1. Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Albuquerque David Craft Aviation Products & Services Program Co-leader NWS Albuquerque Gregory Harris Weather Forecaster ZAB CWSU Gregory Harris Weather Forecaster ZAB CWSU

3. NWS ABQ Forecast Area NWS El Paso NWS Midland

4. Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

5. Smoke & Haze Obscurations NWS 6/24/02 1430Z 6/23/02 1430Z Mogollon Rim Wildfire Flagstaff Temperature & Wind Profiles 6/23/02 12Z FT AGL

6. Spring Winds Average Spring Wind 1961-1992 Average Spring Wind 1961-1992 Noon to 6 pm Albuquerque’s NWS 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% NWS

7. Rio Grande Valley East Winds High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph - 1987 - tram base –108 mph - 1990 - Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) - 1943 - Albuquerque Airport High impact on the ABQ Sunport and Santa Fe Airport Stronger events also reach Double Eagle, Taos, and Grants Airports Over-the-top events can cause hurricane-force winds in Albuquerque –124 mph - 1987 - tram base –108 mph - 1990 - Glenwood Hills –90 mph (sustained) - 1943 - Albuquerque Airport * Santa Fe Tijeras Canyon Tijeras Canyon ABQ Airport X 1200 FT drop Sandia Mtns Sandia Mtns NWS

8. Low Level Wind Shear Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM0600 06015KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS Any change in wind speed or direction within 2,000 feet AGL –Gap winds (eg. ABQ’s east winds) –Thunderstorms –Dryline –Fronts –Low level jet –Mountain waves –Land and sea breezes Example TAF forecast (nonconvective LLWS): –FM0600 06015KT P6SM SKC WS018/24030KT –“TS” in TAF implies the presence of strong LLWS

9. Thunderstorms TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT TAF or TWEB forecast = TS, then expect: –Severe icing and turbulence –Lightning –Microbursts –Low level wind shear –Potential for hail & tornadoes Beware of the freezing level Thunderstorm season –March-September eastern NM, eastern CO and TX –July-September western NM, western CO, AZ and UT NWS

10. Supercell Thunderstorms Looking WNW, Motion NE Looking NE, Motion NE Looking E, Motion NE Copyright 2000 Corey Mead NWS Back-sheared anvil Flanking Line Overshooting Top Tropopause

11. Thunderstorms? Torrance County Tornado Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3 Photo 4 NWS

12. Hail Socorro October 2004 August 2004 Sand Creek in Union County NWS

13. Microburst NWS

14. Microburst NWS

15. Microburst & Blowing Dust NWS

16. Wet Microburst Photo 1 Photo 2 Photo 3

17. Dry Microburst

18. Dry Microburst? NWS

19. Dryline www.tornadochaser.net/dryline.html USATODAY.COM Dewpoints Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west Dry/moist convergence zone Flying hazards: –Thunderstorms –Low Level Wind Shear Most common and intense in spring and early summer Daytime advances east Nighttime usually retreats west

20. NEXRAD RADAR COVERAGE Courtesy of SRI International. Cited 2006. Available on-line at: http://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.htmlhttp://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.htmlCourtesy of SRI International. Cited 2006. Available on-line at: http://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.htmlhttp://www.sri.com/esd/envtek/clients-projects/doc-noaa/nws/roc.html

21. Break Time? National Lightning Safety Institute

22. Midpoint Overview NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary NWS ABQ TAFs & TWEBs Weather Hazards –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms ZAB CWSU Forecast Products –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Internet Resources for Aviators Summary –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

23. Turbulence Types Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Thermal Mechanical Mountain Wave High Altitude Mountain Waves on Visible Satellite Imagery NWS

24. Thermal and Mechanical

25. Mountain Wave Turbulence Air Force Manual 51-12, Weather for Aircrews (1974) Rotor Cloud

26. Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

27. Visible Sign of Mountain Wave NWS

28. www.joss.ucar.edu/trex/ Visible Sign of Mountain Wave

29. West Lee Mountain Wave

30. East Lee Mountain Wave

31. “Jet stream” vs. “Jet” “Jet stream” is typically a narrow stream of wind that exceeds 50 knots, and is concentrated in the high troposphere (~FL340) “Jet” is a contraction for jet stream, but is commonly used to describe a relatively strong stream of winds from any direction and at any level (i.e. “southerly low level jet”) “Jet stream” is typically a narrow stream of wind that exceeds 50 knots, and is concentrated in the high troposphere (~FL340) “Jet” is a contraction for jet stream, but is commonly used to describe a relatively strong stream of winds from any direction and at any level (i.e. “southerly low level jet”)

32. High Altitude Turbulence Air Force Handbook 11-203 (Vol. 1), Weather for Aircrews (1997) TROPOPAUSE J J J = Jet Core NORTH

33. Mountain Obscurations & Icing 0oC0oC 0oC0oC Jeppesen Sanderson Training Products

36. Icing Clear IceRime IceMixed Ice

37. NASA – Lewis Research Center

41. Freezing Rain NASA

42. Areas of ZR/ZL

44. Icing The COMET Program

45. Icing Severity Frequency The COMET Program

49. Take the shortest route!

52. Where is the main icing concern?

53. Southern CA AIRMET

54. Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

55. Thunderstorm-Prone Regions

56. Center Weather Advisory ZAB1 CWA 292047 ZAB CWA 102 VALID UNTIL 292245 FROM 70N SJN TO ABQ TO 30S SJN TO INW TO 70W SJN AREA OF ISOL SEV TURB BLW 140 WITH SW SFC WNDS 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS 40-50KTS POSS. ZAB1 CWA 292047 ZAB CWA 102 VALID UNTIL 292245 FROM 70N SJN TO ABQ TO 30S SJN TO INW TO 70W SJN AREA OF ISOL SEV TURB BLW 140 WITH SW SFC WNDS 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS 40-50KTS POSS.

57. Internet Resources for Aviators Aviation Digital Data Service –AIRMETs, SIGMETs, TURBC, ICG, PIREPs, flight-level winds, and more –http://www.aviationweather.gov/http://www.aviationweather.gov/ RIDGE-Radar loops and overlays –Warnings, topography, cities, counties, highways, rivers –http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ National Digital Forecast Database –Graphical weather forecasts out 7 days –http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/southrockies.phphttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/southrockies.php Hourly Weather Graph –Graphs of hourly temperature, wind, RH precipitation, and more at a point location –http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abqhttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq Cell phone and PDA weather –Free 7-day forecasts, warnings, radar, satellite, TAFs/TWEBs, METARS, and more –http://mobile.srh.weather.govhttp://mobile.srh.weather.gov

58. Summary Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you anticipate weather development and its impact on your operations Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

59. Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU Gregory.Harris@noaa.gov Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU Gregory.Harris@noaa.gov

60. To access a convective forecast click here

63. To access CWSU products click here Now we’re back at the Convection Page

65. Enter a zip code to access a local forecast

66. Scroll down to access: 1.Ridge-Radar with overlays 2.Graphical forecasts 3.Hourly weather graph

67. To access RIDGE- Radar with overlays: Double click this radar image

68. Here is the RIDGE- Radar display Choose your map overlays

69. Now we’re back at the middle of the local forecast. Scroll down further to access graphical forecasts

70. To access graphical forecasts: Double click either of these images

71. Wave cursor over “High” to view this high temperature map Use red arrows to move forward or backward in time

74. To access the hourly weather graph: Double click this link Now we’re back at the bottom of the local forecast

75. Select your parameters of interest and hit ‘Submit’

76. Cell phone and PDA weather: http://mobile.srh.weather.gov Top half of the screen

77. Bottom half of the screen

78. Summary Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov Varied terrain complicates aviation weather hazards in the SW –Smoke and haze obscurations –Spring and east winds –Low level wind shear –Thunderstorms Knowledge of atmospheric mixing helps you understand & anticipate weather development Useful aviation products –TAFs & TWEBs –Center Weather Advisories –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product Access most Internet resources through aviationweather.gov –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing –Turbulence –Mountain obscuration –Icing

79. Questions? Aviation Weather Hazards in the Southwest David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov David Craft NWS Albuquerque David.Craft@noaa.gov Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU Gregory.Harris@noaa.gov Gregory Harris ZAB CWSU Gregory.Harris@noaa.gov