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EU Economy – Lessons Learned by a Newcomer: Romania Wednesday, 28 September 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "EU Economy – Lessons Learned by a Newcomer: Romania Wednesday, 28 September 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 EU Economy – Lessons Learned by a Newcomer: Romania Wednesday, 28 September 2011

2 Romanian economic developments in the European context London, September 28, 2011 Radu Şerban

3 Romania and UK – strategic partners

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10 In July 2011 only 4.7 %

11 Minimum wages Romania 268

12 Source: UNCTAD Report July 2011

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14 BP plans a new gas pipeline: SOUTH –EAST EUROPE PIPELINE, a possible alternative to Nabucco September 26, 2011

15 If you want to find enthusiastic Europeans come to Bucharest! BBC4, 19 Sept. 2011

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19 EU Funds

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21 TOURISM – huge potential

22 Convergence criteria for eurozone Inflation rate GovernmentGovernment financesfinances ERM II ERM II membership Interest rate annual governmen t deficit to GDP governmen tdeficit GDP gross government debt to GDP government debt GDP Refere nce value No more than 1.5 percentage points higher than the average of the three best performing member states of the EU max 3.0% max. 3%max. 60%min. 2 years not more than 2 percentage points higher than in the three lowest inflation member states max 6.4% 8% in 2010, 3% target 2011 6.4%, 3 % in 2012 30.8% 0 years, but constant X rate in the last 2 years 6.4% Target: to meet criteria in 2015

23 Exchange rate in Euro

24 National Bank of Romania, estimates Annual rate of inflation – red line

25 Current account balance % of GDP Including reinvested profit NCP prognosis

26 Total Risk Index: credit trends, loan/deposit ratios, debt levels,` current account balances, exports, and FX reserves Source: UBS, December 2010 Romania, between Switzerland and Germany

27 Romania’s sovereign rating by CRAs FitchMoody’sStandard & Poor’s Investment grade July 2011: upgraded from BBB- to BB+ Baa3BB+ FT July 5: Stefan Wagstyl

28 Romania: National Reforms Program 2011 – 2013 (published April 2011) Main objectives:  Resuming the growth and creating new jobs  Sustainable public finances  Protecting the vulnerable categories of population etc. Major targets GDP growth 1.5% in 2011, EBRD: 1.9%; 3.8%/2012 Inflation 4.8 % in 2011 and ≤ 3 % next year C/A deficit -4.3% Budget deficit -3% in 2012 Government debt/ GDP 30.8% Qualitative elements: A factor driven economy An innovation driven economy FromTo

29 Romania and UK – strategic partners

30 FT, Sept 15, 2011


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