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® FY 2007 Integrated Financial Plan Mailers’ Technical Advisory Committee Meeting November 1, 2006 H. Glen Walker Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Operating Plan Capital Plan Financing Plan
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 Assumptions Economy ●Inflation Rate = 1.9% ●ECI Forecast (July) = 3.0% ●Moderate Job Growth = 1.4% ●Sluggish Retail Sales = 1.4% Continued Competitive Diversion No Legislative Changes Are Included 8.5 Percent Postage Rate Increase Will Be Implemented By May 2007
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 IFP Summary Volume Declines -0.5% Vs. FY 2006 Revenue Increases 3.2% Vs. FY 2006 Cost Reductions Of $1.1 Billion Are Included $3.3 Billion Escrow Requirement Eighth Consecutive Year Of TFP Growth Labor Negotiations Will Result In ECI−1 Work Hours Will Go Down By 40 Million Hours
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2006 Annual Audit Underway Preliminary Results Indicate ●Flat Volumes ●Light Revenues ●Continued Cost Pressures (i.e. fuel) Audit to be Finalized Mid-November
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN 2007 Income Statement Expense2.6% 73.6B 71.7B Net Income$1.7B$1.2B Revenue3.2%$75.3B$72.9B Escrow Restricted Cash$3.3B$3.0B Deficiency After Escrow−$1.6B−$1.8B % Chg FY2007 Plan FY2006 Forecast Volume (Pieces) 212.3B−0.5%213.5B
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Volume Change Down 2.8% 213B212B Down 2.7% Up 1.9% First- Class First- Class Standard Other Total Volume Down by 1.1B Pieces
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Pieces in Billions First-Class Mail Volume Change Forecast
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Pieces in Billions Standard Mail Volume Change Forecast
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Delivery Point Growth FY 2000 – 2007 FY Est.Plan Data in Millions
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN $3.0B $1.1B Cost Reductions Growth Before Cost Reductions +4.2% $1.9B Net Increase +2.6% Expense Growth – FY 2007
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Personnel Compensation +2.4% Transportation +3.4% Supplies, Materials, etc. +3.7% $1.9B Expense Growth – FY 2007 Total Growth +2.6%
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Workhour Reductions 2005 Cumulative Reduction 713M Workhours 2006 2007 Est.Plan
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Percent Growth Cumulative 1972 – 2006 FY 1972 – 1999 = 0.3% 2000 – 2006 = 1.5% Average Annual Growth Long Term Trends – Total Factor Productivity
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Operating Plan Capital Plan Financing Plan
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Capital Commitments FY Est. ($ Billions) Plan
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Capital Commitments – FY 2007 Components $3.5B Total Commitments
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Operating Plan Capital Plan Financing Plan
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN ($ Billions) Beginning Year: Cash Escrow Balance Estimate FY 2006 $ 0.9 − Plan FY 2007 $ 1.3 3.0 End of Year Cash Restricted Cash – Escrow $ 1.3 3.0 $ 1.0 6.3 Debt Outstanding at Year End$ 1.9 $ 3.1 FY 2007 – Financing Plan Cash Flow from Operations$ 3.9$ 4.0 +Capital Cash Outlays −2.4 −2.2 +Cash From Financing 1.9 1.2 =Free Cash Flow$ 1.5$ 1.8 =Change In Cash Before Escrow$ 3.4$ 3.0
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Deficit / Retained Earnings $3.5 $5.2 $3.0 ($ Billions) $0.5 After Escrow After Escrow -$1.1 $6.3
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FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN FY 2007 INTEGRATED FINANCIAL PLAN Inflation Aggressive Work Hour Reductions FY 2007 Risks and Uncertainties Economy Postal Legislation Rate Recommendation From PRC and Implementation Labor Negotiations
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® FY 2007 Integrated Financial Plan Mailers’ Technical Advisory Committee Meeting November 1, 2006 H. Glen Walker Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
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