that are reported to the ISHLT Transplant Registry. As such, this should not be construed as evidence that the number of hearts transplanted worldwide has declined in recent years. J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

3 AVERAGE CENTER VOLUME Heart Transplants: January 1, 1992 - June 30, 1996 and January 1, 2002 – June 30, 2006 ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

4 DISTRIBUTION OF TRANSPLANTS BY CENTER VOLUME Heart Transplants : January 1, 1992 - June 30, 1996 and January 1, 2002 – June 30, 2006 ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

5 HEART TRANSPLANTS: Donor Age by Year of Transplant ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

6 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF HEART RECIPIENTS (1/1982-6/2006) % of Trnsplants % of Transplants ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

7 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS BY ERA P < 0.0001 ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

8 HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival (1/1982-6/2005) ISHLT 2008 N at risk at 22 years: 70 HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival (1/1982-6/2006) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

9 HEART TRANSPLANTATION Adult Recipients ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

10 DIAGNOSIS IN ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

11 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS: RECIPIENT AGE DISTRIBUTION BY LOCATION Transplants between January 2000 and June 2006 ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

12 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS: DONOR AGE DISTRIBUTION BY LOCATION Transplants between January 2000 and June 2006 ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

13 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Era (Transplants: 1/1982 – 6/2006) Survival (%) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

14 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Conditional Kaplan-Meier Survival by Era (Transplants: 1/1982 – 6/2006) Survival (%) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

15 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Age Group (Transplants: 1/1982-6/2005) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

16 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Age Group (Transplants: 1/1998-6/2005) ISHLT 2008 HALF-LIFE 18-34: NA; 35-49: NA; 50-59: NA; 60-64: 8.3 years; 65-69: 8.1 years; 70+: 7.3 years Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

17 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Diagnosis (Transplants: 1/1982-6/2005) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

18 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Diagnosis Conditional on Survival to 1 Year (Transplants: 1/1982-6/2005) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

19 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Diagnosis (Transplants: 1/2000-6/2005) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

20 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Diagnosis Conditional on Survival to 1 Year (Transplants: 1/2000-6/2005) ISHLT 2008 Cardiomyopathy vs. Re-TX: p =.006; Cardiomyopathy vs. Other: p =.02; CAD vs. Re-TX: p =.03; Congenital vs. Re-TX: p =.01; Valvular vs. Other: =.01; Re-TX vs. Other: p =.0003 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

21 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by PVR (Transplants: 1/2002-6/2006) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

22 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by VAD usage (Transplants: 4/1994-6/2006) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

23 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by VAD usage (Transplants: 1/1999-6/2006) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

24 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by VAD usage (Transplants: 1/1999-6/2006) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

25 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by VAD usage and Era (Transplants: 1/1999-6/2006) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

26 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS 1-Year Predicted Survival Model (Transplants: 1/2002-6/2006) Impact of Pre-Transplant VAD ISHLT 2008 Recipient: 54 y.o., Dx=cardiomyopathy, height=175 cm, volume=22/year, bilirubin=0.8, PA systolic=40, creatinine=1.2 mg/dl, ischemia=180 min, transplant year = 2005/2006 Donor: 30 y.o., BMI = 25 kg/m 2 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

27 ADULT HEART RE-TRANSPLANTS 1-Year Survival ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

28 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Functional Status of Surviving Recipients (Follow-ups: 1995 - June 2006) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

29 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Employment Status of Surviving Recipients (Follow-ups: 1995 - June 2006) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

30 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Rehospitalization Post-transplant of Surviving Recipients (Follow-ups: 1995 - June 2006) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

31 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Induction Immunosuppression (Transplants: January 2002 – June 2007) ISHLT 2008 Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

32 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Induction Immunosuppression (Transplants: 1997, 2002 and 1/2007-6/2007) ISHLT 2008 Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

33 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival by Induction Type (Transplants: 1/2000-6/2006, conditional on survival to 14 days) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

34 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Maintenance Immunosuppression at Time of Follow-up (Follow-ups: January 2005 - June 2007) NOTE: Different patients are analyzed in Year 1 and Year 5 ISHLT 2008 Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

35 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Maintenance Immunosuppression at Time of 1 Year Follow-up NOTE: Different patients are analyzed in each time frame. ISHLT 2008 Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

36 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Maintenance Immunosuppression Drug Combinations at Time of Follow-up (Follow-ups: January 2005 - June 2007) NOTES: Different patients are analyzed in Year 1 and Year 5. In the Year 1 cohort 73.40% of patients were on prednisone; in the Year 5 cohort 54.12% of patients were on prednisone. ISHLT 2008 Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

37 ADULT HEART RECIPIENTS Maintenance Immunosuppression Drug Combinations at Time of Follow-up For the Same Patients (Follow-ups: January 2000 - June 2007) ISHLT 2008 Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

38 PERCENTAGE OF ADULT HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS EXPERIENCING REJECTION IN 1ST YEAR Stratified by Type of Induction (Follow-ups: July 1, 2004 - June 30, 2007) ISHLT 2008 Overall18-4445-6263+FemaleMale No induction: N=2,580 Polyclonal: 1,137 IL2R-antagonist: N=1,461 OKT3: N=126 Overall: no induct vs. poly (p<0.0001); no induct vs. IL2 (p<0.0001), no induct vs. OKT3 (p=0.019) 18-44: no induct vs. poly (p=0.018); no induct vs. IL2 (p=0.002) 45-62: no induct vs. poly (p=0.008); no induct vs. IL2 (p<0.0001) 63+: no induct vs. poly (p=0.004); no induct vs. IL2 (p<0.0001); no induct vs. OKT3 (p=0.044) F: no induct vs. poly (p=0.001); no induct vs. IL2 (p=0.0004) M: all comparisons were statistically significant at 0.05 except poly vs. OKT3 and IL2 vs. OKT3 Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

39 PERCENTAGE OF ADULT HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS EXPERIENCING REJECTION IN 1ST YEAR Stratified by Maintenance Immunosuppression (Follow-ups: July 1, 2004 - June 30, 2007 ) Overall: p<0.0001 18-44: p<0.0001 45-62: p<0.0001 Female: p<0.001 Male: p<0.0001 ISHLT 2008 NOTE: There were 257 patients with cyclosporine+AZA and 42 with tacrolimus+AZA. These groups were excluded due to small numbers. Cyclosporine + MMF: N = 1,981 Tacrolimus + MMF: N = 2,249 18-4445-6263+MaleFemaleOverall Analysis is limited to patients who were alive at the time of the follow-up J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

40 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTATION Kaplan-Meier Survival Stratified by Rejection Within 1 st Year Conditional on survival to 1 year (follow-ups: 7/2004-6/2006) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

41 POST-HEART TRANSPLANT MORBIDITY FOR ADULTS Cumulative Prevalence in Survivors at 1 Year Post-Transplant (Follow-ups: April 1994 – December 1997 and January 2002 - June 2006) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

42 POST-HEART TRANSPLANT MORBIDITY FOR ADULTS Cumulative Prevalence in Survivors at 5 and 10 Years Post-Transplant (Follow-ups: April 1994 - June 2006) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

43 FREEDOM FROM CARDIAC ALLOGRAFT VASCULOPATHY AND FREEDOM FROM SEVERE RENAL DYSFUNCTION* For Adult Heart Recipients (Follow-ups: April 1994-June 2007) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

44 FREEDOM FROM CARDIAC ALLOGRAFT VASCULOPATHY AND FREEDOM FROM SEVERE RENAL DYSFUNCTION BY ERA* For Adult Heart Recipients (Transplants: April 1994-June 2006) ISHLT 2008 This slide is based on the date of transplant. As a result sample sizes are different from ones on the previous slide J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

45 PATIENT SURVIVAL AFTER REPORT OF CAV AND PATIENT SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITHOUT CAV* (Transplants: April 1994-June 2006) ISHLT 2008 * Patients without CAV conditioned on survival to median time of CAV development (504 days) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

46 PATIENT SURVIVAL AFTER REPORT OF CAV AND PATIENT SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITHOUT CAV* BY ERA (Transplants: April 1994-June 2006) ISHLT 2008 * Patients without CAV conditioned on survival to median time of CAV development (504 days) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

47 MALIGNANCY POST-HEART TRANSPLANTATION FOR ADULTS Cumulative Prevalence in Survivors (Follow-ups: April 1994 - June 2006) Malignancy/Type1-Year Survivors 5-Year Survivors 10-Year Survivors No Malignancy20441 (97.1%)7780 (84.9%)1264 (68.1%) Malignancy (all types combined)612 (2.9%)1389 (15.1%)592 (31.9%) Malignancy Type Skin282937360 Lymph14212738 Other132359108 Type Not Reported5639126 Other includes: prostate (11, 34, 17), adenocarcinoma (7, 4, 2), lung (5, 4, 1), bladder (4, 5, 4), sarcoma (3, 3, 1), breast (2, 8, 3), cervical (2, 4, 0), colon (2, 3, 1), and renal (2, 7, 2). Numbers in parentheses are those reported within 1 year, 5 years and 10 years, respectively. ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

48 FREEDOM FROM MALIGNANCY For Adult Heart Recipients (Follow-ups: April 1994 - June 2006) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

49 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS: Cause of Death (Deaths: January 1992 - June 2006) CAUSE OF DEATH 0-30 Days (N = 3,006) 31 Days – 1 Year (N = 2,722) >1 Year – 3 Years (N = 2,135) >3 Years – 5 Years (N = 1,857) >5 Years – 10 Years (N = 4,054) >10 Years (N = 2,107) CARDIAC ALLOGRAFT VASCULOPATHY 52 (1.7%)127 (4.7%)298 (14.0%)299 (16.1%)581 (14.3%)309 (14.7%) ACUTE REJECTION193 (6.4%)338 (12.4%)220 (10.3%)82 (4.4%)69 (1.7%)26 (1.2%) LYMPHOMA2 (0.1%)54 (2.0%)85 (4.0%)96 (5.2%)195 (4.8%)73 (3.5%) MALIGNANCY, OTHER1 (0.0%)57 (2.1%)218 (10.2%)340 (18.3%)749 (18.5%)392 (18.6%) CMV4 (0.1%)34 (1.2%)16 (0.7%)3 (0.2%)5 (0.1%)1 (0.0%) INFECTION, NON-CMV393 (13.1%)896 (32.9%)276 (12.9%)180 (9.7%)442 (10.9%)213 (10.1%) GRAFT FAILURE1,257 (41.8%)500 (18.4%)499 (23.4%)379 (20.4%)765 (18.9%)353 (16.8%) TECHNICAL233 (7.8%)28 (1.0%)17 (0.8%)17 (0.9%)36 (0.9%)20 (0.9%) OTHER162 (5.4%)175 (6.4%)187 (8.8%)147 (7.9%)339 (8.4%)175 (8.3%) MULTIPLE ORGAN FAILURE 356 (11.8%)268 (9.8%)117 (5.5%)102 (5.5%)309 (7.6%)190 (9.0%) RENAL FAILURE20 (0.7%)25 (0.9%)36 (1.7%)65 (3.5%)225 (5.6%)173 (8.2%) PULMONARY133 (4.4%)108 (4.0%)96 (4.5%)85 (4.6%)172 (4.2%)99 (4.7%) CEREBROVASCULAR 200 (6.7%)112 (4.1%)70 (3.3%)62 (3.3%)167 (4.1%)83 (3.9%) ISHLT Last updated based on data as of December 2006 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

50 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS: Cause of Death from Leading Causes by Era (Deaths: January 1992 - June 2006) CAUSE OF DEATH DATE OF DEATH 0-30 Days (N = 3,005) 31 Days – 1 Year (N = 2,722) >1 Year – 3 Years (N = 2,135) >3 Years – 5 Years (N = 1,857) >5 Years – 10 Years (N = 4,054) >10 Years (N = 2,107) ACUTE REJECTION 1992-1997 122 (7.1%)231 (14.3%)113 (9.3%)41 (4.4%)16 (1.1%)3 (1.7%) 1998-6/200671 (5.5%)107 (9.7%)107 (11.7%)41 (4.5%)53 (2.0%)23 (1.2%) CARDIAC ALLOGRAFT VASCULOPATHY 1992-199732 (1.9%)83 (5.1%)184 (15.1%)189 (20.1%)262 (18.3%)40 (22.6%) 1998-6/200620 (1.6%)44 (4.0%)114 (12.4%)110 (12.0%)319 (12.2%)269 (13.9%) GRAFT FAILURE 1992-1997766 (44.5%)347 (21.4%)305 (25.0%)168 (17.9%)273 (19.0%)30 (16.9%) 1998-6/2006491 (38.3%)153 (13.9%)194 (21.2%)211 (23.0%)492 (18.8%)323 (16.7%) MALIGNANCY, OTHER 1992-19971 (0.1%)40 (2.5%)118 (9.7%)177 (18.8%)257 (17.9%)25 (14.1%) 1998-6/20060 (0.0%)17 (1.5%)100 (10.9%)163 (17.8%)492 (18.8%)367 (19.0%) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

51 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS: Cumulative Incidence of Leading Causes of Death (Transplants: January 1992 - June 2005) ISHLT 2008 Last updated based on data as of December 2006J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

52 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Risk Factors for 1 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) * Temporary circulatory support includes ECMO and Abiomed. NOTE: There were too few continuous flow devices to analyze. J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

53 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Risk Factors for 1 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

54 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Age 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

55 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

56 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Height 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

57 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Donor BMI 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

58 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Ischemia Time 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

59 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Center Volume 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

60 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Pre-Transplant Bilirubin 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

61 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Pre-Transplant Creatinine 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

62 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Relative Risk of 1 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient PA Systolic Pressure 2008 ISHLT (N=8,823) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

63 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) Factors Not Significant for 1 Year Mortality Recipient Factors: Prior malignancy, gender, hospitalized, prior pregnancy, balloon pump, diabetes, PRA Donor Factors: Clinical infection, history of diabetes, gender, history of hypertension, cause of death, history of malignancy Transplant Factors: HLA mismatch, CMV mismatch, prior transplant 2008 ISHLT J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

64 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2002-6/2006) 1-Year Predicted Survival Model ISHLT 2008 Recipient: 55 y.o., Dx=CAD, height=175 cm, volume=22/year, PA systolic=40, ischemia=180 min Donor: BMI = 25 kg/m 2 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

65 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) ** Other = not cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, or congenital heart disease * Temporary circulatory support includes ECMO and Abiomed NOTE: There were too few continuous flow devices to analyze. J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

66 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

67 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Age 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

68 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

69 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Ischemia Time 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

70 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Center Volume 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

71 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Pre-Transplant BMI 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

72 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Pre-Transplant Bilirubin 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

73 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Pre-Transplant Creatinine 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

74 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Pre-Transplant PVR 2008 ISHLT (N=5,131) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

75 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Factors Not Significant for 5 Year Mortality Recipient Factors: Sternotomy, gender, pulmonary embolism, IV inotropes, transfusions, prior malignancy, PRA, balloon pump, infection requiring IV antibiotics prior to transplant Donor Factors: History of cancer, clinical infection, cause of death, history of hypertension, height, weight Transplant Factors: CMV mismatch, ABO match, prior transplant 2008 ISHLT J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

76 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) 5-Year Predicted Survival Model ISHLT 2008 Recipient: 55 y.o.; Dx=CAD; BMI = 26 kg/m 2 ; PVR=2.2; volume=24/year; ischemia=180 min; HLA mismatch = 5, transplant year = 2001/2002 Donor: BSA = 1.9 m 2 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

77 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 1 Year 2008 ISHLT (N=4,144) * Other = not cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, or congenital heart disease J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

78 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 1 Year 2008 ISHLT (N=4,144) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

79 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 1 Year Recipient Age 2008 ISHLT (N=4,144) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

80 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 1 Year Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=4,144) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

81 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 1 Year Donor BMI 2008 ISHLT (N=4,144) NOTE: These results should be considered in the context of donor/recipient weight ratio (next slide) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

82 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 1 Year Donor/Recipient Weight Ratio 2008 ISHLT (N=4,144) NOTE: These results should be considered in the context of donor BMI (previous slide) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

83 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/2000-6/2002) Relative Risk of 5 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 1 Year Recipient Pre-Transplant PVR 2008 ISHLT (N=4,144) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

84 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Risk Factors for 10 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=8,298) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

85 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Risk Factors for 10 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=8,298) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

86 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Age 2008 ISHLT (N=8,298) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

87 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=8,298) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

88 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Pre-Transplant Recipient BMI 2008 ISHLT (N=8,298) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

89 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Ischemia Time 2008 ISHLT (N=8,298) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

90 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Pre-transplant PRA 2008 ISHLT (N=8,298) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

91 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Risk Factors for 10 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 3 Years 2008 ISHLT (N=5,869) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

92 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS Risk Factors for 10 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 3 Years 2008 ISHLT (N=5,869) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

93 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 3 Years Recipient Age 2008 ISHLT (N=5,869) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

94 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 3 Years Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=5,869) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

95 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 3 Years Pre-Transplant Recipient BMI 2008 ISHLT (N=5,869) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

96 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1993-6/1996) Relative Risk of 10 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 3 Years Donor Weight 2008 ISHLT (N=5,869) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

97 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Risk Factors for 15 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=5,605) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

98 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS Risk Factors for 15 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=5,605) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

99 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Age 2008 ISHLT (N=5,605) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

100 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=5,605) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

101 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Ischemia Time 2008 ISHLT (N=5,605) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

102 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Pre-Transplant PRA 2008 ISHLT (N=5,605) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

103 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Center Volume 2008 ISHLT (N=5,605) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

104 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Risk Factors for 15 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 5 Years 2008 ISHLT (N=3,647) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

105 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS Risk Factors for 15 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 5 Years 2008 ISHLT (N=3,647) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

106 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 5 Years Recipient Age 2008 ISHLT (N=3,647) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

107 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 5 Years Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=3,647) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

108 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1989-6/1992) Relative Risk of 15 Year Mortality with 95% Confidence Limits Conditional on Survival to 5 Years Recipient Pre-Transplant PRA (%) 2008 ISHLT (N=3,647) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

109 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy after 5 Years (with no CAV prior to 5 years) (N=3,610) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

110 ISHLT 2008 (N=3,610) ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy after 5 Years (with no CAV prior to 5 years) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

111 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Relative Risk of Developing Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy after 5 Years Donor Age, Donor Gender and Recipient Gender ISHLT 2008 (N=3,610) Relative risk includes impact of donor gender, recipient gender and donor age. J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

112 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Relative Risk of Developing Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy after 5 Years with 95% Confidence Limits Recipient Age ISHLT 2008 (N=3,610) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

113 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Relative Risk of Developing Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy after 5 Years with 95% Confidence Limits Center Volume ISHLT 2008 (N=3,610) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

114 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant (N=9,161) ISHLT 2008 *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

115 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction Pre-Transplant ISHLT 2008 (N=9,161) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

116 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant Recipient Pre-Transplant Creatinine ISHLT 2008 (N=9,161) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

117 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant Recipient Age ISHLT 2008 (N=9,161) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

118 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant Recipient Weight ISHLT 2008 (N=9,161) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

119 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant Recipient Pre-Transplant Bilirubin ISHLT 2008 (N=9,161) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

120 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant Recipient Pre-Transplant PVR ISHLT 2008 (N=9,161) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

121 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant Recipient PRA ISHLT 2008 (N=9,161) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

122 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction after 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant or Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years (N=2,775) ISHLT 2008 *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

123 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction after 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction Pre-Transplant or Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years ISHLT 2008 (N=2,775) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

124 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction after 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant or Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Recipient Pre-Transplant Creatinine ISHLT 2008 (N=2,775) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

125 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction after 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant or Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Donor Age ISHLT 2008 (N=2,775) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

126 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction after 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant or Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Donor/Recipient BMI Ratio ISHLT 2008 (N=2,775) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

127 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2000) Risk Factors for Developing Renal Dysfunction after 7 Years Limited to Recipients without Severe Renal Dysfunction* Pre-Transplant or Renal Dysfunction within 7 Years Recipient Pre-Transplant Bilirubin ISHLT 2008 (N=2,775) *Severe renal dysfunction = creatinine > 2.5 mg/dl or dialysis J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

128 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy within 5 Years Limited to Recipients without History of Malignancy Pre-Transplant (N=10,054) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

129 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy within 5 Years Limited to Recipients without History of Malignancy Pre-Transplant ISHLT 2008 (N=10,054) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

130 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy within 5 Years Limited to Recipients without History of Malignancy Pre-Transplant Recipient Age ISHLT 2008 (N=10,054) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

131 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy within 5 Years Limited to Recipients without History of Malignancy Pre-Transplant Donor Weight ISHLT 2008 (N=10,054) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

132 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy within 5 Years Limited to Recipients without History of Malignancy Pre-Transplant Center Volume ISHLT 2008 (N=10,054) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

133 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy after 5 Years Limited to Recipients without Malignancy within 5 Years (N=5,041) ISHLT 2008 J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

134 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy after 5 Years Limited to Recipients without Malignancy within 5 Years ISHLT 2008 (N=5,041) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

135 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy after 5 Years Limited to Recipients without Malignancy within 5 Years Recipient Age ISHLT 2008 (N=5,041) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

136 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy after 5 Years Limited to Recipients without Malignancy within 5 Years Donor Body Surface Area (BSA) ISHLT 2008 (N=5,041) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

137 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy after 5 Years Limited to Recipients without Malignancy within 5 Years Recipient Pre-Transplant Bilirubin ISHLT 2008 (N=5,041) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

138 ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (4/1994-6/2002) Risk Factors for Developing Malignancy after 5 Years Limited to Recipients without Malignancy within 5 Years Center Volume ISHLT 2008 (N=5,041) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

139 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=27,596) * Other = not cardiomyopathy, coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, or congenital heart disease J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

140 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=27,596) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

141 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality 2008 ISHLT (N=27,596) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

142 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) 5-Year Predicted Survival Model by Year of Transplant ISHLT 2008 Recipient: 54 y.o., Dx=cardiomyopathy, primary transplant, male, PRA = 0, volume=23/year, ischemia=180 min; HLA A mismatches = 1; HLA B mismatches = 2; HLA DR mismatches = 1; in hospital; not on VAD or ventilator or balloon pump Donor: 28 y.o. male J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

143 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Mortality within 5 Years Recipient Age ISHLT 2008 (N=27,596) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

144 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Mortality within 5 Years Donor Age 2008 ISHLT (N=27,596) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

145 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Mortality within 5 Years Ischemia Time ISHLT 2008 (N=27,596) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

146 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Mortality within 5 Years Center Volume ISHLT 2008 (N=27,596) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

147 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Mortality within 5 Years Pre-transplant PRA 2008 ISHLT (N=27,596) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

148 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 1 Year 2008 ISHLT (N=22,901) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

149 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 1 Year 2008 ISHLT (N=22,901) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

150 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) Risk Factors for 5 Year Mortality Conditional on Survival to 1 Year 2008 ISHLT (N=22,901) J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983

151 ERA ANALYSIS: ADULT HEART TRANSPLANTS (1/1988-6/2002) 5-Year Predicted Survival Model by Year of Transplant Conditional on Survival to 1 Year ISHLT 2008 Recipient: 54 y.o., Dx=cardiomyopathy, primary transplant, male, PRA = 0, volume=23/year, ischemia=180 min; HLA A mismatches = 1; HLA B mismatches = 2; HLA DR mismatches = 1; in hospital; not on VAD or ventilator or balloon pump Donor: 28 y.o. male J Heart Lung Transplant 2008;27: 937-983


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