1. Energy policies and management of carbon balance in Estonia Olga Gavrilova, Tiina Randla, Raivo Vilu Tallinn University of Technology

2. Climate change is one of the greatest concerns for the global community

3. Overheating of Earth is a real danger

4. The goal of UNFCCC is ‘stabilization of Greenhouse Gases concentrations in the atmosphere at the level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate change’ The commitments of Kyoto protocol extend this to ‘achieving of emission limitation and reduction, and protection and enhancement of GHG sinks and reservoirs’

5. Estonia is an Annex B country of Kyoto Protocol, Estonia has an obligation to reduce CO 2 emissions 8% by 2008-2012 in comparison with 1990 20 million tons of oil shale was extracted and used in 1990 10-12 million tons of oil shale has been extracted and used in 1994-2003 1 ton of CO 2 is emitted per 1 ton of oil shale on burning Estonian oil shale enterprises have the right to sell “hot air” for more than €60 million The price of 1 ton of CO 2 quota was yesterday €23

6. The resources for electricity generation, 2003

7. Efficiency of electricity production from oil shale Efficiency of electricity generation 14%

8. Energy intensity of the economy, kgoe (kilogram of oil equivalent) per 1000 Euro (at constant prices, 1995=100)

9. CO 2 emission per GDP of countries of European Union, 2003

10. However, oil shale industry in Estonia is thriving currently Especially after the price of oil barrel exceeded $50 Estonia is the only offshore territory for oil shale industry in the world In this economical and political conditions we are discussing (oil shale) energy policies…

11. Renewable resources of energy in Estonia Wood 5.5-14 TWh/a Straw etc non-wooden biomass 2-13 TWh/a Biogas max 0.4 TWh/a Wastes 0.1-3 TWh/a Solar energy 2.2 TWh/a Wind energy 2.7–4 TWh/a Water energy 0.4 TWh/a (Peat) 5.3 TWh/a Current (end-)use of energy in Estonia ~10 TWh/a

12. Future of energy sector in Estonia will depend on the EU and global post-Kyoto policies

13. Carbon accounting in Estonia according to IPCC rules, 2002 Emission / SequestrationCO 2, Gg Net emission of greenhouse gases CO 2 equivalent10,938 Total emission of carbon dioxide8,726 …of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion16,971 …of carbon dioxide from industrial processes319...total removal of CO 2 -8,564 due to changes in forest biomass-5,285 due to changes in other woody biomass stock-2,311 due to CO 2 emissions and removals from soil -967.0

14. The aim of our research to consider land use related Carbon Flow Analysis (CFA) in Forestry Agriculture –Arable land; –Husbandry; to compare it with the current carbon flows, which are estimated in Estonian GHG inventory; to evaluate readiness of statistical system of Estonia for introduction of full CFA based on GIS-mapping as a prerequisite of full carbon trade;

15. The land area by different types of land use in Estonia, thousands ha, 2003 CORINE 1:100 000 Basic map 1:10 000 Land Cadastre 1: 2000 ESO Forest2,0932,2162,267 Wetlands193.7321.8267.5 Agricultural land1,4761,2631,345829 …Arable land8451,020974545 …Grassland632244371267

16. Differences between the Basic map and forest map from Estonian Centre of Forest Protection and Silviculture (CFPS) Forest land on Basic mapForest land on CFPS map

17. Carbon cycle of arable land Crops Grain, Fruit Stalks Leaves Roots Products Residues Animals Humus subsoil Human Industry Manure Waste burning respiration Export / Import 1 1.1.1 1.1.2 2.1 3 3.2 3.3 6 5.1 4 4 6 3.1 2 1,517 563 131 66,800 19,600 Seed 1,434 65 9311 9 28 1,537 Stock 1 Stock 2

18. Calculated CO 2 flows according to IPCC rules and our data Emission / Sequestration, GgCO 2 IPCC CO 2 This paper Total emission of carbon dioxide8,72613,477 - of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion and industrial processes 17,290 - total removal of CO 2 -8,564-3,813 due to changes in terrestrial biomass-7,596-14,318 …CO2 sequestration by terrestrial biomass-18,197-15,600 …CO2 emission from terrestrial biomass (felling)10,601719 due to emission from crops residues563 due to CO2 emission and removals from wetlands-39610,505 due to CO 2 emissions and removals from soil -571?

19. A proposal: start CO 2 trade also inside the countries and include beside CO 2 emission also CO 2 sequestration This will give a new perspective to the agriculture Both, forest and arable land could sequester more than 2 tons of carbon per ha per year

20. Carbon accounting and economics The change of forest and arable lands in Estonia during the last 30 years What decisions were behind of these land use changes (annual increase of CO 2 sequestration by about 5.4 Gg): economical or (and) ecological?

21. If carbon has monetary value, every decision about land use change should be taken balancing economical (ecological services, including carbon sequestration) and ecological (biodiversity) accounts

22. Carbon Flows Accounting and Economical Mechanisms should function simultaneously for the control and optimization of the processes leading to local and global ‘enhancement (of) GHG sinks and reservoirs’ and use of renewable resources (biomass, wastes etc.)