1. Comparability of NSC mathematics scores and former SC HG mathematics scores: How consistent is the signal across time? AMERU African Micro Economic Research Unit

2. School leaving examination scores signal the University as to applicants’: academic potential. skills set – particularly in language based and quantitative areas of study. preparedness for tertiary level education. AMERU

3. The Conversion Key Higher Grade SC to NSC Percentage80 –10070 – 7960 – 6950 – 5940 – 4930 – 3920 – 2910 – 190 - 9 HGABCDEFGHI NSC765432111 Source: Wits Admission Office, 2008 AMERU

4. Observed Pass rates 2006 - 2010 20062007200820092010 Enrolled Students Pass rate (%) Enrolled Students Pass rate (%) Enrolled Students Pass rate (%) Enrolled Students Pass rate (%) Enrolled Students Pass rate (%) ECON 1000 148067135346143752210036167545 APPM 1004 95966901638926412354679263 Weighted Average Seven courses 6357554248 AMERU

5. Research indicates that NSC mathematics may be inflated by 20% in the lower ranges Nel and Kirsten (2009) Stellenbosch University access test used as a benchmark Schoër et al (2010) Witwatersrand Standardised pre-test and Economics I Test 1 used to convert NSC scores to HG SC scores AMERU

6. SC HG 2006 vs NSC 2009 and 2010 Standard of NSC matric maths paper changed from 2009 to 2010 (Parliamentary Monitoring Group, 2010) Comparing 2006 cohort to both NSC cohorts controls for specific characteristics. 2006 wrote HG SC maths in 2005 - embedded in previous curriculum AMERU

7. The Measuring Instrument Computational Maths I – Test 1 Computational maths I compulsory for all first year commerce students. Written three weeks into the semester. New work based on school work. Highly correlated with matric maths marks Test 1 kept standard across the years. – numbers changed but questions the same – test kept confidential – questions re-ordered to promote accessibility AMERU

8. Test 1 scores APPM1004 Test1 comparison: score distribution (2006, 2009, 2010) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% <10<20<30<40<50<60<70<80<90<=100 Test1 score (%) % of Students 2006 2009 2010 AMERU

9. Delimiting the data – excluding: students >21 years repeating students foreign students students who did not write matric in South Africa the year prior to entering University AMERU

10. Comparing delimited cohorts AMERU

11. Using propensity score matching to create a more accurate conversion key. Students matched from 2006 to 2009 & 2010 by: Test 1 mark Gender Race AMERU

12. HG vs NSC for Propensity Score Matches AMERU

13. Corrected Conversion Key Percentage Category 80 – 100%70 – 79%60 – 69%50 – 59%40 – 49% Higher Grade ABCDE NSC (DoE key) 76543 NSC (Propensity Score match) 77665 AMERU

14. Comparison of deflated scores AMERU

15. Test 1 score variance by maths score category 2006 2009 2010 AMERU

16. Conclusion NSC marks generally inflated by 15% - 20%. 20% in lower ranges and 15% in upper ranges. University courses that rely on a matric maths mark as a signal may consider increasing the required cut off mark. NSC matric maths scores may be more precise predictors of performance than HG scores of 2006 cohort when deflated. AMERU