1. Trends in young people’s religiosity and cohort religiosity trends Marion Burkimsher Affiliated researcher, ISSRC

2. Proportion of each age group attending religious services at least once a month Data source: Georgia GGS wave 1, 2006

3. Secularisation and revival seen in different ways 1.Introductory comments 2.Trends in young people’s religiosity 3.Cohort trends in religiosity 4.Change in individual religiosity over time 5.Proposed interpretation of the different trends

4. Secularisation and revival seen in different ways 1.Introductory comments 2.Trends in young people’s religiosity 3.Cohort trends in religiosity 4.Change in individual religiosity over time 5.Proposed interpretation of the different trends

5. Limitations of study Looking mainly at Europe (as it has the best data!): 38 countries from Spain to Russia Looking at religious attendance: the proportion of people who attend religious services at least once per month Note this is self-reported attendance Attendance at any religion is considered Results mostly presented as graphs, generally with time on the x-axis

6. Are people in different countries becoming more secular, more religious or staying about the same? Problem of the changing structure of the population: older people die, children become adults Lack of generational replacement is a common reason for declining religious attendance (Voas) We want to look at past trends but also see pointers to future

7. Secularisation is the dominant trend In the early 1980s an average of 30% of young people of a dozen European countries attended religious services at least once a month By 2008-9, the average attendance rate for these same dozen countries had declined to 20% But have all these countries - and others in Europe - been affected in the same way? WVS data for Ireland, France, Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Malta, Iceland, Denmark

8. Definitions Level of religiosity is measured by a single variable: “How often do you attend religious services?” (Not belief or affiliation or a composite measure) Attender is someone who says they attend a religious service at least once a month Secularisation - if level of attendance is declining Revival - if attendance rates are rising

9. Age, cohort, period variations An age effect is caused by a person’s age (and associated point in their life course). Population trends are caused because of the changing structure of the population (demographic ageing). Cohort effects are caused by the influences of living through similar experiences of everyone born in eg. the 1950s, 1970s… Period effects affect everyone in a country in a fairly similar manner. We want to see if there are period trends independent of age and cohort trends Voas and others have found that cohort differentials are the most important drivers of secularisation

11. Several solutions to determine current trends How to filter out the age-cohort-period interactions? Look only at ‘young’ people (<30): they react quickest to ‘fashions’ Look at the trends of different cohort bands over time, and compare cohorts for post-war generations Compare the religiosity of individuals at 2 (or more) points in life

12. Data sources World Values Survey, European Values Study, European Social Survey These are cross-sectional sample surveys, designed to be representative of the population (including age structure) of each country studied. Weights are assigned to individuals. WVS 5 main waves (more to come) 1981-2; 1990; (1995);1999-2001; 2005-8 Total sample sizes are generally over 1000, so 200-400 respondents in under-30 (young) category EVS Has diverged from the WVS to be own entity with survey in 2008-9. Sample sizes mostly around 1500, so 200-400 under-30s ESS 5 waves to date - 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 Total sample sizes around 2000, so under-30s number 300-500

13. What do you think? Which countries are experiencing the most marked trends (within Europe)? Of secularisation? Religious revival? Stability in attendance rates?

14. Secularisation and revival seen in different ways 1.Introductory comments 2.Trends in young people’s religiosity 3.Cohort trends in religiosity 4.Change in individual religiosity over time 5.Proposed interpretation of the different trends

15. Why study young people? They often react quickest to new fads and fashions They are the future of the church: attenders often stay as attenders and vice versa Young people (18-29) are often at their lowest ebb of religious participation (in most western countries)

16. Data: WVS 1981, 1990, 1999 ESS 2006

17. Georgia data from WVS 2008Young = <30; older = 50+

18. Trends in attendance rates of young people Declining attendance rates (since 1981) Countries with high attendance rates Countries with moderate attendance rates Stable or fluctuating attendance rates Countries with mid-level attendance rates Countries with low attendance rates Rising attendance rates Countries with moderate attendance rates Countries with low attendance rates

19. Definition of growth or decline 2 criteria for defining growth/decline: If there was a difference of >5 % in attendance rates between the earliest and latest data point AND There was a sustained trend upwards or downwards over the full time period of survey observations Generally included only countries with 4 or more data points: Croatia, Albania, Macedonia, Cyprus and Israel had only 3 surveys so were not included and their trends were unclear. However, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia were included as their trends were consistent. Georgia with only 2 data surveys was included Note: different vertical scales used

20. Data sources WVS, EVS, ESS

22. Observations Ireland has seen the biggest falls, especially during the 1990s Many of these countries are predominantly Catholic For the group with moderate attendance, they seem to be converging towards a stable level of 8 - 16% The Netherlands reached a minimum first and has seen modest growth since 1999. Belgium has followed a similar trajectory, but delayed by a few years

23. Data sources WVS, EVS, ESS

25. Observations Many of the low but stable group are Protestant countries Some are in western Europe, especially Scandinavia, others in eastern Europe Many (12) countries are in the 5 - 16% band for youth attendance rates The United States would be at the upper end of this group

26. Data sources WVS, EVS, ESS

28. Observations Georgia has seen the largest increase in youth attendance rates Denmark saw the lowest attendance rates (2.6% in 1990), but modest growth has happened since then All the other countries experiencing growth are in ex-communist states, especially ex-Yugoslavia China would be in the low but increasing group

29. Conclusions Some countries show clear indications of secularisation: these are generally Catholic countries Some countries show clear indications of revival: these are generally ex-communist countries There appears to be convergence towards attendance rates of between 5 and 16%

30. Secularisation and revival seen in different ways 1.Introductory comments 2.Trends in young people’s religiosity 3.Cohort trends in religiosity 4.Change in individual religiosity over time 5.Proposed interpretation of the different trends

31. Why study cohorts? Cohort trends are usually stable: individuals may come and go, but general attendance rates for a cohort tend remain similar over the medium to long term If cohort attendance rates decline, this shows that secularisation is particularly strong If cohort rates are rising, then revival is happening Differences between cohorts indicate the failure (or success) of intergenerational transmission Cohorts have gone through the same external life experiences together - war / peace…

32. Data sources: WVS and ESS

33. Observations In (almost) all countries in both western and eastern Europe the cohorts born in the 1940s are less religious than those born in the 1930s AND those born in the 1950s are less religious than those born in the 1940s. In Georgia, the attendance pattern is reversed, with each younger cohort being more religious than the next older one. In Bulgaria, the 1940s cohorts are slightly more religious than the 1930s, but the 1950s cohorts are less religious. It would seem that there was a sea change in the post-war generations compared those born before or during the 2nd World War.

34. Problem of age effects and ‘censoring’ in cohort studies If we look at a a 10 year cohort band, eg people born in the 1960s, then at the 1981 WVS survey, they were aged 12-21. But surveys only include those over 16 or 18 - this varies between survey and between country. So for the example above, only the 16/18-21 year olds were surveyed. As age effects may be quite important at the “young” and “old” ends of the spectrum, then the effects of censoring can be important when the time trend graphs include these extremities.

35. Data sources 22 European countries included in this part of the study Countries were included in this study if they had data from a minimum of 3 surveys Data is from the WVS and ESS We would expect that the ‘normal’ trend for cohort attendance rates would be stability over time

36. About the graphs The cohorts born in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s are plotted, ie these are all the post-war generation The 1950s cohorts are plotted with solid lines The 1960s cohorts are plotted with dashed lines The 1970s cohorts are plotted with dotted lines The confidence limits of most data points (in the 10-40% range) with typical sample sizes, are +/- 4%

37. In 1981: 1950s cohort were 22-31 1960s cohort were 16-21 in 2010: 1950s cohort were 51-60 1960s cohort were 41-50 1970s cohort were 31-40

38. Observations Ireland shows greatest secularisation: affects all cohorts; biggest differentials between cohorts Modest falls across time period for Switzerland; small inter-cohort differentials These are predominantly Catholic countries

40. In 1981: 1950s cohort were 22-31 1960s cohort were 16-21 In 2010: 1950s cohort were 51-60 1960s cohort were 41-50 1970s cohort were 31-40

41. Observations Scandinavian countries have lowest attendance rates, but these seem quite stable over time (Norway, Sweden, Estonia) Great Britain, Bulgaria and Finland have slightly higher rates than the other countries in this group Estonia is the most secular country, but religious observance is not (yet) extinct there 5-8% seems to be the minimum attendance rate to be sustained

43. Observations The highly secularised countries of Denmark and Czech Republic show modest rises in cohort attendance, starting from a minimum of <5% Latvia and Russia converging on attendance rates of 13-16% in 2008; it would appear that growth could continue In Romania attendance rates converging on 37-40%; potential for further growth more debatable Revival has affected all cohorts in Georgia

44. Inter-cohort comparisons of post-war cohorts These may or may not confirm the trends presented already These are not time trends but a comparison of cohorts The cohort values were average values from WVS and ESS Differentials between cohorts do not define secularisation / revival trends, especially if differentials are small

48. Secularisation and revival seen in different ways 1.Introductory comments 2.Trends in young people’s religiosity 3.Cohort trends in religiosity 4.Change in individual religiosity over time 5.Proposed interpretation of the different trends

49. Why look at changing individual religiosity? Most people keep similar habits of religious attendance through their life - but some change, to either start or stop attending We can categorise people into 4 groups, comparing attendance at age 12 and attendance now (when EVS survey conducted in 2008) - look only at young people (<30) 1.Non-attender > non-attender (the biggest group in most countries) 2.Non-attender > attender 3.Attender > non-attender 4.Attender > attender The relative balance of groups 2 and 3 may determine if revival or secularisation predominates

50. Problem with use of this indicator It depends on the culture of religious training for children: this is common in Catholic countries (catechism) and also some Protestant countries In ex-communist countries there was not usually a culture of early teenage religious socialisation Countries ordered by difference in size of group 2 and group 3 Note: in most of the countries studied, the majority of 12-year-olds were not regularly attending religious services (in the period 1990- 2002)

51. Data source: EVS 2008

52. So which countries are displaying what trends? Let’s compare all countries studied using all 4 indicators They do not always give the same conclusion!

53. Summary of 4 indicators of secularisation / revival for 38 European countries

54. Looking at inter-cohort differentials gives the most ‘negative’ outlook (only 2 countries with ‘revival’) Comparing attendance at age 12 with attendance rates of young adults also gives a negative impression for many countries, except for the case of some ex-communist states Looking at youth attendance trends and cohort trends give a fairer impression of whether secularisation or revival may be happening - but do not always give the same conclusion There are some interesting anomalies that would be worth investigating

55. Overall conclusions  In countries where young people are at least as religious as older people, then growth is commonly happening. This is most marked in Georgia, but it is also seen in Russia.  In countries where most secularisation is happening, then period effects are causing a decline in religiosity across many cohorts - AND there are large inter-cohort differentials. This is seen mainly in the predominantly Catholic countries (which often had higher attendance rates at the start of the period). However, not all Catholic countries are being affected as strongly.  In many countries there appears to be convergence to a certain level of religious observance; in the most secular countries this band is generally 6-16% of the younger cohorts. In other countries, there is convergence at a higher level.  The two major events that have affected religious observance were the Second World War and the fall of communism.

56. Secularisation and revival seen in different ways 1.Introductory comments 2.Trends in young people’s religiosity 3.Cohort trends in religiosity 4.Change in individual religiosity over time 5.Proposed interpretation of the different trends

57. Does modernisation lead to secularisation? Measure of modernisation: Human Development Index Composite measure combining: 1.health (life expectancy at birth) 2.wealth (GDP per capita at PPP) 3.education (school enrollment and adult literacy) HDI has been increasing over time in almost all countries for which we also have religiosity survey data For this part of the presentation, the attendance rates relate to the full population of each country, not just youth

58. Data source: WVS

60. The area between the black dashed lines can be considered the ‘natural level’ of religiosity of a population given its level of development. This ‘normal band’ is roughly the trendline +/- 10% The area between the black dashed lines can be considered the ‘natural level’ of religiosity of a population given its level of development. This ‘normal band’ is roughly the trendline +/- 10% These countries have been in the ‘normal band’ at some point: These countries have been in the ‘normal band’ at some point: India, Turkey, Brazil, Iran, Romania, South Korea, Hungary, Slovenia, Great Britain, Belgium, Australia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Finland, Norway, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland (21 countries)

62. These countries have been above the ‘normal band’ and their most recent trend is downwards: Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Malta, Poland, Iceland, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Canada, United States, Australia (16 countries) However, these countries are above the “normal band” but have not seen recent falls: South Africa, Nigeria, Italy, Portugal (4 countries) Exceptions to prove the rule?

64. These countries were initially below the ‘normal band’ but are now closer to it or have moved within it (most have seen rises in attendance rates): Georgia, Moldova, Viet Nam, China, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Latvia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Iceland, Finland (12 countries) Only Bulgaria is the exception to this pattern, having moved a little further away from the ‘normal band

66. Some countries have had a period of revival, which has then been followed by renewed secularisation if that revival took them above the ‘normal band’, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romania

68. Many countries are approaching maximum development (as defined by the HDI), but the minimum attendance rates would appear to be around 10-20% of the population The attendance rate for young people is generally somewhat lower than this, commonly in the 5-15% band

69. What do you think? Which countries are experiencing the most marked trends? Of secularisation? Religious revival? Stability in attendance rates? Any surprises? This study only looked at attendance: might there be a better measure of religiosity?

70. Thank you!