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A Statistical and Programmatic Review of the Idaho Supplementation Studies 1 Jeffrey Lutch, Sr. Fishery Research Biologist, Idaho Dept. of Fish and Game,

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Presentation on theme: "A Statistical and Programmatic Review of the Idaho Supplementation Studies 1 Jeffrey Lutch, Sr. Fishery Research Biologist, Idaho Dept. of Fish and Game,"— Presentation transcript:

1 A Statistical and Programmatic Review of the Idaho Supplementation Studies 1 Jeffrey Lutch, Sr. Fishery Research Biologist, Idaho Dept. of Fish and Game, 1414 East Locust Lane,Nampa, ID 83709. J Lockhart, Fishery Biologist, Nez Perce Tribe. PO Box 1942, McCall, ID 83638 C. Beasly FishPro, a Division of HDR, Inc., 3780 S.E. Mile Hill Drive, Port Orchard, WA 98366. K. Steinhorst, University of Idaho, Statistical Consulting Center, Moscow ID, 83844. Idaho Dept of Fish and Game U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Nez Perce Tribe Shoshone-Bannock Tribes Cooperating agencies Bonneville Power Administration

2 Evaluate the benefits and risks of supplementing spring and summer Chinook salmon stocks returning to Idaho Project Goal Supplementation effects on natural production Changes in natural productivity Identify effective supplementation strategies Recommendations Research Objectives Changes in genetic composition M&E

3 Evaluate the benefits and risks of supplementing spring and summer Chinook salmon stocks returning to Idaho Project Goal Supplementation effects on natural production Changes in natural productivity Identify effective supplementation strategies Recommendations Research Objectives Changes in genetic composition M&E

4 Experimental comparison of production and productivity between treated and control streams Experimental Design (Bowles and Leitzinger, 1991) Evaluation Levels Stream specific Broad scale Small-scale Phase I – Baseline data, broodstock development, M&E Phase II – Treatment, M&E Phase III – Evaluation, M&E Proposed Study Phases

5 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review 2002 - 2004

6 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review 2002 - 2004

7 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses applied through Phase III 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review 2002 - 2004

8 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review 2002 - 2004

9 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review 2002 - 2004

10 Determined geographic/temporal coverage Documented inconsistencies Compiled cooperative data Weir counts Redd counts Carcasses Juvenile abundance Juvenile survival Data Set Review Evaluated treatment levels

11 Determined geographic/temporal coverage Documented inconsistencies Data Set Review Evaluated treatment levels Compiled cooperative data Weir counts Redd counts Carcasses Juvenile abundance Juvenile survival

12 Evaluated treatment levels Data Set Review Staggered / Incomplete Treatment - Low adult escapement in Phase I Determined geographic/temporal coverage Documented inconsistencies Compiled cooperative data Weir counts Redd counts Carcasses Juvenile abundance Juvenile survival

13 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review

14 Objective 1. Define the extent of straying Carcass data to predict straying rates Naturally produced (unmarked) Hatchery supplementation (uniquely marked) Hatchery general production (uniquely marked) Treatments streams: General production Control streams: General production ISS production

15 Straying was widespread and often substantial Detected in all but one study stream Exceeded 50% in some treated streams Objective 1. Define the extent of straying Carcass data to predict straying rates Naturally produced (unmarked) Hatchery supplementation (uniquely marked) Hatchery general production (uniquely marked) Treatments streams: General production Control streams: General production ISS production

16 Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship Calculated redd production attributable to straying Stray proportions x redds / kilometer Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated) Plotted redd densities as function of straying Strays per kilometer vs redd densities

17 Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship Calculated redd production attributable to straying Stray proportions x redds / kilometer Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated) Plotted redd densities as function of straying Strays per kilometer vs redd densities

18 Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship Calculated redd production attributable to straying Stray proportions x redds / kilometer Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated) Plotted redd densities as function of straying Strays per kilometer vs redd densities

19 Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship Calculated redd production attributable to straying Stray proportions x redds / kilometer Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated) Plotted redd densities as function of straying Strays per kilometer vs redd densities Relationship Contributing to redd production

20 Objective 3. Determine the statistical effect of straying Repeated measures statistical design (ANCOVA) 5 treated 6 control streams Dependent variable = Redd densities Covariate = Stray redds Treatment x Time interaction

21 Objective 3. Determine the statistical effect of straying Repeated measures statistical design (ANCOVA) 5 treated 6 control streams Dependent variable = Redd densities Covariate = Stray redds Treatment x Time interaction Straying insignificant Intensify monitoring for ISS ANCOVA = Non-significant ANOVA = Non-significant Straying effects (ANCOVA)

22 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review

23 Statistical Adaptations Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Re-categorized stream designations Created partial treatment category Streams receiving <50% treatment Re-coded time variable Compensated for staggered treatments and responses Study deviations Prescribed treatments not achieved Treatments staggered Mixed Model Analysis (ANOVA)

24 Statistical Adaptations Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Re-categorized stream designations Created partial treatment category Streams receiving <50% treatment Re-coded time variable Compensated for staggered treatments and responses Study deviations Prescribed treatments not achieved Treatments staggered Mixed Model Analysis

25 Statistical Adaptations Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Re-categorized stream designations Created partial treatment category Streams receiving <50% treatment Re-coded time variable Compensated for staggered treatments and responses Study deviations Prescribed treatments not achieved Treatments staggered Mixed Model Analysis

26 Statistical Adaptations Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Re-categorized stream designations Created partial treatment category Streams receiving <50% treatment Re-coded time variable Compensated for staggered treatments and responses Study deviations Prescribed treatments not achieved Treatments staggered Mixed Model Analysis

27 Statistical Adaptations Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Re-categorized stream designations Created partial treatment category Streams receiving <50% treatment Re-coded time variable Compensated for staggered treatments and responses Study deviations Prescribed treatments not achieved Treatments staggered Mixed Model Analysis

28 Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS 1994199519961997199819992000 TreatmentsCalendar Year

29 1994199519961997199819992000 --- XXXX Stream X (Treated BY 1993) TreatmentsCalendar Year Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS

30 1994199519961997199819992000 --- XXXX ----- XX Stream X (Treated BY 1993) Stream Y (Treated BY 1996) TreatmentsCalendar Year Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS

31 --- XXXX ----- XX Stream X (Treated BY 1993) Stream Y (Treated BY 1996) - 2- 101234 - 4- 3- 2- 1012 Stream X (Treated BY 1993) Stream Y (Treated BY 1996) TreatmentsResponse Year Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS

32 --- XXXX ----- XX Stream X (Treated BY 1993) Stream Y (Treated BY 1996) - 2- 10123 - 2- 10123 - 2- 101234 - 4- 3- 2- 1012 Stream X (Treated BY 1993) Stream Y (Treated BY 1996) Stream X (Treated BY 1993) Stream Y (Treated BY 1996) TreatmentsResponse Year Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS

33 Statistical Prototype Model ClassLevelsValues Blocks9Major sub-basins Treatment3Treated, Partial, Control Stream305 Treatment, 11 Partial, 14 control Time21, 2 Year16….. -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3……. Dependent Variable = Log transformed redds/km

34 Mixed Model Results Power to detect a response in Phase II Prototype analysis compensates for study deviations Experimental analysis feasible through Phase III EffectNumerator DFDenominator DFF-ValuePr>F Treatment2190.820.4572 Time1144.150.0610 Treatment x Time224018.11<0.0001 **

35 Regression Model Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Quantified treatment (levels) Applied stray percentage Regression Analysis Rationale Model the effects of strays/treatment Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)

36 Regression Model Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Quantified treatment (levels) Applied stray percentage Regression Analysis Rationale Model the effects of strays/treatment Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)

37 Regression Model Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Quantified treatment (levels) Applied stray percentage Regression Analysis Rationale Model the effects of strays/treatment Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)

38 Regression Analysis Rationale Model the effects of strays/treatment Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level) Regression Model Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Quantified treatment (levels) Applied stray percentage

39 Regression Analysis Rationale Model the effects of strays/treatment Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level) Regression Model Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities Quantified treatment (levels) Applied stray percentage Dependent Variables = Redds/km, Juvenile abundance/survival

40 Regression Analysis VariableDFEstimateErrort-ValuePr>F Intercept10.548600.067598.120.0001 Treatment %10.610240.157023.890.0001 Straying10.913220.185454.920.0001 G810.955340.151456.31<.0001

41 Production increases with treatment/straying Regression approach feasible through Phase III Regression Analysis VariableDFEstimateErrort-ValuePr>F Intercept10.548600.067598.120.0001 Treatment %10.610240.157023.890.0001 Straying10.913220.185454.920.0001 G810.955340.151456.31<.0001

42 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review

43 Results Statistical power maintained when 25% of streams removed Study Deviations Research / management conflicts Numerical power analysis 25% of streams removed in four test simulations Prototype analysis applied Results compared to baseline prototype

44 Loss of streams may not compromise statewide evaluations but effects on other comparisons need to be examined Results Statistical power maintained when 25% of streams removed Study Deviations Research / management conflicts Numerical power analysis 25% of streams removed in four test simulations Prototype analysis applied Results compared to baseline prototype

45 I. Data set and study stream review Treatment level 2. Straying Effect on ISS evaluation 3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analysis 4. Statistical power of ISS Effect of losing study streams 5. Programmatic recommendations Treatment, M&E, statistical analysis Programmatic and Statistical Review

46 Statistical Analysis Prototype for statewide evaluation Model other effects Monitoring and Evaluation Intensify carcass surveys Increased precision Redefine Phase II and III timeline ISS Programmatic Adaptations DNA Microsatellite Analysis Separate stray production Project Coordination Project website Juvenile / adult database Work statements Reporting Redefined study design Data types meet objectives

47 ISS Original Study Timeline 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Baseline data/genetics collection Brood stock development F1 Juvenile releases Juvenile Release Adult return, supplementation Adult return, supplementation, F2 brood Control & Treatment Stream Monitoring

48 Adapted Timeline 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Baseline data/genetics collection Brood stock development F1 Juvenile releases Juvenile Release Adult return, supplementation Adult return, supplementation, F2 brood Control & Treatment Stream Monitoring 2007 2012 2004

49 Statistical Analysis Prototype for statewide evaluation Model other effects Monitoring and Evaluation Intensify carcass surveys Increased precision Redefine Phase II and III timeline ISS Programmatic Adaptations DNA Microsatellite Analysis Separate stray production Project Coordination Project website Juvenile / adult database Work statements Reporting Redefined study design Data types meet objectives

50 ISS Programmatic Adaptations Statistical Analysis Prototype for statewide evaluation Model other effects Monitoring and Evaluation Intensify carcass surveys Increased precision Redefine Phase II and III timeline DNA Microsatellite Analysis Separate stray production Project Coordination Project website Juvenile / adult database Work statements Reporting Redefined study design Data types meet objectives

51 ISS Programmatic Adaptations Statistical Analysis Prototype for statewide evaluation Model other effects Monitoring and Evaluation Intensify carcass surveys Increased precision Redefine Phase II and III timeline DNA Microsatellite Analysis Separate stray production Project Coordination Project website Juvenile / adult database Work statements Reporting Redefined study design Data types meet objectives

52 ISS Programmatic Adaptations Statistical Analysis Prototype for statewide evaluation Model other effects Monitoring and Evaluation Intensify carcass surveys Increased precision Redefine Phase II and III timeline DNA Microsatellite Analysis Separate stray production Project Coordination Project website Juvenile / adult database Work statements Reporting Redefined study design Data types meet objectives

53 ISS Programmatic Adaptations Statistical Analysis Prototype for statewide evaluation Model other effects Monitoring and Evaluation Intensify carcass surveys Increased precision Redefine Phase II and III timeline DNA Microsatellite Analysis Separate stray production Project Coordination Project website Juvenile / adult database Work statements Reporting Redefined study design Data types meet objectives

54 Questions ??

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