1. Looking Back, Looking Ahead Colorado State University June 23, 2013 Download presentation at scottlay.com

2. 1910 Fresno becomes first junior college after the Legislature authorizes high schools to offer postsecondary courses

3. 1917 Legislature enacts Junior College Act, extends courses of study to: mechanical and industrial arts household economy agriculture civic education and commerce.

4. 1921 Legislature authorizes creation of local districts Organized under K-12 laws locally-elected governing boards State Department of Education to monitor Creation of Junior College Fund Nation’s first state funding

5. 1960 formally recognized the three systems CCC mission: transfer, vocational and general ed 56 locally governed districts; 380,000 students

6. 1967 Dept of Ed oversight deemed weak Board of Governors created “Bilateral governance” 76 colleges, 610,000 students

7. 1970s - 1980s 1976 - Education Employment Relations Act 1978 - Proposition 13 1984 - first enrollment fee 1988 - AB 1725 1988 - Proposition 98 The Era of External Change

8. Before 1990CaliforniaCommunityCollegeTrustees California Association of CommunityColleges

9. Community College League of California CaliforniaCommunityCollegeTrustees California Association of CommunityColleges Chief Executive Officers of the California Community Colleges 1990 Advocacy. Leadership. Services.

10. CCC Revenues

11. 1990s-2000s 1991-94: Recession led to fee increases, cuts. 1994-2000: Strong revenue growth increased Prop 98 guarantee, fast CCC growth. 2001: Stock market collapse 2008: Real estate, banking collapse Time of significant change.

12. Ruh-roh

13. State General Fund

14. Budget Outlook

15. Proposition 98 Most common. When general fund growing more slowly than personal income. “Maintenance factor” generated. Or, lower of the two: Use if highest: Test 1: Specific percentage (~40%) of the State General Fund Test 2: Prior year, increased by K-12 enrollment and change in per capita personal income. Test 3: Prior year, increased by K-12 enrollment and change in per capita general fund.

16. Proposition 98 $4.1b suspension

17. 2013-14 Budget First positive budget since 2007-08 Access restoration, student success, and inflation One-time funds for maintenance Based on a low-ball estimate of revenues “Settle-up” likely to generate more revenue as part of 2014-15 budget

18. Meanwhile... the world has been changing.

19. 1980 61% white CCC

20. 2012 69% non-white CCC

21. Shift Happens. Are we shifting accordingly?

22. How are we doing?

23. White Asian/Filipin o/PI Black Hispanic/Lat ino 201230.4%14.5%7.0%38.6% 199251.2%14.9%7.2%19.9% Student Demographic Change Since 1992

24. How are we doing? White Asian/Filipin o/PI Black Hispanic/Lat ino Students 31.2%14.9%7.5%35.9% Educational Admins 57.6%9.3%9.9%15.8% Full-time Faculty 64.7%9.3%5.8%13.4% Part-time Faculty 65.8%9.4%4.9%11.6% Statewide - Fall 2012

27. No, how are we really doing?

29. Four Years of Change SB 1440 transfer degrees Significant reduction in “recreational” courses or “lifelong learning.” Drop of 469,000 headcount. (2.2 FTES/headcount to 2.0 FTES/headcount) Limits on community college repeatability. Priority registration (forthcoming). The Era of Internal Change

30. Enrollment What we know: demographically driven enrollment demand will subside as economy improves, economically driven demand will subside demand will widely vary among districts What we don’t know: how much pent-up demand is there because of recent rationing? could districts successfully reach underserved populations if provided incentive to?

31. CCC Enrollment

32. K-12 Graduates Change

33. Population change by county through 2060

34. Looking Ahead State’s economic outlook is moderately strong. K-12 graduates 4% lower in 2020-21 than in 2009-10. More competitive pressure from “MOOCs,” more political pressure for online offerings Fixed and accrued costs will escalate as % of district budgets. PERS, STRS, retiree health, “deferred” maintenance Low demand will give “catch up” time. Building leadership pipelines more critical than ever. 40% of CEOs expected to retire in next five years. Opportunities, and challenges ahead with divergent district needs.

35. Download presentation at scottlay.com