1. US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Forecasting Ecosystem Shifts in Response to Climate Change Dr. Jim Westervelt Construction Engineering Research Lab Engineer Research and Development Center Dr. William Hargrove Forest Service January 2010

2. BUILDING STRONG ® Outline  Question  Approach  Results  Discussion  Conclusion 2

3. BUILDING STRONG ® Question Ideal: How and when will ecosystems shift in response to climate change? Two parts: ✔ Where can I currently find ecosystem driver conditions that match forecasted driver conditions? How and when will current ecosystems shift in response? 3

4. BUILDING STRONG ® Approach  Identify a set of ecosystem drivers  Develop global maps of those drivers ► For current and future conditions  Conduct a cluster analysis ► To group related areas  Correlate clusters with current ecosystems  Forecast future ecosystem conditions 4

5. BUILDING STRONG ® Ecosystem drivers 1.Precipitation during the locally hottest quarter 2.Precipitation during the locally coldest quarter 3.Precipitation during the locally driest quarter 4.Precipitation during the locally wettest quarter 5.Ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration 6.Temperature during the coldest locally quarter 7.Temperature during the hottest locally quarter 8.Sum of monthly Temp avg where Temp avg >= 5 deg C 9.Integer number of consecutive months where Temp avg >= 5 deg C 10.Available water holding capacity of soil 11.Bulk density of soil 12.Carbon content of soil 13.Nitrogen content of soil 14.Compound topographic index (relative wetness) 15.Solar interception 16.Day/night diurnal temperature difference 5

6. BUILDING STRONG ® Develop global maps of drivers  Choose general circulation models (GCM) ► Hadley and PCM (high and low)  Choose climate scenarios ► A1 (higher CO 2 ) and B1(lower CO 2 )  Choose time ► Current, 2050, 2100  Collect maps (for current and 8 futures) 6

7. BUILDING STRONG ® Scenarios  A1 scenarios characterized by: ► Rapid economic growth. ► A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. ► The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. ► A convergent world.  B1 scenarios are characterized by: ► Rapid economic growth as in A1 ► Rapid changes towards a service and information economy. ► Population as in A1. ► Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. ► An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. 7

8. BUILDING STRONG ® Cluster Analysis  Convert all maps to standard-deviation form  Run cluster analysis (30,000 clusters) Grouping all 9 sets across the world!! 8 Hargrove and Hoffman

9. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois 9 PCM B1 Scenario Raw Clusters

10. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois 10 Hadley B1 Scenario Raw Clusters

11. BUILDING STRONG ® Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems  Choose ecosystem map ► GAP US 533 types ► TNC Global 814 types 11

12. BUILDING STRONG ® Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems 12 TNCGAP

13. BUILDING STRONG ® Apply Correlations to Future Conditions 13 2000 2050 2100 Hadley model – A1 scenario (high-high) TNCGAP

14. BUILDING STRONG ® Results 14

15. BUILDING STRONG ® Forest Service Application 15 http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeranges/climate_change/index.html Hadley, Scenario A1, 2050 - Longleaf_pinePCM, Scenario A1, 200-2100 - Chestnut_oak

16. BUILDING STRONG ® Sample GAP – Fort Knox 16

17. BUILDING STRONG ® Sample TNC – Fort Knox 17

18. BUILDING STRONG ® Sample Similar – Fort Knox 18

19. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois GAP – Current 19 Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay

20. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2050 20 Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay

21. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2100 21 Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay

22. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois TNC – Current 22 Central Tallgrass Prairie Ozarks North Central Tillplain Interior Low Plateau Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie

23. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2050 23 Central Tallgrass Prairie Ozarks North Central Tillplain Interior Low Plateau Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie

24. BUILDING STRONG ® Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2100 24 Central Tallgrass Prairie Ozarks North Central Tillplain Interior Low Plateau Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie

25. BUILDING STRONG ® East-Cent Ill – Similar – Current 25

26. BUILDING STRONG ® East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2050 26

27. BUILDING STRONG ® East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2100 27

28. BUILDING STRONG ® Discussion  We have a process for turning GCM- >RCM forecasts into potential future ecosystem maps.  We applied the process to the last round of forecasts  Ready to apply to the next round  Do s.d. maps solve the apples-to-oranges question? 28

29. BUILDING STRONG ® Next? Two parts:  Forecasted conditions currently support what ecosystems? ✔  How and when will current ecosystems shift in response? ► Resilience ► Persistence ► Seed distribution rates ► ?? 29

30. BUILDING STRONG ® 30  Quick  Spatial  Agent-based Some Netlogo Models Fire Ants and Cave Crickets, Ft Hood Feral Hogs, Fort Benning Cedar Infestation, Nebraska Striped Newt, Ft. Stewart Gopher Tortoise, Ft. Benning

31. BUILDING STRONG ® Questions??  Sample Forest Service forecasts of movement of optimal tree habitat:  http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeran ges/climate_change/index.html  ERDC-CERL forecasts of ecosystem shifts around military installations: ► http://earth.cecer.army.mil 31