1. 1 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS James M. Russell III Principal Investigator Hampton University Scott M. Bailey Deputy Principal Investigator Virginia Tech November 17, 2009 AIM End of Prime Mission Review Science Results

2. 2 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Unprecedented advances in observation of noctilucent clouds - Solar occultation - Panoramic UV nadir imaging - In-situ and remotely sensed dust Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) Major step forward in understanding noctilucent clouds, their formation and variability - World class science team - State of the art modeling

3. 3 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS AIM Science Team Principal Investigator: James M. Russell III Hampton University Deputy PI: Scott M. Bailey Virginia Tech Co-Investigators Gary Thomas, CU Cora Randall, CU David Rusch, CU David Siskind, NRL Michael Taylor,USU Michael Stevens, NRL Larry Gordley, GATS Mihály Horányi, CU Patrick Espy, NTNU Michael Summers, GMU Mark Hervig, GATS Christoph Englert, NRL William McClintock, LASP Steven Eckermann, NRL

4. 4 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Noctilucent Clouds and Polar Mesospheric Clouds are the same phenomenon Tom Eklund, July 28, 2001, Valkeakoski, Finland Ground-based observers: Noctilucent Clouds (NLCs) Satellite observers: Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs)

5. 5 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS NLCs display complicated structure driven by atmospheric dynamics Bands Billows Timo Leponiemi, 2001

6. 6 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Brief mission overview What we know about NLCs AIM goals, objectives and Level 1 requirements AIM instruments and measurements Science results Summary AIM overview and science results outline

7. 7 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS AIM was launched from VAFB by a Pegasus XL rocket April 25, 2007, 1:26:03 PM PDT launch Near perfect 600 km orbit First satellite mission dedicated to the study of NLCs Observed five seasons thus far Extended mission approved for June 1, 2009 to September 30, 2012

8. 8 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS NLCs have been photographed from the ground Omaha, NB Photo July 14, 2009 Omaha, NB July 14, 2009 Mike Hollingshead

9. 9 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Commercial airline NLC Photo John Boardman, Pilot NLCs have been photographed from the ground, aircraft Omaha, NB Photo July 14, 2009 Commercial airline NLC Photo John Boardman, Pilot Omaha, NB July 14, 2009 Mike Hollingshead

10. 10 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Space Station NLC Photo Donald Pettit, Science Officer Commercial airline NLC Photo John Boardman, Pilot NLCs have been photographed from the ground, aircraft and space Omaha, NB Photo July 14, 2009 Commercial airline NLC Photo John Boardman, Pilot Space Station NLC Photo Donald Pettit, Science Officer Omaha, NB July 14, 2009 Mike Hollingshead

11. 11 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Space Station NLC Photo Donald Pettit, Science Officer Commercial airline NLC Photo John Boardman, Pilot NLCs have been photographed from the ground, aircraft and space There has been a growing public and scientific interest in these clouds in recent years Omaha, NB Photo July 14, 2009 Commercial airline NLC Photo John Boardman, Pilot Space Station NLC Photo Donald Pettit, Science Officer Omaha, NB July 14, 2009 Mike Hollingshead

12. 12 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Mysterious, Glowing Clouds Appear Across America’s Night Skies By Alexis Madrigal, July 16, 2009 | 1:00 pm | WIRED SCIENCE “Photographers and other sky watchers in Omaha, Seattle, Paris and other locations have run outside to capture images of what scientists call noctilucent (”night shining”) clouds.” Scientists seek noctilucent cloud enlightenment By Lester Haines, New Scientist, UK June 3, 2009 “According to New Scientist, skywatchers last week snapped the first examples of the clouds, although NASA's AIM spacecraft got the first indications back on 22 May.” Discover Magazine interview to appear in February 2010 CBS Evening News segment (3 minutes) on March 14, 2008 NPR and WTOP-DC radio segments, image in Nature magazine, more than 50 public media articles worldwide NLCs capture the imagination and concern of the public

13. 13 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS NLCs are changing in ways we do not understand Earth’s Atmosphere Altitude (km) Troposphere -80-60-40-20020ºCºC Temperature Usually seen poleward of 55 O but have been sighted at ~ 40 O N in recent years Have been getting brighter and occurring more frequently over the last 27 years 20 40 60 80 0 100 DeLand, Shettle, Thomas, and Olivero (JGR, vol. 112, D10315, 2007) SH NH 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 50 o – 82 o N 50 o – 82 o S Average Brightness

14. 14 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Three things are needed for PMC formation Water vapor Presence of particles Cold temperatures What could be causing the observed PMC changes?

15. 15 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS While not proven, the most plausible reasons for long-term NLC change are CO 2 and CH 4 increases CO 2 increases in the lower atmosphere cause the the atmosphere to warm The same increases at 83km cause cooling CH 4 increases lead to more water vapor in the atmosphere Both effects make conditions more favorable for NLCs to form

16. 16 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS NLCs are ice clouds that occur more than 70km above tropospheric clouds Why do these clouds form and vary? Why are long-term changes occurring? Is there a connection with global change? AIM July 4, 2008

17. 17 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Resolve why NLCs form and how and why they vary Quantify the connection between the clouds and the meteorology of the polar mesosphere by measuring the thermal, chemical and dynamical environment in which NLCs form Provide the basis for study of long-term variability in the mesospheric climate and its relationship to global change AIM goals are clearly defined

18. 18 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS The fundamental question: Why do PMCs form and vary? 4. Chemistry H2OH2O OH HO 2 H O O O3O3 O 2, M O 1 D, h h CH 4 OH O 1 D 3. Temperature Variability 5. Nucleation Environment 1. Microphysics 2. Gravity Wave Effects 6. Long-term Mesospheric Change - What is needed? AIM is providing the answers

19. 19 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Mission Type Length Parameters Preci- sion Vert. Range Resolu- tion Spatial Coverage Baseline 2 North 2 South PMC seasons Obtain each day: PMCs ,  - 5% r – 10% 75 km to 85 km 2 km vertical 15 SR or 15 SS poleward of 55 o T, H 2 O, O 3, CH 4,NO,CO 2 ~ 5 K ~ 15 % Nadir UV images N/A 2 km horizontal Poleward of 30 o Particle influx for r > 0.7  m 10%N/A Minimum* One PMC season, North or South Obtain each day: PMCs ,  - 10% r - 15% 78 km to 85 km 3 km vertical 15 SR or 15 SS poleward of 55 o T, H 2 O, O 3, NO,CO 2 ~ 10 K ~ 25 % Nadir UV images N/A 3 km horizontal Poleward of 50 o AIM Level 1 science baseline and minimum missions * CDE instrument is not included in the minimum mission

20. 20 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Cosmic Dust Experiment (CDE) measures the input of cosmic dust into the atmosphere Three Instruments on the AIM observatory Cloud Imaging Particle Size (CIPS) Nadir images Cloud particle size Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) T, H 2 O, Ice mass, cosmic dust

21. 21 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS CIPS: Cloud Imaging and Particle Size Experiment Four CCD cameras image NLCs at ~ 83 km  0.265 µm; 1 X 2.5 km pixel size Cloud morphology and particle sizes

22. 22 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS SOFIE: Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment Operates over 0.3  m to 5.3  m range T, NLCs, CO 2, H 2 O, CH 4, NO, O 3, aerosols, cosmic smoke 2 km vertical resolution A 16-band differential absorption radiometer (UV to IR) to simultaneously measure cloud properties and the PMC environment

23. 23 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS CDE: Cosmic Dust Experiment Differential mass measurements for masses, 10 -11 < m < 10 -8 g Cumulative mass measurements for masses, m > 10 - 8 g Data span June 2007 to Feb 2008 - CDE data showed increased noise after February 2008 S/C safehold Data loss mitigated by SOFIE cosmic smoke measurements 14 polyvinylidene fluoride detectors to measure the incoming cosmic dust flux

24. 24 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS SOFIE H 2 O, Ice, T, Chemistry AIM observing approach: SOFIE

25. 25 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS CIPS Ice images 6 min AIM observing approach: SOFIE, CIPS

26. 26 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS 6 min CDE Cosmic Dust o o o o o o o o o o o AIM observing approach: SOFIE, CIPS, CDE

27. 27 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS A space view gives an entirely new picture of what the clouds look like : NLCs occur all the time Highly variable orbit-to-orbit and day-to-day More structure than expected AIM Jul 8, 2008 NH Ground 60N Tom Eklund, July 28, 2001, Valkeakoski, Finland

28. 28 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS One orbit of CIPS data in July 2008

29. 29 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS NP 60N Min Lat = 60N 11-Jul-2008 Three successive orbits on July 15, 2007

30. 30 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS NP 60N Min Lat = 60N 6-Jul-2008

31. 31 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS

32. 32 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Ice Void AIM science focus before launch was on a narrow visible NLC layer centered around 83 km 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 Altitude 1-Jun1-Aug1-Sep1-Jul 2007

33. 33 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Ice Void AIM observed subvisible ice particles for the first time 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 Altitude 1-Jun1-Aug1-Sep1-Jul 2007 High SOFIE sensitivity SNR ~10 6 Ice exists from 78km to ~ 90km Visible layer centered at ~ 83km

34. 34 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Ice Void 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 Altitude 1-Jun1-Aug1-Sep1-Jul 2007 AIM observed subvisible ice particles for the first time and showed NLCs are highly variable with “Ice Voids” CIPS shows the presence of “Ice voids” An entirely new mechanism for NLC formation Not known before the AIM launch Ice Void High SOFIE sensitivity Ice exists from 78km to ~ 90km Visible layer centered at ~ 83km

35. 35 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS What is the role of temperature and water vapor in the formation of PMCs?

36. 36 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Temperature is a controlling factor in PMC formation Merkel et al., 2007 CIPS PMC frequency at 77º latitude and SABER temperature

37. 37 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS SOFIE PMC altitude and SABER mesopause - 3.5 km for 2007 - 2008 NH/SH seasons 10d Russell et al., 2009 Mesopause temperature is a driver for PMC peak altitude formation

38. 38 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Black dots: Mesopause vapor pressure Red dots: Mesopause saturated vapor pressure Blue line: Ice mass density SOFIE PMC ice mass density and MLS saturation vapor pressure and vapor pressure Sharply decreasing saturated vapor pressures at season start and rapidly rising values at the end point to temperature as the dominant factor in controlling the beginning and ending of PMC season

39. 39 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS The NLC season turns on and off like a geophysical light bulb providing clues to why NLCs form Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

40. 40 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS How do planetary waves and gravity waves affect PMC formation and destruction?

41. 41 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Sequence of CIPS Daisies showing 5-day wave Merkel et al., 2007 June 5June 3June 4June 6June 7 June 8 June 9June 10June 11June 12 CIPS sequence of daily images showing the influence of the 5-day wave on PMCs Merkel et al., 2007 June 3June 4 June 5 June 6 June 7

42. 42 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Temperature wavelet amplitudes (grey and black) Observed SOFIE clouds for ice >30 ng/m 3 (white dots) NRL NOGAPS model and SOFIE data show that dynamics can extend the length of the PMC season Time The atmospheric 5-day wave modulates PMC occurrence and can effectively extend the period of PMC occurrence by providing many days of localized regions of saturated air in the trough of the wave. Nielsen et al., 2009

43. 43 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Correlation with PMC -0.94 Correlation with SABER temperature 0.72 Chandran et al., 2009 Gravity wave frequency, PMC frequency and SABER temperature amp for 2007/2008 SH season CIPS PMC observations

44. 44 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS What are the mechanisms leading to hemispheric coupling effects on PMC formation?

45. 45 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS AIM NH PMC data and MLS SH Temp show that the atmosphere is a coupled global system CIPS NH frequency of PMC occurrence Karlsson et al., 2009

46. 46 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS What is the role of cosmic dust in PMC formation?

47. 47 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS SOFIE has provided the first satellite observations of meteoric smoke particles Cosmic smoke flux into the atmosphere is constantly changing and is at a minimum during the PMC season. (White area extinction < 6 x 10 -9 km -1 ) 200820092007 Hervig et al., 2009

48. 48 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS 2008 2009 10-D average cosmic smoke particle extinctions normalized to the respective peak value in each time series SOFIE cosmic smoke particles and models at ~ 60 km show excellent agreement Hervig et al., 2009

49. 49 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS What is needed to establish a physical basis for the study of mesospheric climate change and its relationship to global change?

50. 50 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Significant progress has occurred in multi-dimensional PMC modeling On the left are shown 30 years of PMC brightness observations by SBUV at three latitudes (DeLand et al. 2007). On the right are modeled PMC brightness for the same time and locations by Marsh and Merkel (2009). The model results are in excellent agreement with observed trends. 27 Year PMC Data Set 30 Year WACCM Model Run

51. 51 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS What have we learned from AIM data? NLCs occur all the time, they are highly variable from orbit-to- orbit and day-to-day with more structure than expected Ice exists in a broad layer from 78 km to 90 km with a narrow visible layer centered at ~ 83 km NLC structures have complex features like those seen in low altitude clouds suggesting that mesospheric weather harbors similar dynamical processes as those in the troposphere The NLC season turns on and off like a geophysical light bulb providing an important clue to what governs cloud formation The atmosphere is a coupled global system even on small scales Temperature appears to control season onset, variability during the season and season end. H 2 O plays an important and minor role.

52. 52 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS AIM Lessons Learned Recognize the wisdom and advice of the TMCO panel Place high importance on cost as well as science Have a very thorough knowledge of requirements and hold them sacrosanct Anticipate problems before they occur Plan backup approaches and work arounds Engage the entire AIM team in problem solving Involve the Executive Advisory Council in critical matters Make timely decisions Never lose sight of the mission science goal

53. 53 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS Backup

54. 54 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS CSRChange Action Date (2003) Risk Reduction SOFIE mass 50kg Streamlined design, better science March 15Mass First build spacecraft 5 th generation spacecraft June 3Cost, mass Four science instruments SHIMMER removed, science impact June 6 Cost, mass, data volume IPARemovedJune 15Cost, mass New LV contractUse existing contractJune 19Cost CDE new development Use New Horizons SDC copy July 25Cost, schedule Six CIPS cameras Four cameras, small science impact August 1 Cost, mass, data volume Timeline of major AIM actions taken after August 2002 debrief

55. 55 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS CSRChange Action Date Risk Reduction Use Pegasus HAPS to trim orbit Remove HAPS Feb 2004 ----- Total overall estimated resource savings $ 10.7 M 61 kg ----- Last major AIM action taken after August 2002 debrief and before confirmation

56. 56 November 17, 2009 Jim Russell - EOPM Review GATS AIM timeline of other major actions taken after August 2002 debrief Actively pursued alternate spacecraft bus starting in October 2002 Pursued Minotaur launch vehicle from Nov 2002 to June 2003; potentially significant cost savings Replaced baseline gyros with more expensive but more reliable and more capable units in Oct 2003 Dealt with changing launch loads from Nov 2004 to launch Replaced SOFIE steering mirror with a rigid mirror in July 2006 Developed work around to overcome intermittent loss of command capability in orbit