1. National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Director
NCEP 101
January 6, 2011
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

2. NCEP Office of Director
Louis Uccellini
Director
Kim Montgomery
Administrative Officer
Dennis Staley
Executive Officer
Barry Choy
Chief Science Officer
Lauren Morone
Operations Officer
Jim Yoe
Chief Admin Officer
JSCDA
Adena Fritz
Property Manager
& DAR
LaDonna Nash
Budget Officer
Barbara Eubanks
Secretary

3. Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service
Hurricane
Center
Space Weather
Prediction Center

4. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
Aviation Weather Center
Space Weather Prediction Center
NCEP Central Operations
Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
National Hurricane Center
Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

5. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Tropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts
26 FTE
46 FTE 5

6. Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community
EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
CPC Climate Test Bed
NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed
HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed
SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL
SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA
AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed
OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch 6

7. NCEP Budget Facts Historical Base Funding
Note: For FY11 we are currently operating under a CR at FY10 funding levels
$105.8
$103.9
$94.8
$94.3
$88.2
$90.1
$80.1
$68.2
$62.0
$54.8
$50.1

8. Total All Funding Sources: $118.4M+
NCEP Budget Facts
FY 2010 Allocations by Center ($K)
Center
Labor
Non-labor
Total
Other Funding Sources
FTEs OD
$1,170.0
$5,051.1
$6,221.1
$0.0 8
NCO
$8,702.0
$30,959.1
$39,661.1
$1,619.8 65
EMC
$7,202.5
$6,082.3
$13,284.8
$6,310.4 52
HPC
$6,084.8
$254.0
$6,338.8
$85.0 46
OPC
$3,586.2
$153.8
$3,740.0
$120.8 26
CPC
$6,339.5
$613.5
$6,953.0
$2,745.3 50
AWC
$7,049.7
$920.1
$7,969.8
$420.2 55
SPC
$4,425.4
$854.5
$5,279.9 34
NHC
$6,504.8
$1,068.6
$7,573.4
$315.0 47
SWPC
$6,203.1
$2,602.3
$8,805.3
$1,008.0 48
TOTAL
$57,267.9
$48,559.2
$105,827.1
$12,624.5
431
Total All Funding Sources: $118.4M+

9. Strategic Planning Process

10. NCEP’s Internal Planning Process Centered Around NOAA Strategic Plan
Services Roadmap
S&T Roadmap
NWS Strategic Plan
NCEP Strategic Plan
Individual Center Five-Yr Implementation Plans
NCEP Annual Operating Plan
NCEP Technical Operating Plan
Employee Performance Plans
NWSEO plays an important role in every step

11. NCEP Technical Operating Plans Mapping Resources to Goals
ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN
GPRA
NOAA GOALS
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARIES
NWS GOALS
NCEP GOALS
(Strategic Goals)
NCEP GOALS
(Strategic Goals)
KEY DELIVERABLES
NTOP
ELEMENTS
MILESTONES
BUDGET ALLOCATION

12. NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Internal Planning Timeline
Final NTOP
When Budget
is Allocated
Performance Measures
Goals/Objectives
Milestones
Resources ($$/People)
Annual
Operating
Plan
NTOPS
1st draft
Executive
Summary
Identify Agency
Milestones
Nov.
Dec.
Late
Sept.
Mid
Sept
Early Sept.
Aug.
Jan.
NCO
Review
Dec.
EMC
Review
Internal Coordination
Corporate Board Planning Meeting

13. Major Goals for NCEP in FY11
1) AWIPS II implementation/training 2) Implementation of CFS Version 2 w/ inclusion in EUROSIP Multi Model Ensemble and Delivery to India 3) Inclusion of FNMOC model in NAEFS (IOC for NUOPC) 4) Participation in spin up of the NOAA Climate Service 5) First application of the ESMF-based NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) in the NCEP operational model suite 6) Implementation of the first real time global ocean model system based on the community HYCOM (in partnership with the Navy) 13

14. Major Goals for NCEP in FY11 (cont.)
7) Complete Strategic Plan for the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 8) Provide options for running NCEP model suite on other research computer systems for "experimental real time model runs" and related applications 9) First operational implementation of the predictive space weather models (ENLIL) 10) First implementation of coastal/ocean models in support of the NOS/NWS "backbone" agreement for NOAA providing operational coastal predictions. In addition, need to address Tsunami program changes, NCEP support for NDFD, Aviation support for the CWSUs (depending on OCWWS planning and approval), and HFIP improvements/deliverables (through OST). 14

15. Challenges 15

16. Forces for Change
Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite
SREF
NAEFS
Climate Forecast System
Entering the JPSS era
More rapid access to hyperspectral data
GPS soundings
Higher resolution surface radiance data
Models run within ESMF/NEMS
Models run concurrently
Fully coupled
Spanning all scales
Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications
Collaborative Forecast Process
ESMF-based System
Global/Regional Model Domain
Model Region 1
Model Region 2

17. End-to-End Forecast Process

18. Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the WFOs
SPC/WFO
Watch “by county”
HPC/WFO
Winter Weather Desks
Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD
Alaska Desk
AWC/WFO/CWSU
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
CPC/ Regions/WFO/RFC
Hazard Assessment
Seasonal outlooks/CTB
OPC/WFO
Near shore  High seas
HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR
Unified Surface Analysis!
SWPC – AWC – AR
Solar/Aviation Products

19. Summary Welcome to NCEP
Service first – but service-science linkage essential for success
Collaborative forecasts – team approach will be expected as a fundamental core to our current and future operations
We all need to buy into Strategic Plan and Annual Operating Plans and execution