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21-9-20151 THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POSSSIBLE POLICY MEASURES Annalia Bernardini, Cathy Macharis Department MOSI - Transport and Logistics XII Scientific Meeting of the Italian Society of Transport Economics (SIET) Rome, 17-18 June 2010 Image source: www.london-lutoninthecommunity.co.uk/environment/www.london-lutoninthecommunity.co.uk/environment/
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 2 Overview 1.The Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy Project (ABC) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) 2.MCA-PROMETHEE method 3.PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project 4.Conclusion
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek Climate system elements Image source: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan; A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (July, 2003), modified by MOSI-T
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 4 1. The ABC project and MCA ABC Policy options groups: Technology R&D investments Operational efficiencies/Infrastructures Market based measures MCA Provides a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of those climate policy options (alternatives) through a set of criteria: Climate performance Feasibility Large scale implementation Socio-economic impact
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 5 2. MCA-PROMETHEE method definition of the problems/goals to be achieved identification of the criteria prioritization of the alternatives MCA
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 6 2. MCA-PROMETHEE method PROMETHEE & GAIA, developed by Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal at the (U.L.B. and V.U.B., 1983), Prof. C. Macharis, Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal, PROMETHEE GDSS, (1998) PROMETHEE allows the user to directly exploit the data (alternatives a n, criteria f k ) of the problem in a simple evolutive multicriteria table (Performance Matrix) extensive sensitivity analyses as well as visual representations (GAIA) of the data are available to the decision-maker particularly userfriendly software D-Sight, used for the ABC Impacts policy options assessment
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 7 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project Goal Policy options to reduce the total aviation climate impact Criteria Alternatives
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project The ABC consortium expert assessment of all the alternatives on all the criteria Performance Matrix with high scores 8
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project PROMETHEE I 01
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project PROMETHEE II
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project Walking Weights
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek 4. Conclusion ABC Impacts project second phase. Ranking of the policy measures is still under discussion within the ABC research consortium ABC Stakeholders feedback assessment to determine the respective criteria weights By applying a MCA it is possible to some extent to delineate an appropriate platform for future climate policy options compromises D-Sight software application has shown to be a valuable tool related to a complex decision problem on behalf of sustainable transport policy support 12
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VUB - MOSI – Transport en Logistiek Thank you for your attention More ABC details and information available on: http://www.climate.be/abci http://www.vub.ac.be/MOSI-T
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