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SPRING FOR MUSIC (SFM) 2012 Campaign Analysis
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Executive summary Order transactions received: 2,294 total SFM transaction records for 10,095 tickets. Transactions fall into two categories: Comp tickets: 690 tickets Paid tickets: 9,405 tickets worth $226,839. Paid tickets fall into two categories: Group sales: 4,588 tickets worth $112,183 (32 orders) Consumer sales: 4,817 tickets worth $114,656 (2,231 orders) Reality check: We compared the data we received to the SFM sales report; tickets and revenue match 100%. All promotable households (HH): 1,231 1,329 orders (1.1 orders/HH) 3,095 tickets (2.5 tickets/HH) $75,132 ($61.03/HH; $24.28/Tkt.) Promotable households account for 65% of consumer sales. Non-promotable accounts: 902 902 orders made by non-promotable accounts/walk-ups 1,722 tickets (1.9 tickets/HH) $39,524 ($43.82/order; $22.95/Tkt) Please note: A promotable household has a first and last name on the record and an address recognized by the USPS as deliverable. 6/18/2012 2 Overview of SFM sales Consumer sales details Promotable vs. Non-promotable Households
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Executive summary (cont.) In-Market households: 864 920 orders (1.1 orders/HH) 2,050 tickets (2.4 tickets/HH) $49,107 ($56.83/HH; $23.95/Tkt.) Out of Market households: 367 409 orders (1.1 orders/HH) 1,045 tickets (2.8 tickets/HH) $26,025 ($70.91/HH; $24.90/Tkt) This analysis will focus on the 864 in- market, promotable, consumer households Sales channels for consumer purchases (both Promotable and Non-Promotable households; both In-Market and Out of Market) 47% of orders via internet 38% of orders in person 15% of orders by phone Promotable consumer orders averaged 1.2 SFM events per order Of the 1,231 promotable consumer households, 622 accounts (51%) were created specifically for SFM 2012 339 of the new accounts were in-market 283 of the new accounts were out of market Of the 1,231 promotable consumer households, 88 (7%) attended SFM in 2011. 82 of the returning households were in-market 6 of the returning households were out of market 6/18/2012 3 Promotable household (HH) details In-market vs. Out-of-market C. Stager order questions
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Focus on the 864 promotable in-market households Who are the SFM buyers? 6/18/2012 4
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Education 6/18/2012 All categories represented; very high concentration with college and graduate degrees. 5
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Direct response, cultural interest 6/18/2012 Very active direct response buyers; extremely high levels of cultural interest and activity. 6
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Age of head of household 6/18/2012 All age categories represented; concentration 55 years and older. 7
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Household income 6/18/2012 All income categories represented; concentration $150k+ 8
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Family structure: Number of adults, marriage, and presence of children 6/18/2012 Spring for Music buyers are less likely to have children in the household. 9
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Geographic concentration SFM 2012 Buyers: Top 12 ZIPs 6/18/2012 10
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6/18/2012 11 Spring for Music 2012 Buyer Households by ZIP Code
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Executive summary (cont.) Other Carnegie Hall Purchasing by 2012 SFM Buyers 235 promotable, in-market, consumer SFM buyer households purchased 1,485 Carnegie Hall single event tickets worth $81,872. The top 10 single ticket concerts by number of households are listed below. See Attachment 3 for full ranking.Attachment 3 We don’t have enough data to provide perspective to the list of concerts purchased; Carnegie Hall’s most popular concerts will likely appear on this list. Also, 103 households purchased 2,254 Carnegie Hall subscription tickets worth $140,006. 12 Other Carnegie Hall concerts purchased from 1/19/11 through 5/15/2012 Please note ConcertHHTicketsRevenue San Francisco Symphony 3481$4,418 The Cleveland Orchestra 2432$1,791 Atlanta Symphony Orchestra 2241$1,933 Baltimore Symphony Orchestra 1837$1,540 The Philadelphia Orchestra 3 1826$1,494 American Composers Orchestra 2 1729$1,208 Boston Symphony Orchestra #9 1722$1,027 New York String Orchestra 1627$843 Mariinsky Orchestra #1A 1526$1,275 Mitsuko Uchida 1542$2,109
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Performance of mailing 6/18/2012 13
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Executive summary (cont.) Mail campaign Campaign structure One mail wave on 4/2/2012 69,990 households targeted, plus 10 seed names Total mail results 306 responses generating 753 tickets and $17.8k The mail campaign accounted for 37% of tickets sold to promotable in-market consumer households, up from 28% in 2011. Return on investment: The mailings were not profitable. Revenue/piece mailed: $0.25 0.44% response $58 average order size Average cost/pc: $0.68 Comparison to 2011 on next slide. Please note that 35% of total SFM consumer sales were walk-ups where no name or address data was collected. Sales attributable to the mail campaign are probably underestimated somewhat. 6/18/2012 14 Campaign structure and total results ROI and perspective
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Executive summary (cont.) Campaign comparison: 2012 vs 2011 Average order increased, driven primarily by an increase in tickets/order. Although fewer concerts were promoted in 2012, the revenue generated by the mailing increased slightly. Note that Impact of Direct Mail is for promotable, in-market, consumer households 15 6/18/2012
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Executive summary (cont.) Summary of segment profitability 16 Overall, the mailing was not profitable. The only profitable segment was SFM Buyers from 2011. Modeled Prospects in Tier 1, both from Experian and List Trade sources, were close to break even. At a cost of $0.68 per piece mailed and keeping response rate (0.44%) and tickets/order (2.5) constant, ticket price would have needed to be $62 in order for the mailing to break even.
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Executive summary (cont.) Performances purchased by mail responders See Attachment 1 for additional detailsAttachment 1 PerformanceTicketsRevenue% of Total Revenue Generated by Mail Alabama Symphony Orchestra 149$3,58820.2% Houston Symphony 134$3,17517.8% Milwaukee Symphony Orchestra 134$3,17517.8% Nashville Symphony 127$3,00016.9% New Jersey Symphony Orchestra 128$2,96716.7% Edmonton Symphony Orchestra 81$1,88810.6% TOTAL 753$17,793100% 6/18/2012 17
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Two-step modeling process We matched 2011 SFM buyers to the Experian universe of households in the New York City market. Based on these matches we modeled SFM buyers based on such variables as: Education Direct response multi-buyer Interest in cultural arts Location Age, Income, Presence of children After scoring the model, we selected 97.5k households for inclusion in the list trade model. Initial preparation We received 152,229 gross records from ten organizations. After householding, these trades yielded 123,081 promotable households Final list trade model table Prospects from the market model were added to the list trade prospects. 220,662 promotable households were in the final table for modeling. Modeling We matched SFM buyers from 2011 to the model table Based on these matches, we modeled SFM buyers based on the interactions with your ten list trade partners. After scoring the model table, we selected 38,088 list trade households and 31,183 Experian households for mailing. 6/18/2012 18 Develop market model using Experian data List trade cross sell model
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Executive summary (cont.) Summary of Modeled Prospects Modeled Experian Prospects generated 118 responses 275 tickets; $6,566 revenue; $0.21 revenue/piece mailed 0.38% response $55.64 average order size Modeled List Trades from the 10 organizations generated 161 responses 404 tickets; $9,452 revenue; $0.25 revenue/piece mailed 0.42% response $58.71 average order size The top 5 lists accounted for 98% of revenue generated by modeled prospects: Experian (118 HH; $6,566) Carnegie Hall (78 HH; $5,050) New York Philharmonic (43 HH; $2,213) Lincoln Center (22 HH; $1,100) American Symphony Orchestra (10 HH; $714) Please note that households may have relationships with more than one list source but were assigned to one source as part of the merge/purge process. See Attachment 2 for additional details.Attachment 2 6/18/2012 19 Overall Modeled Prospect Performance Top 5 List Sources by Revenue
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Executive summary (cont.) Conclusions and discussion 20 The mail campaign was not profitable. Some discussion points: Sales attributed to the mail campaign are probably underestimated. 35% of consumer revenue was associated with walk-up sales without associated name and address information. We estimate that the rev/pc mailed would increase from $0.25 to $0.38 if a proportionate number of walk-up sales were attributed to the mailing. Reducing the cost/pc would increase likelihood of profitability. Average price per ticket is low. Breakeven price per ticket: two scenarios Keep the following constant: Cost per piece mailed: $0.68 Response rate: 0.44% Tickets/order: 2.5 Scenario 1, Ignore walk-up sale impact: Breakeven price per ticket is $62. Scenario 2, Include walk-up sale impact: Breakeven price per ticket is $41. 6/18/2012
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Attachment 1: Single ticket purchasing by performance Performances purchased by mail responders 6/18/2012 21
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Attachment 2: Modeled List Results by Source Results by modeled list source 6/18/2012 23
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Attachment 3: Other Carnegie Hall Purchasing Other Carnegie Hall Purchasing 6/18/2012 25
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