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9/21/20151 Coachella Valley 2011 Competitiveness? John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.
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After Losing 8.36 Million Jobs … U.S. Job Creation Is Crawling Back +23.1%
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V Pattern of Likely Recovery U x x
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Fear Causing Consumers Confidence To Dive Again
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9/21/20155 So. CA Job Change, 1991-2011e -488,700-794,400 -9.2% +4.2%
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9/21/20156 Inland Empire Job Change, 1984-2011e +20,600 -167,900 -13.0% -0.6%
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9/21/20157 Coachella Valley, Job Changes -1,879 -14,121 -13.0%
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9/21/20158 2 nd Worst National Unemployment Rate
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9/21/20159 What About the Future? … Look At Competitiveness
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Labor Cost: 6 th Lowest of 9 Markets 9/21/201510
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Labor Force Quality: 8 th Lowest of 9 Markets 9/21/201511
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Office Space Cost: 5 th Lowest of 9 Markets 9/21/201512
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Industrial Space Cost: Lowest of 9 Markets 9/21/201513
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Natural Gas: 3 rd Lowest of 9 Markets 9/21/201514
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Electrical Cost Highest of 9 Markets 9/21/201515
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Home Prices 8 th Lowest of 9 Markets Indio 5 th Lowest of 9 Markets 9/21/201516
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Water Surprisingly Inexpensive 9/21/201517
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State Taxes 9/21/201518 State Business IncomeIndividual IncomeSales TaxGasolineProperty Tax Unemployment Tax (Avg) California8.84%9.55%8.25%46.1$1,3973.85% Oregon7.90%9.00%0.00%25$1,1673.60% Nevada0.00% 6.85%33.1$1,3442.83% Arizona6.97%4.24%6.60%19$1,1393.05% Texas0.00% 6.25%20$1,6004.66% Colorado4.63% 2.90%22$1,3222.70% Washington0.00% 6.50%37.5$1,2573.50% New Mexico6.40%4.90%5.13%18.8$5892.72% Utah5.00%0.00%5.95%24.5$8464.75% Highest 2nd Highest 2nd Highest
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Policy Conflict: Environment vs. Jobs State Regulatory Environment
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Public Health Asthma & Cancer Blue Collar Sectors Bring Rising Asthma & Cancer Risk From Airborne Toxics
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Social Justice Blue Collar Sectors Hurt Modest Income Families Living Near Factories, Rail Yards, Ports, Freeways
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California Solution Single Issue Regulatory Agencies CA Air Resources Board South Coast Air Quality Management District CA Environmental Protection Agency CA Water Resources Control Board & More
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Two Results 1. Air Quality Is Improving
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Blue Collar Blue Collar Work Is Much of Our Workforce’s Best Chance Middle Class To Reach The Middle Class 2. Downward Pressure On Blue Collar Jobs
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Few Training Barriers Few Training Barriers To Beginning Employment Mining ($96,996)Blue Collar Manufacturing ($47,933)Blue Collar Logistics ($46,665)Blue Collar Wholesale Trade ($43,492) MedianBlue Collar Construction ($41,453)Blue Collar Retail Trade($28,840) Gaming($28,385) Hotel/Motel($24,019) Agriculture ($22,793) Eating & Drinking($15,132) $13,000 Gap
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Results Of Job Suppression Unemployment Higher Than It Needs To Be Underemployment A Constant Difficulty Leading to the Middle ClassLack of Access to Jobs Leading to the Middle Class Health Issues of Poverty Divorce Spousal Abuse Drug & Alcohol Abuse Suicide Lack of Timely Medical Care Public Health Issues!
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Over 60% Of These Populations Also Stopped Their Educations With High School or Less Schooling Social Justice Issue Suppressing Blue Collar Jobs Is Also A Social Justice Issue
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Clean Air, Asthma & Cancer Are Health & Social Justice Justice Issues Health & Social Lack of Blue Collar Jobs & Poverty Are Health & Social Justice Justice Issues Public Policy Dilemma
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Concentrating Solely On The Environment After Years Of Focus on Concentrating Solely On The Environment Forgotten Priority! Job Creation Is Our Forgotten Priority!
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Competitiveness 9/21/201530 Coachella ValleyC CaliforniaF-
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Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201532 Competitiveness D thanks to CA Construction Hotels & Conventions Tourism Tourist Shoppers Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing
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9/21/201533 Existing Homes Sales Remain Strong … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures
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New Homes Sales Headed For A Record in 2011 … Thanks To Short Sales/ Foreclosures 9/21/201534
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9/21/201535 Existing Home Prices Stable Between 2002 & 2003 Level
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9/21/201536 New Home Price Back To 2004 Level … Well Above Existing Homes
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Foreclosures Issue 1,086,305 Homes In Inland Empire 35.4% All Homes
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Assessed Valuation UP … Next Move Is UP?
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9/21/201539 Demand Soaring CV Housing Affordability Sets A Record & Drives Demand 64% 14%
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Competitive Housing Prices 9/21/201540
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201541 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & Conventions Tourism Tourist Shoppers Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing
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Wheeler’s Desert Letter Hotel Rates, Coming Back! 9/21/201542 Corporate Meetings & Conventions Coming Back 2 nd quarter 2011 Coachella Valley hotel occupancy up 14.8% Average room rate up 5.4% Palm Springs Desert Community Convention Bureau Labor Day hotel occupancy is 25% higher than 2010
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Airport Volume Flat 9/21/201543 Need More Flights To Compete With Phoenix-Scottsdale
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Increased Tourist Options: Thermal Motor Sports Park 9/21/201544
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Retail Sales … Stronger This Year! 9/21/201545
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201546 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC Agriculture Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Retirees Health Care Manufacturing
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High Value Crops 9/21/201547
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Agricultural Production: A Record 9/21/201548
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201549 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC AgricultureA Clean Tech Creative Arts Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Clean Energy Initiatives 9/21/201550 Demand Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing (PACE) Palm Desert Municipal Program AB 811 Net Metering Development Skill Training To Work In the Industry Electric Vehicle Production
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201551 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC AgricultureA Clean TechC- Creative Arts Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Creative Arts 9/21/201552
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Major Films & Important Commercials Are Already Shot in the Coachella Valley 9/21/201553 Value of Filming Activity Coachella Valley Coachella ValleyRiverside Co.Share 2006$11,892,591$24,225,50049.1% 2007$10,174,750$15,336,75066.3% 2008$11,705,000$13,551,00086.4% 2009$4,732,000$9,639,20049.1% 2010$11,019,500$16,479,75066.9% Assumes Coachella Valley equal to lowest share of 2007-2009 Source: Inland Empire Film Commission
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201554 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC AgricultureA Clean TechC- Creative ArtsB- Distribution Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Logistics Links 9/21/201555
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Key Transportation Links 9/21/201556 To East To Mexico To East & Mexico
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Distribution: Back to 2001 9/21/201557
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201558 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC AgricultureA Clean TechC- Creative ArtsB- DistributionD Health Care Retirees Manufacturing
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Facilities & Medical Staff 9/21/201559
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Health Care Employment: Continued Growth 9/21/201560 OSHPD
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Age Distribution: Young & Old 9/21/201561 19.3 vs. 10.4% 27.6%
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201562 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC AgricultureA Clean TechC- Creative ArtsB- DistributionD Health CareA- Retirees Manufacturing
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Is the Past … the Future? 9/21/201563
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No Longer Just This Active Baby Boomer Retirees 9/21/201564 Now This
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Economic Base Grades 9/21/201565 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC AgricultureA Clean TechC- Creative ArtsB- DistributionD Health CareA- RetireesA Manufacturing
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Manufacturing Jobs, 2011 Back To 1997 Level 9/21/201566
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Setting Conditions For The Future 9/21/201567 CompetitivenessD thanks to CA ConstructionD- Hotels & ConventionsC+ TourismC+ Tourist ShoppersC AgricultureA Clean TechC- Creative ArtsB- DistributionD Health CareA- RetireesA ManufacturingD Over All Grade C- to C
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Other Key Current Facts … 9/21/201568
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9/21/201569 Population Growth Has Slowed
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9/21/201570 Academic Performance
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9/21/201571 What Jobs Grew?
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9/21/201572 Crime Per 1,000 Residents
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9/21/201573 2010, 2011 When Will “Normal” Start To Return? x 2012 If Mortgages Fixed! x 2015-2016 Not x
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9/21/201574 www.johnhusing.com
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